• Not all commuters on the Underground in London choose to wear masks. UK government ministers are under pressure to implement 'Plan B' winter measures to address rising Covid-19 case numbers and a faltering booster vaccine programme. AFP
    Not all commuters on the Underground in London choose to wear masks. UK government ministers are under pressure to implement 'Plan B' winter measures to address rising Covid-19 case numbers and a faltering booster vaccine programme. AFP
  • Health workers at a Covid-19 PCR test centre in London. Britain's daily coronavirus case numbers and the seven-day rolling average reached their highest level in three months in October. EPA
    Health workers at a Covid-19 PCR test centre in London. Britain's daily coronavirus case numbers and the seven-day rolling average reached their highest level in three months in October. EPA
  • A man receives a Covid-19 vaccine at Regent Pharmacy in Northampton. There are concerns over a sluggish booster shot programme for over-50s and low uptake of vaccines among 12 to 15-year-olds. Reuters
    A man receives a Covid-19 vaccine at Regent Pharmacy in Northampton. There are concerns over a sluggish booster shot programme for over-50s and low uptake of vaccines among 12 to 15-year-olds. Reuters
  • Britain's Health Secretary Sajid Javid with UK Health Security Agency chief executive, Dr Jenny Harries, during a press conference at Downing Street. Getty Images
    Britain's Health Secretary Sajid Javid with UK Health Security Agency chief executive, Dr Jenny Harries, during a press conference at Downing Street. Getty Images
  • The National Covid Memorial Wall in London. Under UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s winter plan announced in September, Plan B would include a return to working from home for many, mandatory mask-wearing in some settings and vaccine certificates required at large indoor gatherings. Reuters
    The National Covid Memorial Wall in London. Under UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s winter plan announced in September, Plan B would include a return to working from home for many, mandatory mask-wearing in some settings and vaccine certificates required at large indoor gatherings. Reuters
  • A demonstration in Parliament Square, London, against Covid-19 vaccine passports and British government restrictions to curb the spread of coronavirus. AP Photo
    A demonstration in Parliament Square, London, against Covid-19 vaccine passports and British government restrictions to curb the spread of coronavirus. AP Photo
  • Passengers on a London Underground train on the Jubilee Line, where face coverings are required to be worn. AP Photo
    Passengers on a London Underground train on the Jubilee Line, where face coverings are required to be worn. AP Photo
  • Bus passengers in London. Masks are not mandatory in indoor settings such as shops, restaurants and bars in England. AP Photo
    Bus passengers in London. Masks are not mandatory in indoor settings such as shops, restaurants and bars in England. AP Photo
  • A section of the National Covid Memorial Wall – a dedication of thousands of hand-painted hearts and messages commemorating victims of the Covid-19 pandemic. Reuters
    A section of the National Covid Memorial Wall – a dedication of thousands of hand-painted hearts and messages commemorating victims of the Covid-19 pandemic. Reuters
  • An NHS Covid-19 vaccination campaign advertisement near a housing block in London. Reuters
    An NHS Covid-19 vaccination campaign advertisement near a housing block in London. Reuters

Why are UK Covid-19 cases falling when Europe's are surging?


Daniel Bardsley
  • English
  • Arabic

As coronavirus case rates in much of continental Europe are rising, the UK has been recording a fall in the number of positive tests.

Although the decrease took some by surprise, modellers forecast that instead of soaring as winter approached, case numbers in the UK could decline.

The situation remains finely balanced, however, with some suggestions that numbers may be creeping up again.

UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson said this week he could not rule out a Christmas lockdown if infection rates did continue to climb.

Nonetheless, the recent figures have given cause for optimism only weeks after the English Health Secretary, Sajid Javid, gave a warning that positive tests could more than double to 100,000 a day.

I think it’s the beginning of the end of the pandemic
Prof Ian Jones

But why does the UK appear to be bucking the upwards trend of many of its neighbours?

The National explains.

What has been happening to UK case numbers?

By mid-to-late October, the UK had seen five successive weeks of increases in the number of positive Covid-19 cases. This fuelled concerns that the country was going to experience a tough winter in which hospitals would be put under extreme pressure, especially given the risk that influenza cases could spiral, too.

In the week beginning on October 18, there were 330,465 confirmed cases, the country's highest figure since January and third-highest since the start of the pandemic.

However, the trend since has been for case numbers to fall by more than 10 per cent each week, although in the last seven days case numbers have crept back up by six per cent to 262,419.

Trends in deaths tend to follow several weeks behind cases. In the latest seven-day period there were 1,093 deaths, 6.9 per cent down on the previous seven-day period.

Hospital admissions have fallen too.

Has the recent fall in cases come as a surprise?

