Supporters of Tunisian President Kais Saied on Tuesday celebrated the likelihood of a vote in favour of a new constitution that strengthens the powers of the head of state and risks the return of authoritarian rule in the birthplace of the 2011 Arab uprisings.
The referendum, held a year to the day after Mr Saied sacked the government and suspended parliament in what rivals called a coup, drew at least 27.5 per cent of Tunisia's 9.3 million registered voters to the ballot boxes, Tunisia's ISIE electoral commission said on Monday after polls closed.
It said 92 to 93 per cent of those who voted supported the new constitution, according to an exit poll taken by the Sigma Conseil institute. Initial results are scheduled for Tuesday afternoon.
After the projected outcome was announced on national television, supporters of Mr Saied drove cars in procession through central Tunis, waving flags and sounding their horns, with some singing the national anthem or shouting “We would sacrifice our souls and our blood for you, Saied!”
At around 0100 GMT, the president appeared in front of a jubilant crowd.
“Tunisia has entered a new phase,” he said, according to local television, adding that “there was a large crowd in the polling stations and the rate would have been higher if the vote took place over two days”.
Monday's turnout at the polls was seen as a gauge of Mr Saied's popularity after a year of increasingly tight one-man rule and scant progress in tackling Tunisia's economic woes.
The legislative elections in 2019 attracted a 32 per cent turnout.
Without naming them, the president promised “all those who have committed crimes against the country will be held accountable for their actions”.
Many voters were from the “middle classes most affected” by years of economic crisis, Sigma head Hassen Zargouni said.
Mr Saied's move against a system that emerged after the 2011 overthrow of dictator Zine El Abidine Ben Ali was welcomed by many Tunisians fed up with high inflation and unemployment, political turmoil and a system they felt had brought little improvement to their lives.
Turnout on referendum day was higher than many observers had expected, showing that Mr Saied continues to enjoy some personal popularity almost three years into his mandate.
“Tunisia will prosper from today onwards,” Imed Hezzi, a 57-year-old waiter, said after voting. “The start of the new Tunisia is today.”
Mr Saied's critics have warned the new constitution would lock in presidential powers that could tip Tunisia back into dictatorship. Many boycotted the vote.
The new text would place the president in command of the army, allow him to appoint a government without parliamentary approval and make him nearly impossible to remove from office.
He could also present draft laws to Parliament, which would be obliged to give them priority.
The new charter “gives the president almost all powers and dismantles any check on his rule and any institution that might exert any kind of control over him,” said Said Benarbia, regional director of the International Commission of Jurists.
“None of the safeguards that could protect Tunisians from Ben Ali-type violations are there anymore.”
The text “doesn't even envisage the possibility of a no vote”, he said.
The charter would replace a 2014 constitution that was a hard-won compromise between Islamist-leaning and secular forces.
Mr Saied's supporters blame the resulting parliamentary-presidential system and dominant Islamist-influenced Ennahdha party for years of crises and corruption.
The draft constitution was published this month with little reference to an earlier text produced by a committee Mr Saied had appointed.
Sadeq Belaid, a mentor of Mr Saied who led the process, said that the first draft risked creating a dictatorship.
Slight amendments did little to address such concerns.
Opposition parties and civil society groups had urged a boycott of the referendum, but the powerful UGTT trade union declined to take a position.
Mr Saied, a 64-year-old law professor, won the 2019 presidential election in a landslide, building on his image as an incorruptible political outsider.
He has appeared increasingly isolated of late, mostly limiting his public comments to recorded videos — often diatribes against domestic foes branded “snakes”, “germs” and “traitors”.
But he has vowed to protect freedoms and describes his political project as a return to the path of the revolution.
“The country's run into a brick wall. But today we turn a new page,” Labourer Ridha Nefzi, 43 said.
But Mr Saied's popularity is tempered by soaring inflation, youth unemployment of 40 per cent and the potentially tough conditions attached to an imminent bailout by the International Monetary Fund.
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She is the eldest of three brothers and two sisters
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Enjoys travelling, reading and horse riding
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
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