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Syrian retiree Elham Ali was making midmorning coffee last month when a huge explosion shook her apartment in the upmarket Mazzeh district in Damascus.
“It was so close that I thought it was in my building,” Ms Ali said by phone.
From her balcony, she saw the rubble of a nearby building destroyed by what turned out to be an Israeli air strike.
It was one of many buildings in the area “taken over by Iranians” who have paid a premium to rent or buy in the area over the last decade, she said.
The January 20 strike killed five operatives in Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Iranian official media said. Among them was the head of Iranian intelligence in Syria and his deputy.
The IRGC presence in Mazzeh indicates how much more powerful, and wealthy, the organisation in Syria has become since Iran intervened on the side of President Bashar Al Assad in Syria’s civil war, in the years following the 2011 uprising.
Back then, the IRGC and militias under its control formed in Lebanon, Iraq and elsewhere were mainly stationed in rundown southern parts of the capital, such as Sayyida Zaynab, where a Shiite shrine is situated.
Over time, the IRGC and other Iran-backed militias have expanded into other parts of Damascus and Syria.
“Sayyida Zaynab became no longer good enough for them,” said Ms Ali. “They had to come here and endanger the whole district.”
Impact of Gaza war
The prolonged IRGC presence in Syria, where some high-level Iranian commanders are based, underscores the enduring nature of Iran’s influence over the region throughout the decades.
Formed 45 years ago, the force was initially intended as an internal security organisation, supporting the new theocracy and stopping counter-revolutionaries.
It has since grown to a force of hundreds of thousands, a parallel army more powerful than conventional state forces, the Artesh.
With a business empire – almost entirely sanctioned by the US and Europe – the force has gained notoriety for spreading Iran's brand of Shiite Islam through allied militias across the Middle East.
In particular, Hamas’s attack on southern Israel on October 7 has set off a broader regional conflict that has demonstrated the extent of the IRGC's power.
In the last four months, this has translated into attrition warfare by IRGC-linked groups against Israeli and US targets in the Levant.
In an attempt to alleviate pressure on Hamas, Yemen’s Tehran-aligned Houthis have also launched a shipping blockade in the Red Sea. In Iraq, militant groups have stepped up attacks on US military installations in the country. And in Lebanon, the powerful Hezbollah group has waged an intensifying border conflict against Israel.
Ideology and alliances
Since 1979, when a revolution brought the Islamic Republic of Iran to existence, Tehran has aimed to export its brand of theocracy by investing in close alliances with Shiite constituents in nearby countries.
It has also forged alliances with Sunni militant groups, such as Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad in the occupied Palestinian territories.
Over the last 45 years, Iran has consolidated a zone of influence stretching through Yemen, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon to the Mediterranean – presenting itself as a counterweight to the mostly Sunni, Western backed political order in the Middle East.
At the same time, Tehran has tried to portray its struggle against the West and hatred of Israel as Pan-Islamic, as opposed to a narrow policy espoused by a Shiite elite in Tehran.
The attempted portrayal of a Pan-Islamic revolution continued despite growing sectarian division in Iraq, that spiked in the aftermath of the US invasion as Tehran backed a number of hardline Shiite militias.
Those divisions have been at a low ebb in recent years as sectarian tensions in Iraq have fallen in the wake of the war on ISIS, and regional countries have doubled down on rapprochement efforts.
But Iran's regional projects, decades in the making, remain deep-rooted.
Early regional efforts
In Lebanon, in the early 1980s, a contingent of 1,500 Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) were sent to Lebanon to train and organise Shiite militants.
Those groups eventually consolidated into Hezbollah, the powerful Lebanese political party and paramilitary that dominates Lebanon’s politics.
Iran forged early links with Syrian President Hafez Al Assad, who came to power in a 1970 coup, through setting up charities and schools linked to the new Alawite elite in the country. The minority Alawite sect in Syria is an offshoot of Shiism that has dominated Syria since the 1960s.
In Iraq, the IRGC became de facto supervisor in the last decade the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF), an umbrella grouping of mostly Shiite paramilitary groups.
The emergence of Shiite militias in the aftermath of the 2003 US-led invasion – which led to the fall of Saddam Hussein’s regime – was a response to the security void, aligning with Iran's interests.
