US president Bill Clinton stands between PLO leader Yasser Arafat and Israeli prime minister Yitzhak Rabin as they shake hands for the first time, on September 13, 1993. AFP
US president Bill Clinton stands between PLO leader Yasser Arafat and Israeli prime minister Yitzhak Rabin as they shake hands for the first time, on September 13, 1993. AFP
US president Bill Clinton stands between PLO leader Yasser Arafat and Israeli prime minister Yitzhak Rabin as they shake hands for the first time, on September 13, 1993. AFP
US president Bill Clinton stands between PLO leader Yasser Arafat and Israeli prime minister Yitzhak Rabin as they shake hands for the first time, on September 13, 1993. AFP

'Miracle' of Oslo Accords, from those who saw the rise and fall


Thomas Helm
  • English
  • Arabic

As they cast their minds back exactly three decades, Ghassan Khatib, Yossi Beilin and Clyde Haberman all remember the surge of optimism the day the Oslo Accords were signed.

The three men had different roles and responsibilities in what was then the Middle East peace process. But all had vantage points that made them very well positioned to judge.

Peace between Palestine and Israel had come tantalisingly into view.

It was 1993 and Palestine Liberation Organisation chairman Yasser Arafat and Israeli prime minister Yitzhak Rabin shook hands in the garden of the White House with US president Bill Clinton beaming on.

It was the truest gesture of compromise between Palestinian and Israeli leaders since the establishment of Israel in 1948.

Diplomacy was ascendant. The Cold War had just ended.

The Palestinian cause had been driven internationally at the outbreak of the First Intifada in 1987 and a victorious US seized its newfound influence at the end of the First Gulf War in 1991 to make peace between Palestinians and Israelis.

Mr Haberman was one of the first journalists to break the news of the Oslo Accords.

Mr Beilin was a crucial architect of the agreement on the Israeli side and a former minister, and Mr Khatib was a member of the Palestinian negotiating team and a veteran of the earlier 1991 Madrid Conference.

Despite their different roles, they were all optimistic that peace was the closest it had ever been.

Now, 30 years after the Oslo Accords, they are alike in their despair.

Israel has the most right-wing government in its history, with ministers who advocate annexation of Palestinian territory.

Many young Palestinians, who have never known a working peace process, choose militancy over dialogue.

“It is far from being a celebration,” Mr Beilin says of Wednesday’s anniversary.

“The Oslo agreement was meant to be a corridor towards a target that has never been achieved. In that sense, the anniversary is a tragedy.”

The White House South Lawn on September 13, 1993, where a crowd of 3,000 guests gathered for the signing of the historic Oslo Accords. AFP
The White House South Lawn on September 13, 1993, where a crowd of 3,000 guests gathered for the signing of the historic Oslo Accords. AFP

Mr Khatib agrees: “I think the feeling on the anniversary is one of disappointment.

“Thirty years back, most people were optimistic. In a Palestinian opinion poll I was involved in at the time, we found that three weeks after signing the Oslo Accords, two thirds of Palestinians were optimistic and supportive of the agreement.

“But things steadily changed, and now we’ve reached a point when the situation is even worse than it was before Oslo."

Mr Haberman is no longer in the region that gave him his remarkable story. He left Jerusalem for good after a short return journey of a few months in 2001. But the anniversary still weighs heavily.

“I never doubted for a second that the negotiations would be difficult, but I thought that each side had finally made the cosmic breakthrough of recognising the other’s existence and that neither was going away,” he says.

The source for his story was remarkable.

“As far as I recall, I first got wind that something was happening in Oslo from a money exchanger in East Jerusalem called Nabil Feidi," Mr Haberman says.

"A lot of journalists patronised his shop because of his good rates. He always knew a lot and had his ear to the ground.

Then Palestine Liberation Organisation chairman Yasser Arafat, flanked by Israeli prime minister Yitzhak Rabin and US president Bill Clinton. AFP
Then Palestine Liberation Organisation chairman Yasser Arafat, flanked by Israeli prime minister Yitzhak Rabin and US president Bill Clinton. AFP

“I’d been on leave and just got back to Jerusalem. I went to visit him and he said that something had been going on.

"It all sounded really intriguing, so I started to poke around. Sure enough, some details began to emerge about the agreement.

“We didn’t have many details – those would come out later – but there was a great sense of hopefulness about it all. That was soon smashed.”

Mr Haberman left Jerusalem in 1995. When he returned, the change in atmosphere was stark

“By the time I went back to Jerusalem in 2001, during the Second Intifada, hope had disappeared," he says.

"It was clear everything had broken down into an endless cycle of terror attacks and Israeli crackdowns on Palestinian areas. I haven’t seen any movement in recent years. I think that the whole process is dead.”

All three blame extremism for the decline and extinction of the Oslo Accords.

Mr Khatib’s assessment is blunt: “Who should we blame? I always place the blame for this change within Israel.

"The Israel we negotiated with 30 years ago is not the Israel that you see now.”

