Egypt has broadened its military mission in Somalia after Israel's recognition of the breakaway region of Somaliland, with the protection of President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud's government now a top objective, sources have told The National.
They said Egypt's latest move in the Horn of Africa nation reflected fears that Israel's recognition of Somaliland last month could give it a foothold in a region that Cairo sees as vital to its national security.
The Egyptian government is also alarmed that Israel could use any influence it gains in Somaliland to forge an axis with Ethiopia, another Horn of Africa nation, with which Cairo has been locked in a years-long dispute over Nile waters, said the sources, who are briefed on Egypt's policies there.
Military analyst Samir Ragheb, a retired army brigadier, said: "Somaliland is perhaps the most strategic part of Somalia. It can potentially be used to hinder our [Egypt's] access to the Red Sea through its southern mouth," referring to the region that sits on the Gulf of Aden and near the Bab Al Mandeb strait, the Red Sea's southern gateway.
"The whole of Horn of Africa is of vital national security interest to Egypt. If Israel gets a foothold in Somaliland, its next step could be undermining or overthrowing Somalia's government and securing access to the Red Sea for landlocked Ethiopia."
Egypt has more than 2,000km of Red Sea coastline. It has repeatedly voiced strong opposition to landlocked nations such as Ethiopia gaining a foothold in the Red Sea, the main maritime link between Europe, the Middle East and Asia.
Somalia has strongly condemned Israel's recognition of Somaliland – the first by any country since the region broke away from Somalia in 1991 – arguing that it constituted a breach of its sovereignty. Mogadishu had similarly reacted to a preliminary deal struck in 2024 between Somaliland and Ethiopia to grant the latter access to the Red Sea.
In a bid to pressure Ethiopia to show more flexibility in their water dispute, Egypt has in recent years built up bilateral alliances and trust with countries such as Somalia, Djibouti – both fellow members of the Arab League – Eritrea and Kenya, while offering technical expertise in a range of fields to many of the 11 Nile Basin nations.
More recently, Egypt has reached agreements to upgrade the port of Doraleh in Djibouti, as well as Eritrea's strategic Red Sea port of Assab, to increase their capacity and create berths for its own warships, sources and the Egyptian government have said.
Egypt began posting troops and military advisers in Somalia in 2024 after the two nations signed a defence agreement. It has also provided Somalia with weapons and counterterrorism advisers to aid its fight against terrorist group Al Shabab. It also intends to take part in a new African Union peacekeeping mission in the country.
Egypt's contingent in Somalia is believed to number around 10,000 men, according to the sources.
"Egypt fully supports the unity, integrity and security of Somalia's territory," Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty told his Somali counterpart Abdel Salam Abdy when they met on Saturday on the side lines of an Organisation of Islamic Co-operation meeting in Saudi Arabia.
"Egypt absolutely rejects and condemns any unilateral actions or attempts to impose parallel entities or create a new political reality outside internationally recognised legal frameworks," he said.
He also emphasised what he called Egypt's commitment to the "support of Somalia's institutions and efforts to ensure security and stability, especially in counterterrorism and combating extremism".
The sources said Cairo responded to Israel's move by adjusting the goals of its military and security mission in Somalia, an impoverished Afro-Arab nation with ancient ties to Egypt.
The adjustment included a redeployment of Egypt's contingent to align with the new goals, said the sources. They gave no details.
"The implementation on the ground of the joint defence agreement between Egypt and Somalia has expanded and deepened since Israel's recognition of Somaliland," said one of the sources.
"Now, ensuring the survival of the state of Somalia and its current regime is a top objective. If the state falls or becomes unhinged as a result of outside pressure, Egypt will not be able to remain there," added the source, who warned against potential schemes by Israel and Ethiopia to undermine or topple the Mogadishu government, whose relations with Addis Ababa have been tense.
"Egypt does not want Somalia to fall prey to Israel, Ethiopia or any other foreign power," said the source.
Egypt's concern over Israel's potentially disruptive influence in the Horn of Africa comes at a time when relations between the two Middle East neighbours are at their lowest ebb since 1979, when they signed a peace treaty after fighting four full-blown wars between 1948 and 1973.
Israel's war in Gaza, which also borders Egypt, has been the main point of contention between the two nations, with Cairo accusing Israel of genocide and intentionally starving the enclave's two million Palestinians.
However, Michael Hanna, a New York-based Middle East expert with the International Crisis Group, played down the tension over Somaliland, dismissing the possibility it could boil over into violent confrontation.
"Israel's recognition of Somaliland is part of its old-school doctrine of courting minorities and non-Arabs in the region," he said. "The Israelis are happy to deal with small entities to undermine the bigger ones.
"Somaliland is just one more layer in the differences between Egypt and Israel, whose cold peace has endured for decades. With all the tension between them, there has been no rupture in their relations."
But the sources disagree, contending that Israel's efforts to forge close ties with Horn of Africa and Nile Basin nations pose a serious threat to Egypt's national security at a time when it is trying to pressure Ethiopia into entering a legally binding deal on the running of its giant Nile dam.
Egypt, they pointed out, has also been trying to persuade other Nile Basin nations to enter a collective agreement on the best use of the river's water, while offering them technical help to achieve that goal.
Egypt depends on the Nile for almost all its freshwater. The nation of 108 million views any reduction in its share as an existential threat that could disrupt its delicate food balance and wipe out the livelihoods of millions of agricultural workers.
