What happens if TikTok, one of the most popular social media apps, is banned in the US? That is the question on the minds of many developers, technology analysts and millions of users.
Much like Facebook, YouTube, Instagram and Snapchat, TikTok and its hundreds of millions of users have managed to create an economic powerhouse from content.
Gaurav Misra, chief executive and co-founder of Captions, a developer of popular video-editing and generation tools, said that while TikTok has proved to be one of the more influential storytelling platforms of the past decade, it is not without competitors that could capitalise on a ban.
“I think what will happen is that there's just going to be a lot more viewers on Instagram Reels,” Mr Misra said, referring to the vertical video format offered by Instagram in recent years.
Captions, which was founded in 2021, has been able to ride on the coattails of TikTok's success in recent years.
Captions' tools are regularly used by TikTok content creators to quickly edit and create videos, but Mr Misra insisted that his company's offerings are used for far more than TikTok videos, and that a ban on the platform would not affect his company much.
“I think we're pretty diversified at this point," he said. "I think especially in the US like, you know, TikTok is popular, but Instagram and YouTube are pretty popular as well, and we do expect that other platforms will take off."
Mr Misra said that one of Captions' main video editing competitors, CapCut, is owned by ByteDance, the Beijing-based company at the centre of the possible US ban because of concerns over user data privacy and national security. The fact that it is owned by ByteDance could become problematic for CapCut.
“It's an interesting aspect for us as a company. The bill doesn't necessarily ban TikTok specifically, but it references apps owned and operated by ByteDance … there's something for us there,” he said, referring to a possible competitive advantage.
But Mr Misra said that although a US TikTok ban could spell trouble for ByteDance, TikTok's shadow of influence will not be going anywhere any time soon. Previously, he said, success for content creators revolved around how many followers they had, but with TikTok's algorithm, followers simply do not matter as much. The platform has created more opportunity for users.
“I think the power of TikTok has been discovery, right?” he said. “It's just been like, anybody can make it, basically, which actually is kind of the American dream in a way.”
Yet without a doubt, that American dream is in jeopardy, critics say, because of ByteDance's home base of China. Time and again, the company's chief executive, Shou Zi Chew, has denied that user data is compromised and sought to assure US politicians that national security concerns are exaggerated.
Yet Mr Chew has not been able to move public opinion enough to stop Congress from passing bipartisan legislation that has led the company down this litigious and high-stakes path that could spell the end of the platform.
In its various media statements, ByteDance has claimed that small businesses on TikTok would lose more than $1 billion in revenue, and that content creators could lose up to $300 million in earnings.
Mr Misra said that regardless of a Supreme Court decision that will determine the constitutionality of the TikTok ban legislation, there is what could be a bigger story unfolding about how social-media companies have operated in recent years.
“Once you make it in as a social network, it actually serves as a centrepoint to power all kinds of other businesses,” he said. “I think at the core of it is this idea that social networks are monopolistic by nature, right? Like it's difficult to make a new one, and it's difficult to have more than one operate at the same time. You need a lot of money and a lot of power to be able to do that.”
As for Captions, Mr Misra insisted that it is not dependent on TikTok and its plans for 2025 would be unaffected by the Supreme Court's ruling.
“I think we're, you know, doing some pretty interesting things right now,” he said, referring to Captions' investment in artificial intelligence and various AI-infused editing tools.
He said that many content creators would easily find another home, with the storytelling formats continuing to evolve even if a TikTok ban goes into effect.
“I think the future of content creation, whether it's recording or editing, is going to be very different in the future or in 2025 compared to the past,” Mr Misra said.
According to the Supreme Court filing, TikTok and the US Justice Department will have to electronically file their briefs by Friday, and a hearing is scheduled to take place on January 10, a little more than one week before the January 19 deadline that could lead to the social media platform's ban in the US.
