Mark Carney on Sunday won the race to become Canada’s next prime minister, putting the former central banker in charge of the country just as US President Donald Trump’s administration threatens its economic future.
The former Bank of Canada and Bank of England governor won the contest to lead the Liberal Party of Canada with 85.9 per of the vote. The transfer of power from Justin Trudeau to Mr Carney is expected to take place within days.
Mr Carney, 59, takes the reins at a time when the White House is creating upheaval in the global economy – and with US trading partners – with increasingly chaotic tariff announcements.
In three days in the past week, Mr Trump imposed 25 per cent levies on most Canadian and Mexican goods, then promised a one-month delay on those that comply with the North American trade agreement, then threatened major new tariffs against Canadian lumber and dairy.
Howard Lutnick, the US Commerce Secretary, indicated on Sunday that he expects 25 per cent tariffs on US imports of steel and aluminium to go ahead on March 12.
Canada is heavily dependent on trade with the US, and Mr Trump has expressed a desire to use “economic force” to make Canada the 51st state. His actions have sparked patriotic fury in the northern nation, with consumers boycotting American products and demanding that governments find new trading partners. Mr Trudeau has said Mr Trump’s threats against Canadian sovereignty should be taken seriously.
“We have made this the greatest country in the world and now our neighbours want to take us,” Mr Carney said in a brief speech before the results were announced on Sunday. “No way.”
Throughout the leadership race, he portrayed himself as an experienced crisis manager who led major central banks at pivotal moments: in Canada, during the global financial crisis; and in the UK, during its tumultuous exit from the EU. But he is relatively untested as a politician and does not hold a seat in Parliament.
Mr Carney has vowed to find new markets for Canada’s exports and reduce internal trade barriers. He has pledged to scrap Liberal plans to increase the capital gains tax, eliminate the consumer carbon tax and use the power of the federal balance sheet to invest in key projects.
He also said he would split the federal budget into two – an operating budget that he promises to balance and a capital spending budget that would be allowed to allocate tens of billions of dollars to investments in productivity-boosting infrastructure.
Canada must hold an election by October, but the Liberal Party’s perilous status in Parliament, where it has fewer than 50 per cent of the House of Commons seats, means it is expected sooner. Mr Carney has to decide whether to plunge the country into a springtime election – leaving it with a caretaker government for several weeks, during which a trade war may be raging – or try to gain support from at least one opposition party to govern for a period of time.
Mr Trudeau’s resignation, Mr Carney’s candidacy and Mr Trump’s threats have propelled the Liberals into a more competitive position in public opinion polls after more than a year of trailing the Conservative Party by a large margin. For weeks, the Conservatives have been running frequent attack ads against Mr Carney.
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has accused Mr Carney of being opaque about his promises and his business interests – calling on him to disclose his financial holdings to reveal any possible conflicts of interest.
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
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Classification of skills
A worker is categorised as skilled by the MOHRE based on nine levels given in the International Standard Classification of Occupations (ISCO) issued by the International Labour Organisation.
A skilled worker would be someone at a professional level (levels 1 – 5) which includes managers, professionals, technicians and associate professionals, clerical support workers, and service and sales workers.
The worker must also have an attested educational certificate higher than secondary or an equivalent certification, and earn a monthly salary of at least Dh4,000.
Labour dispute
The insured employee may still file an ILOE claim even if a labour dispute is ongoing post termination, but the insurer may suspend or reject payment, until the courts resolve the dispute, especially if the reason for termination is contested. The outcome of the labour court proceedings can directly affect eligibility.
- Abdullah Ishnaneh, Partner, BSA Law
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million