Disputes between Iraq’s leading Kurdish parties have delayed the selection of the country’s president nearly six months on from the general election.
Parliament will hold a session on Saturday to vote for the next president but experts are doubtful that quorum will be met for the vote to take place.
The role of president is a four-year post held by a member of Iraq's Kurdish minority. It is currently occupied by Barham Salih who was nominated by the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan party (PUK).
“Iraq will have a president, but it may be delayed, the reason why is that there has to be an agreement from all sides and right now because of that they are also deciding on who will be the prime minister,” said Renad Mansour, a senior research fellow and project director of the Iraq Initiative at London’s Chatham House think tank.
The country’s government process usually takes a long time as there is a strong competition for the presidential position, Mr Mansour told The National.
“The lesson is to understand how a government in Iraq is formed, elections are only part of that equation but competition also happens with the judiciary, and violence,” he said.
Before the election, Iraq’s political parties had formed alliances with different motives that had so far stalled the formation process.
Populist cleric Moqtada Al Sadr, who has the largest parliamentary bloc with 73 seats, formed an alliance with the Sovereignty Coalition led by parliamentary Speaker Mohammed Al Halbousi and the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP).
On the opposing side is the Co-ordination Framework, a coalition of Shiite parties, all former allies of Mr Al Sadr. They consist of the Fateh Alliance of Hadi Al Amiri, leader of the Badr Organisation, the State of Law Coalition of Nouri Al Maliki and the PUK.
“The co-ordination framework has often relied on violence to send messages [to the opposing sides]. We’ve seen violence and messages against the tripartite alliance, attacks on the KDP and Mr Halbousi,” Mr Mansour said.
All this has led to the process being delayed.
“The role of external actors, in particular Iran, in supporting the co-ordination framework has meant that the presidential vote has been delayed and is part of a bigger issue,” he said.
In early February, Parliament indefinitely postponed a scheduled presidential vote after most major political blocs boycotted the session.
“It seems that Barham Salih doesn’t have a chance but a more likely scenario is a third candidate, a relatively independent Kurdish politician,” Sajad Jiyad, an analyst at the Century Foundation told The National.
The PUK has nominated Mr Salih to run for office once again but the KDP is keen on Rebar Ahmed, the Kurdistan’s Regional Government’s (KRG) interior minister.
“The issue has been that the PUK has not been willing to accept the KDP’s nomination. Even if all the other parties agree on who will be the prime minister and other cabinet positions, they cannot choose the president, it has to be between the Kuridsh parties,” Mr Jiyad said.
If the two Kurdish parties cannot come to an agreement on a candidate, then Saturday's vote will be postponed, he said.
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
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Iron: Useful only when deficiency or anaemia is confirmed; helps reduce fatigue and support immunity.
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