Tehran was quiet and people apprehensive on Tuesday morning as news came through of a ceasefire with Israel and subsequent violations, residents of the Iranian capital said.
“People are being cautious. Everywhere was closed, except two or three cafes,” a resident told The National. “It got a bit busier around noon. People were uncertain. Then Israeli planes came and broke the sound barrier.”
At least 610 people have been killed and more than 4,700 wounded in Iran since the start of the war with Israel on June 13, Iran’s Health Ministry has said. In Israel, the death toll rose to at least 28 after an Iranian attack on the southern city of Beersheba hours before the ceasefire came into force.
The ceasefire was announced by US President Donald Trump hours after Iran retaliated for American strikes on three of its nuclear plants by launching missiles at Al Udeid US military base in Qatar on Monday evening.
In Iran, there was hope that the ceasefire would hold, but an awareness that it might not. In the hours after it was announced, both sides traded accusations of breaching the agreement.
“The ceasefire is very vulnerable, especially given Israel’s history in violating these kinds of agreements,” Seyed Emamian, assistant professor at Tehran Polytechnic University, told The National. In Lebanon, Israel has continued to strike targets that it says are linked to the Tehran-backed militant group Hezbollah, despite a ceasefire following a conflict last year.
There was a “sense of national pride” that Iran claimed the last strike before the ceasefire went into effect, added Mr Emamian, who is also co-founder of Iran’s Governance and Policy think tank.
Some Iranians also supported the attack on Al Udeid in Qatar, which was carried out by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
Iranian state television highlighted how the ceasefire came shortly after the attack on Al Udeid, and broadcast pictures of people celebrating in the streets of Tehran. Revolutionary Guard commander Maj Gen Mohammad Pakpour said further US strikes on Iran would draw “more crushing responses”, in remarks carried by the IRGC-aligned Tasnim news agency.
At the same time, the strikes appeared to have been carefully choreographed, and allowed Tehran to show that it had responded to the US strikes on its territory while minimising the chances of further escalation.
They were communicated in advance, framed by officials as an attack on the US and not on Qatar, and did not lead to any casualties.
Some Iranians were less celebratory over an attack on the soil of a neighbouring country, at a time when Iran is trying to improve relations with its Gulf neighbours.
“Ordinary people” who do not support the Iranian government, “were shocked by last night's violent attack", the resident of Tehran said.
Physical and emotional toll
Iranians described the past 12 days as “extremely difficult”. As well as the destruction of civilian buildings as well as military installations, the emotional toll has been immense. Thousands of people have fled major cities such as Tehran and Isfahan to seek safety in smaller urban centres. Property has been damaged and destroyed, and businesses have been closed.
With Israeli attacks occurring daily and a lack of adequate shelters or a warning network, first responders used Instagram to share advice on on how to minimise exposure during an attack, and others shared tips for keeping children as calm as possible. Internet interruptions increased fear and anxiety as they prevented friends and family from communicating with each other.
“It was 12 really difficult days, especially for women, children, the elderly, workers and also for Afghan migrants,” another resident of Tehran told The National, referring to millions of Afghans who often work low-paid jobs in Iran. “I hope the ceasefire sticks and it results in peace.”
Businesses, already struggling with inflation above 30 per cent and power shortages, were badly affected by the conflict, the resident, a businessman, continued.
“Almost all this time, most of the private sector was closed. Only factories producing basic goods were open and the government also worked at 30 per cent capacity, and foreign and domestic trade practically stopped for a short time,” he said.
The ceasefire announcement had enabled many people to return to work, he said. “We also started working in our company with half the staff today.”
However, there are fears that a ceasefire would simply enable Israel to recover from the damage caused by the few Iranian missiles that made impact, and restock its air defence systems that intercepted most of them.
“There is a group of critics that think this interruption will benefit Israel more,” Mr Emamian said.
Uncertain future
Iranians are aware that the situation is not stable, and what happens next is uncertain.
Even some government officials are unsure of Iran's next steps, aware that the ceasefire with Israel is an unwritten agreement negotiated indirectly with a country that they do not recognise.
After the Israel launched its attacks on June 13, Iranian officials insisted they would not return to the nuclear negotiations with the US, which had been scheduled to reconvene for a sixth round just two days later.
Israel has opposed the talks aimed at containing Iran's nuclear programme in exchange for the lifting of US sanctions, and there is no guarantee that it will not attack again if Washington and Tehran resume negotiations.
At the same time, Iran's leaders could face more domestic opposition to negotiations with a country that participated in direct bombings of its territory, and is seen as Israel’s main enabler in the 12-day war.
“It is really impossible to comment at the moment,” a senior government official told The National when asked whether Iran would return to talks with the US.
“We are facing the conditions of an unwritten and fragile ceasefire. So we have to wait and see, and if this situation stabilises, then we will move on to the next steps and reactions from the parties.”
