Experts believe it is still too early to assess whether Iran’s nuclear programme has been set back by months or many years, after reports that the damage was not as substantial as the US claimed.
In what could be a significant setback for America’s participation in the war, a report by the US Defence Intelligence Agency has indicated that the all-important centrifuges needed for uranium enrichment remain largely “intact”.
Sources at the Pentagon’s intelligence arm involved in what is called BDA (battle-damage assessment) also told CNN that the 400kg stockpile of uranium enriched to 60 per cent had not been destroyed.
“So the [Defence Intelligence Agency] assessment is that the US set them back maybe a few months, tops,” the official said.
But the agency's report contrasts with other assessments, including from Iran. Its Foreign Ministry said the facilities had been “badly damaged”.
Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei told Al Jazeera TV that “our nuclear installations have been badly damaged, that’s for sure” after the repeated attacks.
And the Institute for Science and International Security said the combined strikes had “effectively destroyed” Iran’s uranium enrichment processors.
“Israel's and US attacks have effectively destroyed Iran’s centrifuge enrichment programme,“ the institute said. “It will be a long time before Iran comes anywhere near the capability it had before the attack.
"That being said, there are residuals such as stocks of 60 per cent, 20 per cent, and 3-5 per cent enriched uranium and the centrifuges manufactured but not yet installed at Natanz or Fordow. These non-destroyed parts pose a threat as they can be used in the future to produce weapon-grade uranium.”
The Washington think tank on nuclear proliferation said the six entry point craters of the GBU-57 bunker-busters were above two weak points, and that bombs would have detonated inside the site, possibly causing immense damage to centrifuges in a confined space.
US President Donald Trump’s view was that the nuclear sites had been “completely and totally obliterated” by the 14 Massive Ordnance Penetrators dropped by B-2 stealth bombers. Mr Trump said the news reports of the assessment betrayed the bravery of the pilots and air crew involved in the operation.
The sequenced dropping of the 13,600kg GBU-57 bunker busters, which are supposed to penetrate up to 100 metres of reinforced concrete, was their first operational use.
While the DIA sources said they did not destroy the Fordow plant, which is buried deep in a mountain near Qoms, other assessments suggest the bomb damage will make it very difficult to advance the uranium enrichment to the 95 per cent needed for a nuclear weapon.
Nuclear weapons specialist Hamish de Bretton Gordon, who believes the attacks could have set back Iran’s programme by years, said an on-site investigation was need for a full assessment.
“It’s still too early to get definitive BDA at the moment as most of the damage is way below ground and they need to have a look,” he told The National.
While the White House acknowledged the DIA’s report did exist, it claimed that the top-secret assessment was “flat-out wrong” and had been put out to “demean” the President.
Mr Trump also said more intelligence supporting his claims was coming in. “The site has been demolished,” he said at the end of the Nato summit in Europe.
But he also acknowledged that the early intelligence was “inconclusive” and hinted that Israel would provide a clearer assessment in the coming days.
The International Atomic Energy Agency said Israel’s air strikes damaged or destroyed several thousand centrifuges at the Natanz facility after hitting the Pilot Fuel Enrichment Plant above ground.
Russia also contributed to the damage debate by suggesting that neither side yet knew the true extent of the destruction.
"The one that carried out the strikes believes significant damage was inflicted,” said Kremlin foreign policy aide Yuri Ushakov. “And the one who received these strikes believes that everything was prepared in advance and that these objects did not suffer excessive, significant damage.”
Israel’s initial calculation has been that the damage on Fordow might not have been devastating but was also likely to have set back the programme by at least two years.
The Pentagon intelligence report might be flawed but the coming weeks will reveal if Mr Trump needs to send in his bombers in to Iran once again.
Ten tax points to be aware of in 2026
1. Domestic VAT refund amendments: request your refund within five years
If a business does not apply for the refund on time, they lose their credit.
2. E-invoicing in the UAE
Businesses should continue preparing for the implementation of e-invoicing in the UAE, with 2026 a preparation and transition period ahead of phased mandatory adoption.
3. More tax audits
Tax authorities are increasingly using data already available across multiple filings to identify audit risks.
4. More beneficial VAT and excise tax penalty regime
Tax disputes are expected to become more frequent and more structured, with clearer administrative objection and appeal processes. The UAE has adopted a new penalty regime for VAT and excise disputes, which now mirrors the penalty regime for corporate tax.
5. Greater emphasis on statutory audit
There is a greater need for the accuracy of financial statements. The International Financial Reporting Standards standards need to be strictly adhered to and, as a result, the quality of the audits will need to increase.
6. Further transfer pricing enforcement
Transfer pricing enforcement, which refers to the practice of establishing prices for internal transactions between related entities, is expected to broaden in scope. The UAE will shortly open the possibility to negotiate advance pricing agreements, or essentially rulings for transfer pricing purposes.
