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Lebanon is in a race against time, a week before a crucial election session, to agree on the next president, a step that is part of a ceasefire agreement that has halted the war between Hezbollah and Israel.
The country has been without a president since October 2022. The US, France and other countries have been calling for the election of a new head of state to avoid a power vacuum and help stabilise the country's political landscape.
Official sources in Beirut told The National in November, hours after the ceasefire took effect, that Lebanon “must” elect a president within the first 60-day truce with Israel that expires on January 26 as part of the ceasefire deal that stopped the war with Hezbollah.
Despite the urgency, political parties have yet to agree on a candidate, sources in Beirut said. It remains difficult for anyone to get elected without a prior agreement, given the country's deeply divided parliament, where no faction holds a majority.
“The countdown to the election day next Thursday has begun, and the calculations are becoming increasingly complex in terms of the most likely candidate,” a parliamentary source told The National.
“We haven’t seen external interference in the issue of electing a president, but rather efforts to encourage and urge agreement on the candidate,” added the source who spoke on the condition of anonymity.
Lebanon’s confessional system reserves the presidency for a Maronite Christian, the premiership for a Sunni Muslim, and the speaker of parliament for a Shiite Muslim. In the absence of a president, state authority lies with the Prime Minister and his cabinet. However, Najib Mikati’s caretaker government has limited powers, exacerbating Lebanon’s political and economic paralysis.
The country remains mired in one of the worst economic crises in modern history, worsened by the recent war with Israel, which left large areas of the country in ruins. Electricity, clean water and medicines are in critically short supply, further straining the already struggling population.
Hezbollah, represented in both parliament and government, has persistently backed Suleiman Frangieh, a close ally of former Syrian President Bashar Al Assad. However, recent remarks from the group's leader Naim Qassem hinted at a potential shift. He suggested the group might adopt a more co-operative approach, supporting efforts to elect a president and contribute to reconstruction.
Previously, Hezbollah and its allies in Lebanon contributed to a prolonged political deadlock, leading to a two-year presidential vacancy. This impasse ended in October 2016 when their ally, Michel Aoun, was elected president. Mr Aoun served a six-year term, concluding his presidency in October 2022.
Diplomatic efforts
Western diplomatic efforts to ensure a president is elected before the January 26 deadline have intensified ahead of parliament's January 9 session, which will be the first attempt by the legislature to elect a president since June last year.
French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot and Defence Minister Sébastien Lecornu visited Beirut this week. There is a possibility that Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan will visit before the January 9 session and US envoy Amos Hochstein could also visit Lebanon at the beginning of next week, according to the parliamentary source.
“It is likely that President-elect Trump's special adviser, the Lebanese-born Massad Boulos, will attend the election session on January 9, in an effort to push for the election of a president in anticipation of Trump's return to the White House on January 20,” a Lebanese political source said.
Lebanese army chief Joseph Aoun is being touted as a possible candidate for the presidency. There are several other candidates, among them Samir Geagea, the leader of the Lebanese Forces (LF) which is the largest faction in the loose coalition of the opposition groups.
“The US is currently focusing on two files: the election of the president, and implementing the ceasefire,” stressed the political source.
According to Lebanese officials, there have been more than 300 Israeli violations since the agreement was signed on November 27 – including new deep incursions into different areas of southern Lebanon. Israeli media reported in recent days that the Israeli army is preparing for its withdrawal from south Lebanon before the initial truce phase expires.
"If we want to turn the truce into a permanent ceasefire, and begin focusing on rebuilding the country and its institutions, we must elect a head of state. However, if we fail to do that, chaos will follow. Everything will deteriorate, including the truce with Israel," explained the source.
