Iraq’s former prime minister Nouri Al Maliki is unlikely to get the backing for his nomination for a third term despite being endorsed by the current premier Mohammed Shia Al Sudani, experts told The National.
Mr Al Sudani's Reconstruction and Development Coalition was the biggest winner in the November 11 election, with 46 seats, followed by Mr Al Maliki's State of Law Coalition, with 29 seats. Both fell far short of a majority in the 329-member parliament and sought the backing of the Co-ordination Framework, a powerful group of Shiite politicians and militia leaders that brought Mr Al Sudani to power in 2022 and has once again emerged as the largest bloc in parliament.
In a surprise move last week, Mr Al Sudani withdrew his bid for a second term and nominated Mr Al Maliki for the prime minister's post. However, analysts say the move could be a tactical one.
“Mr Al Maliki is a stalking horse, he’s being used," Michael Knights, adjunct fellow at The Washington Institute, told The National. "It’s a gambit by Mr Al Sudani to make his own nomination look more acceptable,” with the aim of trying “to alarm Washington into supporting a Sudani second term”, he added.
Mr Knights pointed out that the US has said “no militia-linked politicians should take cabinet positions”, and said he believes neither Mr Al Maliki nor Mr Al Sudani would be acceptable to Washington.
Iraq has been balancing ties between the US and Iran, its two major allies, for decades. Iran-linked Iraqi factions have usually held sway over the post-election process of government formation.
Sajad Jiyad, an Iraq expert with the Century Foundation, said Mr Al Maliki does not have wide support within or outside Iraq.
He told The National: “His second term as prime minister was disastrous. Mr Al Sudani and Mr Al Maliki may cancel each other out – a compromise candidate is still the most likely outcome."
Despite ostensibly ruling himself out of the race for office, Mr Al Sudani "still harbours ambition to retain the position, something the other leaders in the Framework want to avoid", Mr Jiyad said.
Its members, who compete for power and resources, and seldom see eye to eye, have not yet decided whether to back Mr Al Maliki, he said. "I don’t think the nomination is final – clearly the Co-ordination Framework is divided and they have not reached a consensus yet."
Renad Mansour, director of the Iraq Initiative at London's Chatham House, told The National Mr Al Maliki's nomination was a surprise because he is not a viable candidate.
"Iraq's system seems to bring new compromise prime ministers in rather than incumbent or former prime ministers, especially in this case someone who is a powerful political actor," he said.
Choosing Mr Al Maliki for the position would "go against the logic of the Iraqi system, which prefers compromise weak prime minister candidates who are not a threat to the Shia Co-ordination Framework or the elites," Mr Mansour said.
Whoever they finally decide on, the process is expected to be long, with negotiations "incredibly precarious", he added.
