Lebanon’s next parliament will be ‘Lebanese Forces-Hezbollah face-off’

'People are depressed. People don't have the energy to vote any more,' says electoral expert

An electoral worker sits next to ballot boxes, at the Justice Palace, in Jdeideh. Reuters

A soldier stands guard as ballots are counted at the Justice Palace. Reuters

Jad Ghosn, an opposition candidate, gestures as people wait for the announcement of official election results, in Jdeideh. Reuters

Lebanese Interior Minister Bassam Mawlawi announces the final results for some districts. EPA

Opposition candidate Yassin Yassin gestures as he is greeted by supporters in Jeb Jennin, West Bekaa. Reuters

Supporters of the Lebanese Forces take to the streets during parliamentary elections in the Ashrafieh district of Beirut. Bloomberg

Lebanon headed to the polls with its economy in the grip of hyperinflation. Bloomberg

Lebanese youths supporting Hezbollah and Amal movement wave their party flags after parliamentary elections in a suburb of Beirut. EPA

Supporters of Lebanon's Shiite groups Hezbollah and Amal lift their flags during a motorbike rally after voting. AFP

Children swim in an inflatable pool that supporters of former prime minister Saad Hariri installed to illustrate their intention to boycott parliamentary elections in Beirut, Lebanon. AP Photo

Voters queue to place their vote in parliamentary elections in Beirut, Lebanon. EPA

Nabih Berri, Speaker of the Lebanese Parliament, stands in a polling booth to vote in Tebnin. Reuters

Voters register at a polling station in Beirut. Bloomberg

Lebanese President Michel Aoun follows the parliamentary elections on screens from the Presidential Palace in Beirut. AP

A Lebanese woman shows her inked finger after she cast her vote at a polling station in Beirut. AP

Voters look at a list of candidates at a polling station in Beirut. Bloomberg

Lebanese policemen help a voter into a polling station in Beirut. AP

A Lebanese voter casts her ballot paper in Beirut. EPA

Gyorgy Holvenyi (R), chief observer of the European Union election observation mission, visits a polling station in Beirut. EPA

Lebanese people wait to vote during parliamentary elections in the capital city. EPA

Sheikh Abdul Latif Derian, Grand Mufti of Lebanon, casts his ballot paper during parliamentary elections in Beirut. EPA

People queue to cast their votes in the Lebanese capital. AP

Posters in Al Tariq Al Jadida, Beirut, depict Lebanon’s former prime minister Saad Hariri. Reuters

A woman prepares her ballot at a polling station in a southern suburb of Beirut. AFP

Former prime minister Hassan Diab, who succeeded Saad Hariri, casts his ballot in Beirut. AFP

A voter checks lists for the parliamentary election at a polling station in the Lebanese capital Beirut. AFP

A woman waits to vote in Beirut. EPA

Security forces stand guard at Nur Square on the southern entrance of the northern Lebanese port city Tripoli. AFP

Former Lebanese prime minister Fouad Siniora casts his vote at a polling station during the parliamentary election, in Sidon, southern Lebanon. Reuters

A man check voters' lists in the capital Beirut. AP

A woman votes in Lebanon's parliamentary elections in Beirut. AP

Police check the ID of voters outside a polling station near the Lebanese coastal city of Byblos (Jbeil), north of Beirut. AFP

A voter dips her finger in ink after casting her ballot in the parliamentary election at a polling station near Byblos. AFP

A Lebanese woman shows her ink-marked thumb after voting in Shmustar, Bekaa valley. EPA

People queueing to vote at Ras El Nabeh Public School for Girls. Fatima Al Mahmoud/ The National

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Lebanon’s next parliament will probably be a face-off between Hezbollah and the Christian Lebanese Forces, electoral expert Rabih Hadad told The National as polls closed on Sunday.

He said early voter turnout information showed the highest attendance in Christian areas typically dominated by the LF and Shiite Amal and Hezbollah strongholds.

“This is a war between the Lebanese Forces and Hezbollah. In the end, we’re going to get a parliament that would be willing to go to war with each other for the sake of gaining power,” he said.

He said the turnout information supported his view that the Free Patriotic Movement — a Hezbollah ally and the largest Christian bloc in the 2018 vote — would lose seats to the LF. He said the LF appeared to get the backing of not just supporters, but non-supporters who saw them as the only viable opposition to Hezbollah.

“Many people who don't support the Lebanese Forces voted for them regardless,” he said.

Sam Heller, an analyst with the Century Foundation, also said the results would likely see the same collection of parties return to parliament.

"It seems almost impossible to imagine Lebanon voting for more of the same," he told AFP. "And yet, that appears to be the likeliest outcome."

Mr Hadad said the independent candidates may take a few seats, but they have a massive uphill battle regardless.

“Even if we manage to get five members of parliament from the [protest movement], what’s going to happen? Sure, they might be able to pass some laws but at this rate, we will need 50, 60 years to fix the country,” he said.

He also said that the opposition groups had made mistakes.

"Why would we have three [protest movement] lists in the same area? That’s what they’ve done in some areas. It makes no sense and splits the vote," he said.

There could also be issues with the earlier expatriate votes, which saw a 60 per cent turnout when they cast ballots at embassies and consulates around the world last week. Amal Hamdan told Reuters that these could face many objections, especially in districts where newcomers are taking on established parties.

"Where competition is fierce and where the electoral threshold is something opposition parties can overcome, we're going to see a lot of disputes," Ms Hamdan said.

On why, given the dire state of the country, turnout appeared to be under 40 per cent, MrHadad said the electoral law gives people no faith in the process and the entrenched parties left them feeling hopeless.

“People are depressed. People don't have the energy to vote any more. They don't feel like they can change anything,” he said.