7. Limited time periods for audits
Recent amendments also introduce a default five-year limitation period for tax audits and assessments, subject to specific statutory exceptions. While the standard audit and assessment period is five years, this may be extended to up to 15 years in cases involving fraud or tax evasion.
8. Pillar 2 implementation
Many multinational groups will begin to feel the practical effect of the Domestic Minimum Top-Up Tax (DMTT), the UAE's implementation of the OECD’s global minimum tax under Pillar 2. While the rules apply for financial years starting on or after January 1, 2025, it is 2026 that marks the transition to an operational phase.
9. Reduced compliance obligations for imported goods and services
Businesses that apply the reverse-charge mechanism for VAT purposes in the UAE may benefit from reduced compliance obligations.
10. Substance and CbC reporting focus
Tax authorities are expected to continue strengthening the enforcement of economic substance and Country-by-Country (CbC) reporting frameworks. In the UAE, these regimes are increasingly being used as risk-assessment tools, providing tax authorities with a comprehensive view of multinational groups’ global footprints and enabling them to assess whether profits are aligned with real economic activity.
Contributed by Thomas Vanhee and Hend Rashwan, Aurifer
If you go
The flights
There are various ways of getting to the southern Serengeti in Tanzania from the UAE. The exact route and airstrip depends on your overall trip itinerary and which camp you’re staying at.
Flydubai flies direct from Dubai to Kilimanjaro International Airport from Dh1,350 return, including taxes; this can be followed by a short flight from Kilimanjaro to the Serengeti with Coastal Aviation from about US$700 (Dh2,500) return, including taxes. Kenya Airways, Emirates and Etihad offer flights via Nairobi or Dar es Salaam.
Founders: Abdulmajeed Alsukhan, Turki Bin Zarah and Abdulmohsen Albabtain.
Based: Riyadh
Offices: UAE, Vietnam and Germany
Founded: September, 2020
Number of employees: 70
Sector: FinTech, online payment solutions
Funding to date: $116m in two funding rounds
Investors: Checkout.com, Impact46, Vision Ventures, Wealth Well, Seedra, Khwarizmi, Hala Ventures, Nama Ventures and family offices
How to wear a kandura
Dos
- Wear the right fabric for the right season and occasion
- Always ask for the dress code if you don’t know
- Wear a white kandura, white ghutra / shemagh (headwear) and black shoes for work
- Wear 100 per cent cotton under the kandura as most fabrics are polyester
Don’ts
- Wear hamdania for work, always wear a ghutra and agal
- Buy a kandura only based on how it feels; ask questions about the fabric and understand what you are buying
Sukuk explained
Sukuk are Sharia-compliant financial certificates issued by governments, corporates and other entities. While as an asset class they resemble conventional bonds, there are some significant differences. As interest is prohibited under Sharia, sukuk must contain an underlying transaction, for example a leaseback agreement, and the income that is paid to investors is generated by the underlying asset. Investors must also be prepared to share in both the profits and losses of an enterprise. Nevertheless, sukuk are similar to conventional bonds in that they provide regular payments, and are considered less risky than equities. Most investors would not buy sukuk directly due to high minimum subscriptions, but invest via funds.
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Winners
Ballon d’Or (Men’s)
Ousmane Dembélé (Paris Saint-Germain / France)
Ballon d’Or Féminin (Women’s)
Aitana Bonmatí (Barcelona / Spain)
Kopa Trophy (Best player under 21 – Men’s)
Lamine Yamal (Barcelona / Spain)
Best Young Women’s Player
Vicky López (Barcelona / Spain)
Yashin Trophy (Best Goalkeeper – Men’s)
Gianluigi Donnarumma (Paris Saint-Germain and Manchester City / Italy)
Best Women’s Goalkeeper
Hannah Hampton (England / Aston Villa and Chelsea)
Men’s Coach of the Year
Luis Enrique (Paris Saint-Germain)
Women’s Coach of the Year
Sarina Wiegman (England)
Company Profile
Founder: Omar Onsi
Launched: 2018
Employees: 35
Financing stage: Seed round ($12 million)
Investors: B&Y, Phoenician Funds, M1 Group, Shorooq Partners
New UK refugee system
- A new “core protection” for refugees moving from permanent to a more basic, temporary protection
- Shortened leave to remain - refugees will receive 30 months instead of five years
- A longer path to settlement with no indefinite settled status until a refugee has spent 20 years in Britain
- To encourage refugees to integrate the government will encourage them to out of the core protection route wherever possible.
- Under core protection there will be no automatic right to family reunion
- Refugees will have a reduced right to public funds
Tewellah by Nawal Zoghbi is out now.
