The arrival at the Nato summit of US President Donald Trump and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is attracting much attention, with anticipated signs of tension between the two leaders dominating the run-up to the event in Turkey.
Differences over defence spending between Italy and the US are one of the thorniest issues of the Nato defence summit. Washington's concerns over Europe not spending enough on US military equipment are primed to spill into the open.
A feud between Mr Trump and Ms Meloni has been boosted by the US President posting on Truth Social a picture of her looking up at him with the caption “RESTRAINING ORDER NEEDED”. The Italian leader has yet to respond to the jibe, which stems from her public rejection of Mr Trump's claim she begged for a bilateral meeting at last month's G7 gathering.
The Ankara summit could provide the opportunity for Mr Trump to attack Italy for its relatively low defence spending – currently 2 per cent of its GDP – but also over its cancellation of US arms orders and refusal to allow US use of airbases during the Iran war.
Questions have also been raised over Rome’s decision to scale back its initial request for €15 billion ($17.1 billion) from the Security Action for Europe fund, suggesting it was not prioritising defence.
Cancellations
In April, Italy chose the European-made Airbus A330s after cancelling an earlier order for six Boeing KC-46 Pegasus air-to-air refuellers, causing some ripples in the Washington defence establishment.
This came after Mr Trump ditched a major order of 20 French-Italian frigates last year, which would have resulted in a significant sum for naval contractors. However, Ms Meloni did not make a fuss at the time, as European leaders were prioritising good relations with the White House.
While Italy kept a diplomatic silence over the frigate order, Tim Ripley, editor of the Defence Eye publication, said the Italians were “very, very annoyed”.
“It was a really big gig but Trump cancelled it largely to build the Trump battleship. The Italians didn't make a big deal of it because they didn't want to upset him but it was a big deal for Italy, getting that order and involvement in American markets.”
Airbase refusal
As a populist right-winger, Ms Meloni was seen as the “Trump whisperer” yet the relationship took a dive after the President criticised Pope Leo XIV for being “weak on crime”, which the Italian Prime Minister then called “unacceptable”.
Relations appeared to have improved at the G7 summit in Evian, France, last month, with the two pictured deep in a “very positive” conversation, only for Mr Trump to later say she had “begged” him for a photo of them together. Then came his latest message on Tuesday.
Mr Trump’s anger had been fuelled when Italy refused the US Air Force the right to use Sigonella airbase in Sicily as a refuelling or transit point for aircraft involved in Iran operations because the requests fell outside of agreed procedures.
However, the Aviano airbase in northern Italy remained available for logistical support although Rome did not approve direct combat missions.
Fighter orders
Questions are now being asked about whether Italy will cancel the full purchase of 115 Lockheed Martin F-35 fighters, with slightly more than half of the order received so far. There is a suggestion Rome might choose to save the money to fund its Global Combat Air Programme future-fighter programme, shared with Britain and Japan.
“They will probably cut short their F 35 buys because they'll need the money for GCAP and it would be after they've just ditched the Boeing tanker in favour of Airbus,” said military expert Francis Tusa. “So, like others, Italy are slightly leaving American kit in favour of European.”
Rome has committed to buying 24 new Eurofighter Typhoons but has shown no sign of abandoning the F-35 programme.
Trump's anger
At his last Nato summit before stepping down as UK Prime Minister, Keir Starmer could also face criticism from the US president for announcing the £15 billion ($20 billion) Defence Investment Programme last week, despite it allegedly having a £5 billion funding shortfall.
Mr Trump could also go after Britain’s lacklustre defence spending – which in real terms analysts say is lower than Italy’s – that has grown to only 2.6 per cent of GDP, despite the UK promising to reach the agreed total of 3 per cent.
Mr Trump has publicly lashed out at Mr Starmer as “not Churchill” over separate impediments to the US using UK bases during the conflict.
