Dutch vote on knife-edge as Wilders aims for repeat victory

Immigration and asylum have taken centre stage in Dutch election

People vote during the Dutch parliamentary election in The Hague, Netherlands. Reuters

The Netherlands headed to the polls on Wednesday in a close-run snap election with Geert Wilders seeking a second straight victory for his far-right Party for Freedom.

The election for all 150 seats in the lower Second Chamber of parliament is forecast to be a close race between the shock winner of the last election, Mr Wilders' populist, anti-Islam Party for Freedom (PVV), and the centre left bloc of the Labour Party and Green Left.

After the vote, parties will begin talks to form a coalition and secure a majority in parliament. With 15 parties set to be represented in the legislature, a majority may need at least four parties. The PVV leads in the polls, but most parties have ruled out joining it in government.

Polls open at 7.30am and close at 9pm local time. Broadcasters publish an exit poll as soon as voting ends and update it a half-hour later. Counting takes place through the evening and overnight.

Opinion polls indicate that the housing market, healthcare, and immigration top the list of concerns among Dutch voters. Nearly two-thirds want answers on a shortage of affordable housing, while healthcare resonates with older voters and immigration remains a key issue for right-wing supporters, according to a poll by broadcaster RTL. Issues such as the climate and defence spending have taken a back seat.

After years in opposition, Mr Wilders' victory in the last election meant his party was the largest in the outgoing four-party coalition, but he torpedoed the administration after failing to push through all of what he called Europe's toughest asylum and immigration policies.

He withdrew his party's ministers in June, triggering the fourth general election in a decade and ensuring that the administration led by Prime Minister Dick Schoof will go down in history as one of the shortest-lived Dutch governments, at just 11 months.

It could take months to form the next coalition after Wednesday's vote. The Dutch system of proportional representation ensures coalitions, and with divisions deep across the political spectrum, tough negotiations lie ahead.

A poster featuring Party for Freedom leader Geert Wilders, in The Hague. Reuters

Right wing

Polls suggest that Mr Wilders' PVV party remains on track to be the largest bloc, but other more moderate parties are closing the gap.

PVV has put an asylum moratorium and fighting “woke ideology gone mad” central to its campaign. “This is YOUR country! The Netherlands is full, overfull, bursting at the seams,” the first words of its manifesto read.

Mr Wilders has proposed saving funds by closing the borders, sending male Ukrainian refugees back to Ukraine, and halting development aid to finance energy and healthcare benefits.

However, his grip on the far-right base is loosening, with Ingrid Coenradie, a little-known politician until recently, a rising voice in Dutch politics. She has transformed her tiny JA21 party into a budding conservative force by appealing to voters tired of Wilders.

“Over the past few years, people have voted for Geert Wilders, whether out of support or protest. But now you’re seeing people drop out, disappointed,” she said this week. JA21 now has enough support to help sway coalition talks.

The party has done it by promising to push law-and-order policies without Mr Wilders’ burn-it-down tactics, which helped tank the last government. JA21 still wants deep migration cuts, for instance, but shuns Mr Wilders’ preferred ban. It’s also willing to partner with a range of groups in the splintered Dutch parliament.

Despite its claims to pragmatism, JA21’s platform is entrenched on the far right.

The party wants to expand bans on Islamic clothing and mosque prayer calls, send Syrian refugees back to “safe parts” of the country and promote “traditional Dutch culture”.

“Within the far-right side of the spectrum, very large shifts are possible,” said Matthijs Rooduijn, a University of Amsterdam professor who studies populism and right-wing politics.

“In the end, it is about the question of who is going to lead the next coalition, what kind of politics are we going to see in the coming years,” he said on national broadcaster NOS. “We have seen a lot of chaos and I think the Netherlands now hankers for something different.”

One the left, Christian Democrat leader Henri Bontenbal, who is tipped as a possible prime minister, said that the vote also is about who will be prime minister for the next four-year term.

The CDA fell to a historical low in the 2023 election, but it has managed to recover lost ground by campaigning on the promise of stable government and affordable housing under Mr Bontenbal, who took over as leader after that campaign.

The CDA is neck and neck with the recently merged Green Party and the Social Democrats (GroenLinks-PVDA) in the polls with both estimated to take home around 15 per cent of votes. GroenLinks-PVDA, fronted by ex-European Commissioner Frans Timmerman, is running on familiar centre-left policies and has made 'solidarity' its main message. It has promised more affordable housing, a cleaner environment, and a more equitable distribution of wealth.

Geert Wilders, leader of the Freedom Party, surrounded by police and supporters at a meet and greet event. Bloomberg

AI attack

On Monday, Mr Wilders apologised for AI-generated images intended to discredit Mr Timmermans. The fake images were published on a Facebook page run anonymously by two MPs from his party.

The images included a portrayal of a handcuffed Mr Timmermans being escorted by police and another of the politician taking money from a white man then giving it to people in Islamic dress.

Another showed a portrait of Mr Timmermans with the word “corrupt” written below.

“Inappropriate and unacceptable. I distance myself from this. The site has been taken down. Apologies to colleague Timmermans,” Mr Wilders posted on X.