After months of simmering tensions, Egypt's relations with former foe Israel are nearing the point of open enmity, with distrust between the pair fuelled by proposals to resettle Palestinians in Egypt's Sinai Peninsula and claims that Cairo may be boosting its forces near Israel's border in preparation for war.
Sources familiar with the matter have also told The National that Egypt's recent arms purchases, including a deal for an advanced Chinese-made air defence system, is contributing to the heightened tension, with Israel's media sounding the alarm over Egypt's growing military might and raising questions about Cairo's intentions.
Relations between the Middle East neighbours have been tense since the Gaza war between Hamas and Israel broke out in October 2023, but the tension rose significantly in May last year when Israel seized a strip of land running the length of Egypt's border with Gaza on the Palestinian side, a move that has angered Cairo, which claimed it was a serious breach of its 1979 peace treaty with Israel and subsequent accords.
Tension rose again as Israel embraced and began to act upon a proposal first made in January by US President Donald Trump to resettle Gaza's 2.3 million Palestinians in Egypt and Jordan before Washington takes over the enclave on the east Mediterranean coast and turns it into a glitzy resort.
Significantly, the leaders of Egypt and Israel have not spoken directly about the deterioration in relations, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's right-wing government, according to the sources, leaking to loyal media outlets its concerns about Egypt's troop reinforcement in the Sinai Peninsula – the main theatre of Egypt's four full-fledged wars against Israel – and the aim behind its weapons procurement drive.
The sources said Israel has repeatedly complained to Egypt about what it sees as “unauthorised” military infrastructure in parts of Sinai that, under the terms of the peace treaty, should be demilitarised. The complaints have been relayed in person by officials from Israel's Mossad spy agency who have been frequently visiting Cairo for Gaza ceasefire negotiations with Egyptian and Qatari mediators, they added.
Mr Netanyahu complained to Mr Trump at their White House meeting earlier this month about Egypt's military build-up and infrastructure in Sinai, the sources said, and asked the American leader to persuade the Egyptians to pull back from the border.
The Israeli media outlets loyal to Mr Netanyahu's government have more recently been sounding the alarm after news broke of Egypt purchasing and deploying of the Chinese-made, long-range HQ-9B air defence system that is widely believed to be on par with Russia's S-400 system.
Breaking with past practice, the deal with China was not announced by the Egyptian military. It was left to a retired army general, Samir Farag, to announce its arrival and deployment on a television talk show last week. However, at around the same time, the military said Egyptian and Chinese units were conducting aerial war drills that began in Egypt on April 15 and will continue until the end of the month.
Egypt's military, which enforces a stringent code of secrecy and controls media coverage of its affairs, has in recent years regularly publicised the purchase and arrival of multibillion-dollar weapon systems that included naval troop and helicopter carriers, submarines, fighter jets and missile systems.
“Egypt is dealing with the rapidly developing and grave events in the Middle East with maturity, political wisdom and restraint, but at the same time it does not rule out the use of military power to defend its interests,” said Egyptian analyst Khaled Okasha, head of the Cairo-based Egyptian Centre for Strategic Studies, a think tank known to be close to the government.
President Abdel Fattah El Sisi has meanwhile used diplomatic language to condemn what he has frequently described as Israel's scorched earth tactics in Gaza to make the territory unfit for human habitation, thus forcing Palestinians to seek refuge elsewhere, namely Sinai, as well as its use of food as a weapon.
Separately, the foreign ministry has used strong language to denounce every Israeli action perceived in Cairo as heavy-handed, expansionist or oblivious to the lives and suffering of civilians, whether they are in Gaza, Lebanon or Syria.
After Israel's capture of the Gaza border strip, which it calls the “Philadelphi Corridor”, the foreign ministry said it was joining South Africa in its case before the International Court of Justice that alleged Israel committed genocide in Gaza.
Israel contends that underground tunnels running under the Egypt-Gaza border have been used to smuggle weapons and dual-use materials for Hamas. Moreover, it argues that, just as it made an exception and allowed Egypt to send troops and heavy arms to the demilitarised part of Sinai to fight Islamic extremists in recent years, it too wanted to keep its troops in the corridor to fight Hamas militants.
While Mr El Sisi and his government showed relative restraint in their public pronouncements on Israel, the task of projecting Egypt's rapidly growing enmity towards Israel, as well as some sabre-rattling, was left to loyal commentators, including retired army generals, who nightly appear on television talk shows to deliver messages that “official Egypt” wants to put out, said the sources.
These messages include stern warnings against forcing Gaza's Palestinians to move to the sparsely populated Sinai Peninsula, arguing that such action would pose a national security threat that Cairo will not tolerate. They also include accounts of Egypt's military capabilities.
Sometimes, they remind viewers of Egypt's last war with Israel in 1973, when Egyptian troops crossed the Suez Canal in a surprise attack that seized Israeli fortifications on the waterway's east bank in what was then Israeli-occupied Sinai.
Scores of social media accounts known to be controlled by the government disseminate posts filled with nationalist, anti-Israeli messages and calling on Egyptians to place their trust in Mr El Sisi, a former army general, and the military to deal with Israel.
On the ground, Egypt has since the Gaza war staged war-footing and intensely publicised drills involving its Third Army, which is chiefly tasked with defending Sinai and the Suez Canal. These involved use of live munitions, tens of thousands of troops and hundreds of tanks, fighting vehicles and armoured personnel carriers.
It has also placed on high alert units deployed on the west side of the Suez Canal facing Sinai, according to the sources, with Defence Minister and armed forces' commander Gen Abdel Maguid Saqr recently assuring the nation that the military was ready and capable of dealing with any threat to its security.
“It all comes down to making sure that your potential enemy realises you're up to the fight if one is unavoidable,” said one of the sources. “It's a kind of deterrence that should make the enemy think twice before doing something stupid; and that, in turn, can safeguard the peace.”
Notably, some of the messages sent out by Egypt and its state institutions travel in a different direction, something that the sources said was designed to calm Egyptians angered by Israel's actions in Gaza and whose support for Palestinians' rights has become part of their identity for many.
Mr El Sisi, for example, has publicly emphasised that peace remained Egypt's strategic choice, while the Dar Al Eftaa, the state's highest arbiter on religious matters, gave a public rebuke this month to Muslim clerics who issued edicts saying war against Israel in solidarity with the Palestinians in Gaza was a holy duty.
“Supporting the Palestinian people's legitimate rights is a moral and humanitarian duty, but only on condition that it is within the framework of their interest,” said a statement by Dar Al Eftaa. “Anything else will serve certain agendas or lead to dangerous adventures that will bring more destruction, displacement and calamities upon the Palestinian people.”
Egypt's US-sponsored peace treaty with Israel is widely viewed as a cornerstone of regional stability. Its regional ramifications live to this day, from signalling Egypt's exit from the cold war-era Soviet camp to the start of its close relations with the US, Israel's chief benefactor and supporter.
The treaty has allowed Egypt to receive billions of dollars in US aid over the years, including an annual $1.3 billion in military assistance. US economic aid also helped transform Egypt's economy after years of half-heartedly embracing a socialist ideology.
However, the peace with Israel has proved to be a “cold” one, with the pair co-operating on security and counter-terrorism, an arrangement that has grown significantly deeper in the decade or so before the latest Gaza war; all while Israel remained the main potential adversary in the war doctrine of the Egyptian military and most Egyptians shunning dealing with Israel on any level.