Their transformation into a significant force gained momentum during the ISIS onslaught in 2014, when the extremists overran large areas of Iraq.
Over time, Iran’s proxies and allies came to be referred to as the ‘Axis of Resistance’ – a coalition of militant groups throughout the region defined by their antagonism to the West and Israel.
Riad Kahwaji, head of the Institute for Near East and Gulf Military Analysis, said that this approach “has created a large front from Afghanistan to North Africa that is undermining the interests of the US and its allies in the region, as well as those of many Arab countries”.
The pro-Iran coalition, long in the making, has especially come to be felt in the wake of Hamas’s October 7 attack on Israel. Israel vowed to eradicate the group, a longtime Iranian ally, in response to the attack.
Iran and its axis immediately jumped to Hamas’s aid while the US came to the defence of Israel, setting off a series of events and retaliations that have sucked the region into turbulence.
Appeal of revolution
Sheikh Maher Hammoud, now a prominent Lebanese Sunni cleric, was 26 years old on the eve of Iran’s revolution in 1979.
A devout Muslim and political activist at the time, he said the emergence of the revolution on the region’s geopolitical scene filled a void for those who were unsatisfied with apolitical Islamist movements and ineffective leftist ideologies that dominated the period.
“The Islamic movements at the time didn’t have a political vision. We felt there was a shortcoming in these movements,” he told The National. In Lebanon, he said that the Iranian revolution “covered that deficiency.”
The Iranian revolution came about at a key time in Lebanon’s history, four years into a 15-year civil war that saw the small country used as an arena by foreign powers.
At the time, Lebanon’s political and sectarian spheres were also heavily shaped – and split – by the entrenchment of Palestinian fighters in Lebanon. The Palestinians, along with Lebanese allies, used Lebanon as a launch pad against Israel from the late 1960s to the early 1980s.
Lebanon and Hezbollah comprise the external “crown jewel for the Islamic Revolution”, said Mr Kahwaji.
“Hezbollah is the model upon which the IRGC tried to replicate in the region,” he said.
Hezbollah has also acted as Iran’s proxy in neighbouring Syria. Its strength has allowed Iran to leverage its power in the Middle East by creating a corridor through Iraq and Syria and into Lebanon.
“Hezbollah is seen as a subject for Iran, however, it also yields a lot of influence,” Mr Kahwaji said.
Fragile states
The group’s victory in forcing Israel’s withdrawal from south Lebanon in 2000 helped Hezbollah attract Palestinian factions, leftist groups, and Lebanese offshoots of the Muslim Brotherhood as allies.
Sheikh Hammoud, now 71, said Hezbollah has turned Lebanon into a regional resistance “hub”.
Although he is a Sunni cleric he said the Iranian revolution’s ideology appealed to him because it “had clear and unambiguous political slogans” – namely defining itself as a transnational Islamic movement with a clear objective to defeat Israel and the US.
Hezbollah’s presence has exacerbated Lebanon’s eternal struggle for full sovereignty: a weak state caught in the struggle between Western and Eastern influence.
“Hezbollah, not the Lebanese state, controls the decision for war and peace in Lebanon,” Mr Kahwhaji said.
Nada Homsi reported from Beirut and Sinan Mahmoud reported form Baghdad.
UK’s AI plan
- AI ambassadors such as MIT economist Simon Johnson, Monzo cofounder Tom Blomfield and Google DeepMind’s Raia Hadsell
- £10bn AI growth zone in South Wales to create 5,000 jobs
- £100m of government support for startups building AI hardware products
- £250m to train new AI models
It Was Just an Accident
Director: Jafar Panahi
Stars: Vahid Mobasseri, Mariam Afshari, Ebrahim Azizi, Hadis Pakbaten, Majid Panahi, Mohamad Ali Elyasmehr
Rating: 4/5
Zimbabwe v UAE, ODI series
All matches at the Harare Sports Club:
1st ODI, Wednesday, April 10
2nd ODI, Friday, April 12
3rd ODI, Sunday, April 14
4th ODI, Tuesday, April 16
UAE squad: Mohammed Naveed (captain), Rohan Mustafa, Ashfaq Ahmed, Shaiman Anwar, Mohammed Usman, CP Rizwan, Chirag Suri, Mohammed Boota, Ghulam Shabber, Sultan Ahmed, Imran Haider, Amir Hayat, Zahoor Khan, Qadeer Ahmed
ULTRA PROCESSED FOODS
- Carbonated drinks, sweet or savoury packaged snacks, confectionery, mass-produced packaged breads and buns
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Mobile phone packages comparison
The specs
Engine: 5.2-litre V10
Power: 640hp at 8,000rpm
Torque: 565Nm at 6,500rpm
Transmission: 7-speed dual-clutch auto
Price: From Dh1 million
On sale: Q3 or Q4 2022
Story of 2017-18 so far and schedule to come
Roll of Honour
Who has won what so far in the West Asia rugby season?
