Randa Kobeissi visits Lebanon every summer, and this summer is no different, despite the danger posed by the border conflict between Hezbollah and Israel.
Last week, she travelled from the US to her native city of Nabatieh, in southern Lebanon, to see family and friends and simply enjoy the feeling of being home.
To her the danger is worth the stay – even though the conflict escalated very shortly after her arrival.
“It helps me maintain a relationship with my country, to stay connected to it, and to make sure my kids have the same connection to their homeland too,” she said.
Mrs Kobeissi is one of thousands of diaspora Lebanese visiting this summer. Like many, she makes the trek home at least once a year, “and in recent years, twice.”
Since 2019, the diaspora has experienced Lebanon's extreme economic, social and political unrest when they visit their home country.
Now, they brave an armed conflict along Lebanon’s southern border that threatens to spill into the rest of the country and the wider region.
The conflict erupted just as Lebanon’s tourism sector appeared to be settling down and making gains.
In 2023, according to figures released by the country’s central bank, tourism revenue increased from the previous year by 1.7 per cent – accounting for around 30 per cent of Lebanon’s overall gross domestic product.
Still, although tourism increased last year it is not projected to do so this year – and the gains are still far from pre-2019 economic crisis levels.
Hotels, for example, are not at capacity despite the annual summer tourism boom.
“Prices are set lower than they should be while our expenses are high,” said Sheyma Akil, the front office manager of the 4-star Plaza Hotel in Beirut’s Hamra district.
This is because many of the Lebanese diaspora own houses in their home villages or stay with family and rarely need to stay in hotels. Mrs Kobeissi stays in their multi-storey family villa when she visits.
The hotel industry has typically served Gulf Arab and western tourists.
“Restaurants and car rentals will benefit more, but not hotels,” according to the luxury InterContinental Phoenicia hotel’s marketing director, Cynthia Flouty.
Hotels are counting on the Eid Al Adha holiday to herald the summer boom, when the clientele will increase.
“During Adha and summer we mainly get leisure clientele. But the situation in Gaza has affected the whole region, so we’ve lost our European and Latin-American clientele.”
The small country's hospitality sector had been recovering before October 7, she explained, but the start of the Israel-Gaza war prompted most non-Arab tourists to cancel their plans, out of fear of regional spillover.
“Now we have mostly Kuwaiti, Qatari, Iraqi, and Jordanian clientele.”
Last August, many Gulf countries imposed travel bans on Lebanon after armed clashes in the Ain Al Hilweh camp for Palestinian refugees threatened to escalate.
Saudi Arabia has since reinforced its travel ban and the UAE still discourages travel to Lebanon following the start of the Israel-Gaza war.
Marwan Haber, head of commercial operations at the state-owned Middle East Airlines, said that “Saudi and Gulf tourism was the backbone of the tourism economy. Their absence has been felt.”
Additionally, following the outbreak of violence on the Lebanon-Israel border, MEA has had to reduce its fleet “because the insurance coverage decreased because of the war”, he said.
Between January and May, the airline’s capacity was reduced by 20 per cent, Mr Haber told The National.
MEA expects “at least 90 per cent of last year’s capacity” in July and August.
“It’s always the same in summer. The diaspora doesn’t get scared of any situation here. In line with that, we expect a hot [tourism] summer – unless the situation in the region escalates.”
Mr Haber’s sentiments are echoed by Mrs Kobeissi in Nabatieh.
“I don’t think many Lebanese will stop coming to Lebanon. This place has always been unstable and it’s never stopped us before,” she said.
However, she added that this year she didn't bring her children with her. Fearing that an escalation in fighting could lead to the airport being closed, she returned to her homeland alone.
She recalled when she and her children were on holiday in Nabatieh when the 2006 Lebanon-Israel war suddenly erupted.
“My oldest son would be playing outside in our village – where it’s safer to play because if the house got bombed I didn’t want it falling on the kids – and he would see warplanes in the sky,” she told The National.
“Back then, he was too young, it was just part of life for him. It wasn’t until years later that he realised it wasn’t normal.”
“I don’t want my kids to be traumatised by war and for that to sour their relationship with Lebanon,” said Ms Kobeissi.
“I want their relationship with Lebanon to stay beautiful.”
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Trans fat is typically found in fried and baked goods, but you may be consuming more than you think.
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”