  • Pedestrians pass the National Covid-19 Memorial Wall, opposite the Palace of Westminster, in London. EPA
    Pedestrians pass the National Covid-19 Memorial Wall, opposite the Palace of Westminster, in London. EPA
  • Lauren McLean, 15, receives a Covid-19 vaccine at the Excelsior Academy in Newcastle upon Tyne, in north-east England, as the country begins vaccinating children aged 12 to 15. Getty Images
    Lauren McLean, 15, receives a Covid-19 vaccine at the Excelsior Academy in Newcastle upon Tyne, in north-east England, as the country begins vaccinating children aged 12 to 15. Getty Images
  • Campaigners carry fake coffins in London to highlight the number of Covid-19 deaths globally. AP
    Campaigners carry fake coffins in London to highlight the number of Covid-19 deaths globally. AP
  • Most passengers on an underground train on London's Bakerloo Line wear masks as a precaution against Covid-19. AP
    Most passengers on an underground train on London's Bakerloo Line wear masks as a precaution against Covid-19. AP
  • A man wears a face mask as he walks in Piccadilly Circus, in London. The UK has the highest rate of infections in Europe, with new cases averaging 43,000 a day over the past week. AP Photo
    A man wears a face mask as he walks in Piccadilly Circus, in London. The UK has the highest rate of infections in Europe, with new cases averaging 43,000 a day over the past week. AP Photo
  • Commuters wait for an underground train to leave from a tube stop in central London. Data up to Sunday showed more than 300,000 confirmed cases reported over the last seven days, a 15 percent increase in cases on the previous week. AFP
    Commuters wait for an underground train to leave from a tube stop in central London. Data up to Sunday showed more than 300,000 confirmed cases reported over the last seven days, a 15 percent increase in cases on the previous week. AFP
  • Commuters, some wearing face coverings, walk through Waterloo train station in central London.
    Commuters, some wearing face coverings, walk through Waterloo train station in central London.
  • Chelsea fans show vaccine-related paperwork to a Covid-19 steward before entering the club's Stamford Bridge stadium in west London. Reuters
    Chelsea fans show vaccine-related paperwork to a Covid-19 steward before entering the club's Stamford Bridge stadium in west London. Reuters
  • People attend a candlelit procession and vigil in the northern city Manchester to remember all those who have died due to the pandemic. Getty Images
    People attend a candlelit procession and vigil in the northern city Manchester to remember all those who have died due to the pandemic. Getty Images
  • Chelsea Pensioner John Byrne talks to Deputy Chief Nurse Vanessa Sloane before receiving a Covid-19 vaccination at the Royal Hospital Chelsea, a retirement home for former soldiers, in London. PA
    Chelsea Pensioner John Byrne talks to Deputy Chief Nurse Vanessa Sloane before receiving a Covid-19 vaccination at the Royal Hospital Chelsea, a retirement home for former soldiers, in London. PA
  • A member of staff prepares a Covid-19 vaccine at a pop-up vaccination centre at Westfield Stratford City shopping centre in east London. PA
    A member of staff prepares a Covid-19 vaccine at a pop-up vaccination centre at Westfield Stratford City shopping centre in east London. PA
  • Artist Luke Jerram walks through his installation 'In Memoriam', in Bristol, west England. It was created to remember the losses experienced during the Covid-19 pandemic, and is made up of more than 100 flags made from NHS hospital bed sheets. PA
    Artist Luke Jerram walks through his installation 'In Memoriam', in Bristol, west England. It was created to remember the losses experienced during the Covid-19 pandemic, and is made up of more than 100 flags made from NHS hospital bed sheets. PA
  • Felix Dima, 13, receives his flu inoculation ahead of receiving a Covid-19 vaccine at the Excelsior Academy in Newcastle upon Tyne. Getty Images
    Felix Dima, 13, receives his flu inoculation ahead of receiving a Covid-19 vaccine at the Excelsior Academy in Newcastle upon Tyne. Getty Images

David Taylor, professor emeritus of pharmaceutical and public health policy at University College London, said the UK had some of the world’s best disease modellers in the world – and they had forecast a decline. He highlighted in particular work by Imperial College London and UCL.

A UCL forecast published on November 3, for example, suggested that the number of deaths per day would remain at about 150 then decline slowly.

“[These] models for some months have been indicating that if we maintain levels of vaccination and use the booster, and at the same time there are relatively high numbers of cases in children and young adults, causing immunity with little harm, the outlook for the UK over the winter is good,” Prof Taylor said.

“Although our record is in some ways chequered, on this occasion … it may be that we’re going to see quite a good level of control, although we shouldn’t in any way get complacent.”

What is causing the fall?

In the UK case numbers and death rates over the summer tended to be higher than those of similarly sized countries in Europe.

Young people in particular experienced significant increases in case numbers but more recently, there have been large falls in younger age groups.

Because more young people have now had Covid-19, levels of natural immunity have increased, which means that it is now harder for the virus to spread in people of this age group.

