Experts believe it is still too early to assess whether Iran’s nuclear programme has been set back by months or many years, after reports that the damage was not as substantial as the US claimed.
In what could be a significant setback for America’s participation in the war, a report by the US Defence Intelligence Agency has indicated that the all-important centrifuges needed for uranium enrichment remain largely “intact”.
Sources at the Pentagon’s intelligence arm involved in what is called BDA (battle-damage assessment) also told CNN that the 400kg stockpile of uranium enriched to 60 per cent had not been destroyed.
“So the [Defence Intelligence Agency] assessment is that the US set them back maybe a few months, tops,” the official said.
But the agency's report contrasts with other assessments, including from Iran. Its Foreign Ministry said the facilities had been “badly damaged”.
Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei told Al Jazeera TV that “our nuclear installations have been badly damaged, that’s for sure” after the repeated attacks.
And the Institute for Science and International Security said the combined strikes had “effectively destroyed” Iran’s uranium enrichment processors.
“Israel's and US attacks have effectively destroyed Iran’s centrifuge enrichment programme,“ the institute said. “It will be a long time before Iran comes anywhere near the capability it had before the attack.
"That being said, there are residuals such as stocks of 60 per cent, 20 per cent, and 3-5 per cent enriched uranium and the centrifuges manufactured but not yet installed at Natanz or Fordow. These non-destroyed parts pose a threat as they can be used in the future to produce weapon-grade uranium.”
The Washington think tank on nuclear proliferation said the six entry point craters of the GBU-57 bunker-busters were above two weak points, and that bombs would have detonated inside the site, possibly causing immense damage to centrifuges in a confined space.
US President Donald Trump’s view was that the nuclear sites had been “completely and totally obliterated” by the 14 Massive Ordnance Penetrators dropped by B-2 stealth bombers. Mr Trump said the news reports of the assessment betrayed the bravery of the pilots and air crew involved in the operation.
The sequenced dropping of the 13,600kg GBU-57 bunker busters, which are supposed to penetrate up to 100 metres of reinforced concrete, was their first operational use.
While the DIA sources said they did not destroy the Fordow plant, which is buried deep in a mountain near Qoms, other assessments suggest the bomb damage will make it very difficult to advance the uranium enrichment to the 95 per cent needed for a nuclear weapon.
Nuclear weapons specialist Hamish de Bretton Gordon, who believes the attacks could have set back Iran’s programme by years, said an on-site investigation was need for a full assessment.
“It’s still too early to get definitive BDA at the moment as most of the damage is way below ground and they need to have a look,” he told The National.
While the White House acknowledged the DIA’s report did exist, it claimed that the top-secret assessment was “flat-out wrong” and had been put out to “demean” the President.
Mr Trump also said more intelligence supporting his claims was coming in. “The site has been demolished,” he said at the end of the Nato summit in Europe.
But he also acknowledged that the early intelligence was “inconclusive” and hinted that Israel would provide a clearer assessment in the coming days.
The International Atomic Energy Agency said Israel’s air strikes damaged or destroyed several thousand centrifuges at the Natanz facility after hitting the Pilot Fuel Enrichment Plant above ground.
Russia also contributed to the damage debate by suggesting that neither side yet knew the true extent of the destruction.
"The one that carried out the strikes believes significant damage was inflicted,” said Kremlin foreign policy aide Yuri Ushakov. “And the one who received these strikes believes that everything was prepared in advance and that these objects did not suffer excessive, significant damage.”
Israel’s initial calculation has been that the damage on Fordow might not have been devastating but was also likely to have set back the programme by at least two years.
The Pentagon intelligence report might be flawed but the coming weeks will reveal if Mr Trump needs to send in his bombers in to Iran once again.
