Iranian military specialists are likely deploying to Russia to help launch an arsenal of Tehran’s ballistic missiles, defence analysts have said.
The arrival of an estimated 400 short-range weapons is expected imminently and will be used by Russia to intensify its bombardment of Ukraine’s infrastructure, which has killed at least 58 civilians in the last week.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy made the case to the US and other allies in Ramstein, Germany on Friday for missiles that reach far behind Russian lines, to support its fightback and incursion into the Kursk region of Russia.
“We need to have this long-range capability, not only on the divided territory of Ukraine, but also on the Russian territory, so that Russia is motivated to seek peace,” Mr Zelenskyy told the Ukraine contact group. “We need to make Russian cities and even Russian soldiers think about what they need: peace or Putin.”
"Russia's attempts to draw red lines simply do not work."
Lloyd Austin, the US defence secretary, said the US would provide an additional $250 million security assistance package for Ukraine to "surge" its capabilities while Britain said it is providing Ukraine with 650 new lightweight missiles in a package worth £162 million. The Thales-made Lightweight Multirole Missile (LMM) has a range of more than 6km.
Germany promised an additional 12 self-propelled howitzers for Ukraine, while Canada said it planned to send 80,840 surplus small unarmed air-to-surface rockets as well as 1,300 warheads in the coming months.
With Tehran’s support, Moscow will now be able to concentrate even more long-range precision missiles on Ukraine, a potentially decisive factor as it seeks to destroy the country’s energy supplies as winter approaches.
“This is very, very likely to lead to a higher civilian death count,” said Sam Cranny-Evans of the London-based Rusi think tank. “And there is a strong likelihood that they will have Iranian operators in Russia to help launch the missiles joining other IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) operatives in Crimea and Belgorod region in Russia.”
He added that it was also a “good opportunity” for Tehran to learn about the capabilities of its weapons that could be used in future Middle East conflicts. US intelligence sources have stated that a number of IRGC operatives are already in Crimea operating Shahed kamikaze drones, with some killed in action.
Deadly missile surge
In a deal that was said to have been struck in December last year, Iran will supply Russia with some of its modern short to medium-range rockets. European intelligence sources have stated that Russia signed a contract for Iran to deliver Ababil and Fath-360 short-range ballistic missiles.
Russian soldiers have been in Iran for several months training on the Fath-360, which has a range of up to 120km and carries a 150kg warhead. But Moscow might also be supplied with other models, including the Fateh-313, which has a 380kg warhead and a maximum range of 500km, and possibly the larger Qiam 1, which has a range of 800km and a 750kg warhead.
Unveiling ceremony for Iranian-made missile systems - in pictures
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Iranian Defence Minister Mohammad Reza Ashtiani delivering a speech at an unveiling ceremony for new missile systems Arman and Azarakhsh. EPA -
He was part of the unveiling event showcasing the two domestically made missile systems at an undisclosed location in Iran. EPA -
Azarakhsh is a low-altitude air defence system. EPA -
The Arman missile system 'can simultaneously confront six targets at a distance of 120km to 180km', Irna news outlet reported. AFP -
A Sayad-3 missile on show during the unveiling of the Arman defence system. AFP -
The unveiling event comes at a time of growing regional tension linked to the war in Gaza and Houthi attacks on ships in the Red Sea. AFP
“This arsenal will allow Russia to continue a relatively higher rate of strikes at various civilian and military targets across Ukraine,” said Alexander Lord, a Ukraine specialist at Sibylline, the geopolitical intelligence company.
“If the Iranians provide large numbers of them, that will provide the Russians with additional capabilities and allow them to rebuild their stockpiles to prepare future strikes.” Russia, which has fired more than 8,000 missiles at Ukraine since the 2022 invasion, is only able to build up to 130 new ones a month.
Iran on Friday claimed it was not providing weapons to Russia.
"Not only does Iran abstain from engaging in such actions itself, but it also calls upon other countries to cease the supply of weapons to the sides involved in the conflict," the Iranian mission to the UN told The National.
Pressure ramps
In addition to scores of North Korean-supplied medium-range KN-23 missiles, the Kremlin is now able to generate a significant stockpile that could well influence fighting in the coming months.
While Ukraine has made a substantial incursion into the Kursk region, seizing 1,200 square kilometres of Russian territory, it faces a major onslaught in eastern Ukraine with Moscow striving to seize the strategically important city of Pokrovsk.
A surge of Iranian missiles will allow Russia to further degrade Ukraine’s infrastructure, with an inevitable rise in civilian deaths.
“The lethality of Russian strikes is increasing now, which points to Ukrainian air defence shortages,” said Mr Lord. “If Iran does provide large numbers of these missiles it will increase the options for Russia to really start to ramp up pressure across Ukraine.”
Axis of excluded
The geopolitical impact of Iran’s arms supply will further expand the “axis of the excluded” with Russia building “an increasingly tight alliance network with various powers opposed to the West,” said Mr Lord. The increase will also pose a major challenge to Ukraine’s depleted air defence missile stockpile, although it received a boost on Thursday when Britain announced it would send 650 lightweight air defence missiles.
Farzin Nadimi, of the Washington Institute think tank, said it could prove a “gamechanger” for the Russians when the Iranian missiles arrive. “It's going to have a really bad effect on civilians,” he added.