Also, vaccinated people in the UK may have more durable immunity to Covid-19 because first and second doses were spaced further apart then they were on the continent.

The UK has also given 12.6 million people a third “booster” coronavirus vaccine dose, which will help to protect some of the most vulnerable.

What is likely to happen now?

Ian Jones, a professor of virology at the University of Reading in the UK, said case numbers would change in waves. But he said these waves would be more modest than previous ones and a return to a lockdown – which some European nations are now experiencing – was unlikely.

“I think it’s the beginning of the end of the pandemic,” he said. “I think we’re at the end … we’ve just reached it before the continent.

“There are just less susceptible people around now … I don’t want to use the term 'herd immunity', because it’s a difficult concept.

“But you reach the point where the virus is finding it harder to infect people. Even though it can infect vaccinated people, it doesn’t find it easy.”

The UK, he said, was following Israel, which was one of the fastest to distribute vaccinations and has given boosters to four million of its population of 9.4 million. Rates are now low in Israel, with about 20 deaths per week.

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The Nobel Prize was created by wealthy Swedish chemist and entrepreneur Alfred Nobel.

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1) Phishing

Fraudsters send an unsolicited email that appears to be from a financial institution or online retailer. The hoax email requests that you provide sensitive information, often by clicking on to a link leading to a fake website.

2) Smishing

The SMS equivalent of phishing. Fraudsters falsify the telephone number through “text spoofing,” so that it appears to be a genuine text from the bank.

3) Vishing

The telephone equivalent of phishing and smishing. Fraudsters may pose as bank staff, police or government officials. They may persuade the consumer to transfer money or divulge personal information.

4) SIM swap

Fraudsters duplicate the SIM of your mobile number without your knowledge or authorisation, allowing them to conduct financial transactions with your bank.

5) Identity theft

Someone illegally obtains your confidential information, through various ways, such as theft of your wallet, bank and utility bill statements, computer intrusion and social networks.

6) Prize scams

Fraudsters claiming to be authorised representatives from well-known organisations (such as Etisalat, du, Dubai Shopping Festival, Expo2020, Lulu Hypermarket etc) contact victims to tell them they have won a cash prize and request them to share confidential banking details to transfer the prize money.

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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
HIJRA

Starring: Lamar Faden, Khairiah Nathmy, Nawaf Al-Dhufairy

Director: Shahad Ameen

Rating: 3/5

THE BIO: Martin Van Almsick

Hometown: Cologne, Germany

Family: Wife Hanan Ahmed and their three children, Marrah (23), Tibijan (19), Amon (13)

Favourite dessert: Umm Ali with dark camel milk chocolate flakes

Favourite hobby: Football

Breakfast routine: a tall glass of camel milk

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  • Add all their personal details, including name, nationality, passport number, Emiratis ID, email and phone number
  • Upload the training certificate from a centre accredited by the GCAA
  • Submit their request
What are the regulations?
  • Fly it within visual line of sight
  • Never over populated areas
  • Ensure maximum flying height of 400 feet (122 metres) above ground level is not crossed
  • Users must avoid flying over restricted areas listed on the UAE Drone app
  • Only fly the drone during the day, and never at night
  • Should have a live feed of the drone flight
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Dubai Bling season three

Cast: Loujain Adada, Zeina Khoury, Farhana Bodi, Ebraheem Al Samadi, Mona Kattan, and couples Safa & Fahad Siddiqui and DJ Bliss & Danya Mohammed 

Rating: 1/5

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Match info

Bournemouth 0
Liverpool 4
(Salah 25', 48', 76', Cook 68' OG)

Man of the match: Andrew Robertson (Liverpool)

UAE squad

Humaira Tasneem (c), Chamani Senevirathne (vc), Subha Srinivasan, NIsha Ali, Udeni Kuruppuarachchi, Chaya Mughal, Roopa Nagraj, Esha Oza, Ishani Senevirathne, Heena Hotchandani, Keveesha Kumari, Judith Cleetus, Chavi Bhatt, Namita D’Souza.

UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
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Yemeni government: Exiled government in Aden led by eight-member Presidential Leadership Council

Southern Transitional Council: Faction in Yemeni government that seeks autonomy for the south

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Results

1. Lewis Hamilton (Mercedes) 1hr 32mins 03.897sec

2. Max Verstappen (Red Bull-Honda) at 0.745s

3. Valtteri Bottas (Mercedes) 37.383s

4. Lando Norris (McLaren) 46.466s

5.Sergio Perez (Red Bull-Honda) 52.047s

6. Charles Leclerc (Ferrari) 59.090s

7. Daniel Ricciardo (McLaren) 1:06.004

8. Carlos Sainz Jr (Ferrari) 1:07.100

9. Yuki Tsunoda (AlphaTauri-Honda) 1:25.692

10. Lance Stroll (Aston Martin-Mercedes) 1:26.713,

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Updated: November 17, 2021, 6:36 AM