Disappointment as Germany’s Greens leave ‘insufficient’ climate legacy

Expert council warns the richest have gained the most from environmentally friendly policies

Economy and Climate Minister Robert Habeck and Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock have held top positions for the Greens in Germany's government. EPA

During Germany's 2021 election campaign, The National watched Green party candidate Robert Habeck make the case on the stump in Hamburg for "a politics at least as radical as the extreme ecological situation".

He got the chance to make it happen when the Greens scored a record vote share and joined Germany's ruling coalition for the first time since 2005, with Mr Habeck placed in charge of an economy and climate "super-ministry". The party pledged to "put our country on a 1.5°C path", the level at which the world is trying to cap global warming.

As Germany prepares to elect a new parliament on February 23, there is disappointment on both the climate and economic fronts. A scathing two-year review by a council of climate experts released this week found that Germany's progress is "not sufficient" and warned of a "social imbalance", with richer people gaining the most from environmental action.

The war in Ukraine has pounded Germany's economy with high gas prices and forced Mr Habeck to improvise a new energy policy after years of relatively cheap imports from Russia. Coal plants were put back on standby and the phasing out of nuclear power was delayed, frustrating the Green party's agenda.

Protesters angered by Germany's lack of economic growth staged a rally at Brandenburg Gate in Berlin last month. AP

"The agenda was very different from what people expected and was very much impacted by these outside events," said Arne Jungjohann, a political scientist and former Green party aide who has researched the internal workings of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s government of Social Democrats, Greens and liberals. He said the Greens did make some progress in expanding renewable energy and electricity, and pushing for cleaner heating with a contentious law on phasing out gas boilers.

"I think they fought very hard, and if you look at the first year of the government after the Ukraine attack, basically they did a rescue operation of Germany’s energy supply in a cold winter," Mr Jungjohann told The National. "I think that’s a major achievement and the Greens deserve much more credit for that, in reality, than they get in this election campaign.

"However, the mood is somewhat different because the expectations were higher. The expectations were that there would also be success in transportation, there would be more success in renovation and with that heating law. So I would say the progressive camp in the electorate and civil society is somewhat disappointed that not more happened."

Last year, wind and solar power provided 47 per cent of Germany’s electricity, up from 31 per cent in 2021. Coal power’s share rose in 2022, when the mothballed plants were put back on standby in the face of the Russian gas crisis, but has since dropped again. There were reforms to planning rights that made it easier to put up solar panels on balconies and roofs. The heating law was watered down but still requires new boilers to use 65 per cent renewable power.

The council of experts said emissions were falling faster while climate policy efforts "increase noticeably", but said "conflicting objectives" between saving the planet and other government priorities were becoming ever more obvious. Conservatives, meanwhile, are painting Mr Habeck as the face of a stagnant planned economy that has now been in recession for two years in a row.

"Private households are particularly affected by the financial impact of various measures in the demand sectors of buildings and transport," said the council's deputy chairwoman Brigitte Knopf. "In addition, some measures have a social imbalance as, until now, primarily high-income households have received benefits."

This year's Green campaign is centred on Mr Habeck personally, putting his camera-friendly style and knack for speaking directly to voters to use. Polls suggest the Greens have regained ground during the campaign and have a chance of staying in power in what is likely to be a more conservative government under opposition leader Friedrich Merz.

Mr Merz's Christian Democrats (CDU) have promised to put an end to the "ideologically driven policies of the previous government" by "working with the people, not against them" on energy and climate policy. It says it will scrap the heating law and explore ways to turn nuclear power plants back on or develop smaller reactors.

Friedrich Merz, leader of the Christian Democratic Union, centre, with supporters at the party's convention in Berlin, Germany. Bloomberg

The CDU leadership "represent the business wing of the party, which has rather an anti-climate stand, scaling back ambitions for climate change policy," Mr Jungjohann said. "Politicians are afraid of the backlash when it comes to people paying high energy prices."

He said the nuclear phase-out and heating law were unlikely to be reversed in full, while it remains unclear how Germany will position itself in talks on an EU-wide combustion engine ban pencilled in for 2035. All parties except the Greens are expected to argue that car manufacturers should not be fined if the targets are missed.

"The German government likely can take a stand like that but it’s an open game how that will play out," Mr Jungjohann said. "I don’t think that will have much impact in the real world on how German car makers will continue their shift towards electric mobility."