West 'poorly equipped' for future drone wars

Think tank report finds not enough money spent on production as aerial weapons dominate Ukraine war

French weapons systems, including drones, on display for Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at Velizy-Villacoublay Airbase near Paris. AFP

The West is ill-equipped for the reality of drone warfare by not spending enough to develop hundreds of thousands of the deadly machines, a report has warned.

Nato’s current trajectory on building the weapons “leaves it poorly equipped to meet the tactical and industrial demands of high-intensity warfare” where drones will play a critical role, the Royal United Services Institute think tank report found.

Unmanned vehicles now rule the war between Russia and Ukraine, with both sides able to use them to dominate the battlefield 30km either side of the front line.

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Almost four years of war in Ukraine, where drones account for 70 per cent of Russian deaths and injuries, have seen extraordinary adaptation of the machines by both sides.

A British Army soldier operating a drone air defence system. Photo: UK Ministry of Defence

On an average day, Ukraine will use 9,000 drones in attacking and reconnaissance roles. However, Britain has only taken delivery of 6,000 first-person-view drones this year, the report said.

With China dominating the global market for raw materials for the machines, new markets needed to be found.

“The UK and its Nato partners face serious deficits in domestic drone-production capacity, leaving the alliance highly dependent on Chinese-origin components to make uncrewed aerial systems,” the report said.

While Britain had the “ambition to position itself at the forefront” of drone-making, it “lacks the industrial depth to sustain the scale of drone production which defines modern conflict”.

China supplies around 80 per cent of the global quadcopter market, including components such as flight controllers, motors and thermal sensors.

With tightening Chinese export controls and growing co-operation between Beijing and Moscow, Nato’s exposure to supply disruptions is acute, the paper stated. The UK was singled out as emblematic of the West’s slow pace in scaling up production.

Western politicians are urged to treat drone supplies as a “fundamental pillar of defence resilience, akin to munitions or fuel”, wrote the report’s author Robert Tollast.

“Unless the UK and Nato establish resilient, diversified manufacturing capacity, they risk entering future peer conflicts with a critical shortage of drones, drone components, and raw materials.”

The T650 drone is being developed to carry casualties from the battlefield in an evacuation pod. Thomas Harding / The National

The report recommended that European drone alliances should be formed to build supply-chain resilience for key components which also have high civilian demand, such as permanent magnets and germanium, vital for infrared systems.

Without stronger international co-operation across the entire supply chain, from mining to unit production, “Nato will remain strategically vulnerable”, the report concluded.

If Nato does not find “decisive industrial mobilisation” it also risks being “technologically outpaced” in future conflicts that will be dominated by drones.

The paper recommended that Nato governments should follow the lead of the US, where the Defence Department has decentralised drone procurement to army units.