Reconciliation talks between rival Palestinian factions have failed to achieve any political progress, analysts say, despite mounting pressure to present a united front against Israeli aggression in the West Bank.
President Mahmoud Abbas, of the Fatah party, sat down with rival political groups, most notably Gaza-based Hamas, for talks in Cairo on Sunday that were billed by some as a chance to heal years-long rifts between Palestinian organisations.
Mr Abbas described the rift between Hamas and Fatah as today’s “nakba”, the Arabic word for catastrophe that also refers to the mass displacement of Palestinians during the establishment of the state of Israel in 1948.
His assessment followed many previous failed attempts to patch over differences since the parties split in 2007.
By Sunday evening, Mr Abbas had announced only a vague intention to form a “follow-up committee”, seen as a sign that the day's talks had achieved little.
“The formation of a committee is not a good sign,” Ghassan Khatib, a former Palestinian minister, told The National. “Had there been any achievements, they would have been announced by now.”
The reconciliation effort comes as Israel’s right-wing government pushes ahead with one of the country’s most heavy-handed agendas regarding the Palestinian territories in years, particularly in the occupied West Bank.
It includes ramped up settlement activity, near daily military raids and a large-scale security operation in the northern Palestinian city of Jenin at the beginning of July.
Despite these mounting challenges, divisions among Palestinian political organisations remain stark, especially between Mr Abbas’s Palestinian Authority and Hamas.
Palestinian Islamic Jihad, the militant organisation responsible for spates of rocket fire into Israeli territory this year, boycotted the talks.
Hugh Lovatt of the European Council on Foreign Relations said the divisions had hardened since Mr Abbas cancelled national elections in 2021.
“His Palestinian Authority is now stepping up its detention campaign against members of Hamas and Islamic Jihad as they expand their military confrontation against Israel in the West Bank,” Mr Lovatt said.
“Against this backdrop, Palestinian reconciliation remains a distant prospect.”
At the meeting, Mr Abbas’s main rival, Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, called on Palestinians to exploit “unprecedented internal divisions” in Israel.
Israel is currently witnessing the largest protest movement in its history as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu seeks to pass a deeply controversial judicial overhaul.
Mr Haniyeh said this “window of opportunity” required Palestinians to “think collectively and take exceptional decisions”.
But Mr Khatib said a collective approach was unlikely, given Hamas’s significant demands if it is to join a unity government.
He said Hamas's insistence that it join the Palestine Liberation Organisation, led by Mr Abbas, is particularly difficult for mainstream Palestinian politicians to stomach.
There are fears that if Hamas, which is designated a terror organisation by a number of western countries, does join, it would undermine the PLO's decades-long recognition by the international community as the sole legitimate representative of the Palestinian people.
“Hamas does not feel obliged to make concessions in talks,” Mr Khatib said. “They are in comfortable control of Gaza and have huge popularity in the West Bank because of their image as the true resistance.
“While Fatah, subject to Israeli pressure, sees its popularity diminishing rapidly. They are the ones that need partnership.”
The lack of progress comes despite high-level stewardship of the reconciliation effort from Egypt, which convened the meeting.
Following Sunday’s talks, Mr Abbas met Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El Sisi on Monday in the coastal city of New Alamein where he thanked him for Egypt’s hosting of the factions’ meeting, Palestinian news agency Wafa reported.
During his time in Egypt, Mr Abbas also said he intends to hold elections if Palestinians in Israeli-annexed East Jerusalem are able to participate.
There have been no Palestinian presidential or parliamentary elections since 2006, a key reason why many view the PA as corrupt.
There are fears within the organisation that votes would be lost to Hamas, which is viewed by many Palestinians as a stronger opponent to Israel.
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”