A West Bank Jewish settlement near the Palestinian city of Ramallah. AFP
A West Bank Jewish settlement near the Palestinian city of Ramallah. AFP

When asked how things will look at the 40th anniversary, Mr Khatib predicts an even bleaker outlook.

“It will be worse, because Israel is the driving force in this formula," he says. "It is the most powerful side.

"Something very significant is happening in Israeli society. Changing demographics and political thinking make peace less likely. In the immediate future, there is no hope."

For Mr Beilin, the most extreme ends of politics on both sides are to blame.

“Oslo finally marked a recognition between the two national movements after so many years," he says. "The extremists on both sides succeeded in thwarting it.”

But so did flawed tactics. “Rather than use Oslo to have a permanent agreement, we used it to have an interim one," Mr Beilin says.

"This, I believe, was our biggest mistake. The interim agreement became a permanent agreement, and a lousy one at that.”

Opinions start to differ on how to find peace from here. Mr Beilin believes a new framework is the way.

“My own idea is to establish a confederation of the two states, which are totally sovereign and independent, but that have a close relationship," he says.

"The Israeli settlers who live in the West Bank would be allowed to remain Israeli citizens and become Palestinian residents, and the same number of Palestinian citizens who would like to live in Israel would be allowed to do that.”

That could happen with a new Israeli government, he believes, pointing to opinion polls that say today’s opposition would enjoy a landslide at the next election.

Changing geopolitics in the Middle East could also spur progress. Speaking of any normalisation with Saudi Arabia, Mr Beilin notes an important change in attitude in today’s Palestinian Authority, as reports mount that the Arab kingdom is considering proper relations with Israel.

“Decades ago, the Palestinian Authority would have the wrong response to suggestions that certain Arab states would normalise relations with Israel," he says. "They did not put constructive negotiating points forward.

“Today we see the Palestinians at least acknowledging that Saudi Arabia might normalise ties. In turn, the Palestinians are taking the initiative to tell Saudi Arabia what concessions to ask of Israel on their behalf.

“Saudi Arabia could insist on things that are conducive to a renewal of peace talks. It won’t be easy – with today’s government in Israel, God forbid.

"But there could be progress with next government, which may come tomorrow or three years from now.”

Fundamentally, Mr Beilin believes finding peace is grounded in interests that have never changed.

“Peace would give Palestinians self-determination and Israel the chance to have a Jewish majority in a democratic state," he says.

"These interests will not die. The only question is how can we fulfil them in a new reality.”

Mr Khatib thinks that Israel’s dysfunctional and increasingly radical politics could inadvertently encourage peace.

Israeli troops run as clashes erupt outside Al Aqsa Mosque compound in Jerusalem's Old City during the Second Intifada. AFP
Israeli troops run as clashes erupt outside Al Aqsa Mosque compound in Jerusalem's Old City during the Second Intifada. AFP

“I felt at the time of Oslo genuine willingness to compromise among the majority of Palestinians and Israelis," he says.

"I remember that feeling suddenly changing when Jewish terrorists assassinated Prime Minister Rabin.

“Since then we witnessed a gradual change in Israeli public opinion. Successive governments have been more and more right-wing and unwilling to compromise, barring some fluctuations.

“I do think, however, that Israel is committing mistakes that will reflect negatively on it in the long term, which might bring new dynamics that we cannot identify now.

"They could encourage it to return to negotiations.”

Mr Haberman can only hope for a miracle: “I wish I could be optimistic but I see absolutely no reason.

"And yet, the miracle of Oslo was that everything seemed impossible just before it happened.”

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What is an FTO Designation?

FTO designations impose immigration restrictions on members of the organisation simply by virtue of their membership and triggers a criminal prohibition on knowingly providing material support or resources to the designated organisation as well as asset freezes. 

It is a crime for a person in the United States or subject to the jurisdiction of the United States to knowingly provide “material support or resources” to or receive military-type training from or on behalf of a designated FTO.

Representatives and members of a designated FTO, if they are aliens, are inadmissible to and, in certain circumstances removable from, the United States.

Except as authorised by the Secretary of the Treasury, any US financial institution that becomes aware that it has possession of or control over funds in which an FTO or its agent has an interest must retain possession of or control over the funds and report the funds to the Treasury Department.

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180 Petrofac employees laid off in the UAE

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The flights 

Etihad and Emirates fly direct to Kolkata from Dh1,504 and Dh1,450 return including taxes, respectively. The flight takes four hours 30 minutes outbound and 5 hours 30 minute returning. 

The trains

Numerous trains link Kolkata and Murshidabad but the daily early morning Hazarduari Express (3’ 52”) is the fastest and most convenient; this service also stops in Plassey. The return train departs Murshidabad late afternoon. Though just about feasible as a day trip, staying overnight is recommended.

The hotels

Mursidabad’s hotels are less than modest but Berhampore, 11km south, offers more accommodation and facilities (and the Hazarduari Express also pauses here). Try Hotel The Fame, with an array of rooms from doubles at Rs1,596/Dh90 to a ‘grand presidential suite’ at Rs7,854/Dh443.

Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

Updated: September 12, 2023, 11:08 PM