The UN Security Council is expected to begin discussing options for an international security presence in southern Lebanon after the planned withdrawal of peacekeepers, but diplomats say deliberations are on hold pending the outcome of US-brokered talks between Israel and Beirut.
Council members have yet to hold substantive discussions on Secretary General Antonio Guterres's proposals for a successor presence. Sources familiar with the discussions told The National they were waiting to see whether parallel negotiations between Israel and Lebanon produce a new security framework that could reduce or replace the need for a UN mission.
Daniel Forti, UN analyst at the International Crisis Group, said Security Council members were increasingly focused on what would replace the peacekeeping mission.
“Most Security Council diplomats are worried about Unifil's impending closure,” Mr Forti told The National, referring to the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon. “While some would prefer that the blue-helmet mission continues beyond 2026, they are painfully aware that the Trump administration will not reverse its August 2025 decision to terminate the operation.”
Mr Forti said diplomats are also eager to learn more about a recently announced European coalition and a separate idea for an EU-led assistance mission. He said negotiations over a replacement force were unlikely to advance until council members had a clearer picture of the US-brokered diplomacy between Israel and Lebanon.
“Agreeing on a replacement will be difficult until the council gains a clearer understanding of the ongoing diplomacy between Israel and Lebanon,” he said. “The situation is further complicated by US-Iran relations and the looming risk of both sides resuming all-out hostilities.”
Israel and Lebanon have been pursuing a separate diplomatic process mediated by the US following the latest conflict between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah.
Officials from both countries met in Rome this week for the sixth round of face-to-face negotiations since fighting resumed in March, to discuss implementing two initial “pilot zones” under a trilateral framework agreed earlier this year. In these zones, Israeli troops would pull back, Hezbollah fighters would disarm and the Lebanese military would take full control.
The framework marks a significant departure from previous arrangements. It makes no reference to UN Security Council Resolution 1701 – which outlined conditions for peace between Hezbollah and Israel along the southern Lebanese border in 2006. Instead, it envisages security verification by a mutually agreed third party before eventually establishing a bilateral Military Co-ordination Group responsible for deconfliction and implementation.
Existing monitoring mechanisms have already begun to unravel. Mr Guterres reported that the US-chaired monitoring mechanism established under the November 2024 cessation-of-hostilities agreement informed Unifil in March that its meetings had been suspended indefinitely.
Europe's alternative proposal
At the same time, European governments have begun developing alternative security arrangements.
France, Italy and the EU’s external action service in Brussels have been leading work for months on setting up a replacement mission to Unifil to be deployed after it completes its withdrawal next year. Other European countries already involved in Unifil, including Spain and Germany, have also contributed to talks.
On Friday, Germany publicly backed the idea, with Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul calling for setting up an EU-mandated force to replace Unifil.
“We should examine in the EU whether we can ensure that no security vacuum arises with a European mandate following the Unifil mission,” Mr Wadephul told the Redaktions Netzwerk Deutschland.
Mr Wadephul said Lebanon, with a stabilising government, represented “one of the most hopeful developments in the region at the moment”.
The final shape of the post-Unifil mission remains unclear but Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and French President Emmanuel Macron formally announced their intention to set up a smaller replacement at a June summit in the French city of Antibes.
“It is necessary to guarantee an international presence in order to avoid a dangerous security vacuum,” Ms Meloni said at the time.
The National understands Israel is not opposed to the idea.
Speaking on Thursday, French Foreign Ministry spokesman Pascal Confavreux said Italy and France wanted to “deploy an ad hoc international coalition, at Lebanon's invitation, to support the Lebanese army”.
“Discussions are taking place today at the UN among members of the United Nations Security Council. France is ready to mobilise alongside Lebanon, in support of the United States and its European partners,” Mr Confavreux said.
France will be organising a conference in support of the Lebanese army in the “next weeks”, he said.
The conference was initially supposed to take place in early March but was postponed because of US-Iranian hostilities and the ensuing resurgence of the conflict between Hezbollah and Israel.
The war also destroyed French hopes that the Lebanese military would deploy progressively throughout southern Lebanon, where Israel occupies large swathes of territory, as Unifil withdrew.
US-brokered Israel-Lebanon negotiations on a full withdrawal have yet to yield results.
Three UN options
Mr Guterres submitted three options to the UN Security Council in June after the council decided last year to terminate Unifil's mandate on December 31, 2026.
All three proposals would significantly reduce the current force of roughly 8,000 military personnel and more than 600 civilian staff.
The smallest option would retain about 1,980 uniformed personnel with no inter-positioning capability and only limited ability to support deployment of the Lebanese Armed Forces or verify violations of Resolution 1701.
A medium-sized option would comprise around 3,370 personnel.
The largest option would retain approximately 5,525 peacekeepers capable of monitoring the Blue Line – a 120km line of withdrawal in southern Lebanon – investigating alleged violations of Resolution 1701, supporting Lebanese army deployments and carrying out deconfliction between the parties.
Mr Guterres said the largest option “would have the capacity to most credibly observe developments along the length of the Blue Line and up to the Litani River” while preserving the mission's ability to prevent escalation.
Lebanon has urged the Security Council to preserve a robust international presence.
On July 14, Beirut circulated a letter signed by 86 members of parliament calling for Unifil not only to remain in southern Lebanon but also to strengthen its capabilities to fully implement its mandate under Resolution 1701.
Unifil has operated in southern Lebanon since 1978, when it was established after Israel's first invasion of southern Lebanon.
Following the 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah, the Security Council expanded its mandate under Resolution 1701, tasking the force with monitoring the cessation of hostilities, supporting deployment of the Lebanese army south of the Litani River, helping ensure the area remains free of unauthorised weapons and taking “all necessary action” to carry out its mandate.