Western Clubs Champions League
Winners: Abu Dhabi Harlequins
Runners up: Bahrain
Dubai Rugby Sevens
Winners: Dubai Exiles
Runners up: Jebel Ali Dragons
West Asia Premiership
Winners: Jebel Ali Dragons
Runners up: Abu Dhabi Harlequins
UAE Premiership Cup
Winners: Abu Dhabi Harlequins
Runners up: Dubai Exiles
Fixtures
Friday
West Asia Cup final
5pm, Bahrain (6pm UAE time), Bahrain v Dubai Exiles
West Asia Trophy final
3pm, The Sevens, Dubai Hurricanes v Dubai Sports City Eagles
Friday, April 13
UAE Premiership final
5pm, Al Ain, Dubai Exiles v Abu Dhabi Harlequins
Company Profile
Name: Thndr
Started: 2019
Co-founders: Ahmad Hammouda and Seif Amr
Sector: FinTech
Headquarters: Egypt
UAE base: Hub71, Abu Dhabi
Current number of staff: More than 150
Funds raised: $22 million
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Profile
Company name: Jaib
Started: January 2018
Co-founders: Fouad Jeryes and Sinan Taifour
Based: Jordan
Sector: FinTech
Total transactions: over $800,000 since January, 2018
Investors in Jaib's mother company Alpha Apps: Aramex and 500 Startups
McLaren GT specs
Engine: 4-litre twin-turbo V8
Transmission: seven-speed
Power: 620bhp
Torque: 630Nm
Price: Dh875,000
On sale: now
Company%20profile
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Indoor cricket in a nutshell
Indoor Cricket World Cup – Sep 16-20, Insportz, Dubai
16 Indoor cricket matches are 16 overs per side
8 There are eight players per team
9 There have been nine Indoor Cricket World Cups for men. Australia have won every one.
5 Five runs are deducted from the score when a wickets falls
4 Batsmen bat in pairs, facing four overs per partnership
Scoring In indoor cricket, runs are scored by way of both physical and bonus runs. Physical runs are scored by both batsmen completing a run from one crease to the other. Bonus runs are scored when the ball hits a net in different zones, but only when at least one physical run is score.
Zones
A Front net, behind the striker and wicketkeeper: 0 runs
B Side nets, between the striker and halfway down the pitch: 1 run
C Side nets between halfway and the bowlers end: 2 runs
D Back net: 4 runs on the bounce, 6 runs on the full
Know your cyber adversaries
Cryptojacking: Compromises a device or network to mine cryptocurrencies without an organisation's knowledge.
Distributed denial-of-service: Floods systems, servers or networks with information, effectively blocking them.
Man-in-the-middle attack: Intercepts two-way communication to obtain information, spy on participants or alter the outcome.
Malware: Installs itself in a network when a user clicks on a compromised link or email attachment.
Phishing: Aims to secure personal information, such as passwords and credit card numbers.
Ransomware: Encrypts user data, denying access and demands a payment to decrypt it.
Spyware: Collects information without the user's knowledge, which is then passed on to bad actors.
Trojans: Create a backdoor into systems, which becomes a point of entry for an attack.
Viruses: Infect applications in a system and replicate themselves as they go, just like their biological counterparts.
Worms: Send copies of themselves to other users or contacts. They don't attack the system, but they overload it.
Zero-day exploit: Exploits a vulnerability in software before a fix is found.
The bio:
Favourite holiday destination: I really enjoyed Sri Lanka and Vietnam but my dream destination is the Maldives.
Favourite food: My mum’s Chinese cooking.
Favourite film: Robocop, followed by The Terminator.
Hobbies: Off-roading, scuba diving, playing squash and going to the gym.
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