All eyes on Trump's 'very big announcement' as he returns to Gulf

Live updates: Follow the latest on Trump's Gulf trip

Touching down at Riyadh airport, the tension is palpable. As you drive from the airport into central Riyadh, the flags of the US and Saudi Arabia flutter in the wind along the route.

The destination is the Ritz-Carlton, where a business forum is part of President Donald Trump's three-state tour of the Gulf. This is the first official foreign trip of Mr Trump's second term, and when he lands on Tuesday morning, the objective is to do deals and to expand spheres of influence.

Let's talk about the deals first of all. This is where the companies that are also attending come in: Larry Fink, dealmaker-extraordinaire for BlackRock; Jane Fraser from Citibank; Kelly Ortberg, chief executive of Boeing; and Nvidia boss Jensen Huang.

Defence, AI and nuclear know-how

So what's in play? Well, right now, Saudi Arabia has committed $600 billion of investment in the US, while the UAE has committed $1.4 trillion over the next 10 years.

Expectations are high that Saudi Arabia will raise the game from $600 billion to a higher number. We've been promised this by Mr Trump, that something very big is going to be announced. The question is, what will it be?

Will it be on AI – days ahead of a Joe Biden-era plan to curb foreign access to cutting-edge chips?

Will it be on security? People are tipping defence and nuclear as being perhaps the most prominent areas where deals could be done. The kingdom is known to be keen to push ahead with a civilian nuclear power plan, and is looking for expertise to make it happen.

When it comes to this slightly bigger story, this is about spheres of influence. As the US moves towards, some would say, a more splendid isolation, why try to start this new relationship with Saudi Arabia?

US favour

Perhaps there is an additional subplot to be considered more deeply.

Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar lie at that fault line between East and West, between the US and China. And this trip is very much “come do your deals in the US, we will perhaps even expedite those more quickly for you from your sovereign wealth funds”.

The subplot is, of course, a bigger and grander security bargain for the Gulf and the Middle East. Again, spheres of influence, because China wants to encroach where the US is said to be withdrawing from.

China wants to yield a new form of power, where the US may retrench. And that is the essence of what Mr Trump wants to make sure does not happen.

He wants to ensure that these Gulf nations, their wealth and their capacity to deploy are swayed very closely towards the US. And for that, you have got to have a grand bargain.

Competition

So that's what's on the cards for Saudi Arabia and the UAE. But you've got to hand it to Qatar for looking to shine more brightly than your neighbours. They've offered, according to reports, a fully fitted-out 747 to serve as the next Air Force One. The details, we understand, are still to be worked out.

And finally, the other major story is that Qatar may be in the market for a 100-jet Boeing plane order. So the deal flow is already starting. Let's see what their neighbours deliver.