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Iran’s militia allies expanded their reach and challenged the US with a deadly attack on American forces in Jordan at the weekend, observers said, possibly dragging the kingdom into an escalating regional conflict.
The drone attack in north-eastern Jordan, which killed three US soldiers, is the latest escalation linked to the war between Israel and Iran-backed militant group Hamas.
The war has broadened into a stand-off between Washington and Tehran and their allies across Lebanon, Iraq, Syria and Yemen.
The latest attack on Tower 22, a US base in Jordan near the border with Iraq and Syria, is the first major attack by pro-Iranian militias on the kingdom since armed groups supported by Tehran moved closer to the border four years ago, political analysts said.
Jordan is a key US ally and promotes itself as a bastion of stability in a volatile region.
Tehran has been pressuring the US via its proxies to withdraw its troops from Iraq and Syria, where almost all of the country's oilfields are situated in the American zone of control. Militia attacks on US forces in both countries have increased since the start of the Gaza War, as Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps vowed to help Hamas in its confrontation with Israel.
Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen have opened a further front with attacks on commercial ships in the Red Sea, prompting retaliatory US air strikes.
The latest attack on Jordan took place against this backdrop of tension and in a strategic area close to the Syrian border that is vital for the supply of the US exclusion zone in Syria's Tanf region.
The area has been the site of a low-level drugs war that has prompted Jordan to launch military operations against smugglers in regime-controlled areas in Syria where Iran has a strong influence.
'Strong message'
The militias ability to launch the attack shows Washington's "ineffectiveness" in protecting its troops, "let alone its allies", said Jordanian political researcher Hazem Ayyad.
The longer the war in Gaza goes on, Mr Ayyad said, the "door will open further for more escalation".
Further escalation would hamper the US and its allies' ability to "remould the security and political scene of the Middle East", a process that began with improvements in diplomatic ties between Israel and Arab countries in 2020, said the expert.
Iran had sent a "very strong message" that it is capable of expanding regional conflict and threatening Jordan, which hosts several thousand US troops who operate from dozens of bases in the kingdom.
In Beirut, a pro-Iranian source agreed with Mr Ayyad's assessment. He also said Israel's assassination of Iranian military officials in Syria over the past two months was a factor behind the escalation.
Another factor, the source said, is Tehran's desire to weaken Washington in negotiations with Baghdad over the withdrawal of US forces from Iraq.
The source cited the "intensity" of missile attacks by the Iran-backed Houthi militia in the Red Sea, and use of more advanced missiles by Hezbollah in a continuing border war of attrition with Israel, as "good examples" of Iran's goal to carefully widen the Gaza conflict across the region.
"Regional escalation has been expected and prepared for," the source said, referring to Hezbollah, which also oversees an array of local and foreign militias on behalf of Iran in Syria.
Tehran, through its UN mission, said it was not involved in the drone attack in north-eastern Jordan.
An official statement by the mission on Sunday said Iran had "nothing to do with the attack" but did not deny US accusations that militias allied to Tehran were behind it.
US President Joe Biden blamed Iran-backed groups for the unmanned aerial drone attack.
“We had a tough day last night in the Middle East," he said on Monday. "We lost three brave souls in an attack on one of our bases.
The US President said a response to the strike could be expected.
Border drug war
The border between Jordan and Syria has been scene of a drug war since 2018.
Waiel Olwan, senior fellow at the Turkey-based Jusoor Centre for Studies, said increased Jordanian anti-narcotics operations have formed "a threat to the Iranian spread in the area".
The vital support the US provides to the Jordanian military was a factor behind the Tower 22 attack, he said from Istanbul.
"It was expected," Mr Olwan said.
In 2018, a deal between the US, Israel and Russia resulted in the disintegration of western and Arab-backed rebels fighting President Bashar Al Assad in southern Syria, and the handing of the area to loyalist forces, including pro-Iranian armed groups.
The area, on the border with Jordan, has since become a main source of illicit drugs and weapon flows, prompting the kingdom to fortify its frontier defences, with US help.
But Iraqi security and political analyst Sarmad Al Bayatai said the attack on Tower 22 was solely "a message to the Americans that you are not safe in any place".
Sinan Mahmoud reporting from Baghdad. Mohamed Ali Harisi and Ismaeel Naar reporting from Abu Dhabi
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
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Sri Lanka v England
First Test, at Galle
England won by 211
Second Test, at Kandy
England won by 57 runs
Third Test, at Colombo
From Nov 23-27
Day 3, Dubai Test: At a glance
Moment of the day Lahiru Gamage, the Sri Lanka pace bowler, has had to play a lot of cricket to earn a shot at the top level. The 29-year-old debutant first played a first-class game 11 years ago. His first Test wicket was one to savour, bowling Pakistan opener Shan Masood through the gate. It set the rot in motion for Pakistan’s batting.
Stat of the day – 73 Haris Sohail took 73 balls to hit a boundary. Which is a peculiar quirk, given the aggressive intent he showed from the off. Pakistan’s batsmen were implored to attack Rangana Herath after their implosion against his left-arm spin in Abu Dhabi. Haris did his best to oblige, smacking the second ball he faced for a huge straight six.
The verdict One year ago, when Pakistan played their first day-night Test at this ground, they held a 222-run lead over West Indies on first innings. The away side still pushed their hosts relatively close on the final night. With the opposite almost exactly the case this time around, Pakistan still have to hope they can salvage a win from somewhere.
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