Research suggests that analysing past flooding events in comparable areas may provide valuable foresight into future floods. AP
Research suggests that analysing past flooding events in comparable areas may provide valuable foresight into future floods. AP
Research suggests that analysing past flooding events in comparable areas may provide valuable foresight into future floods. AP
Research suggests that analysing past flooding events in comparable areas may provide valuable foresight into future floods. AP

How scientists hope to predict huge floods across Europe


Marwa Hassan
  • English
  • Arabic

Predicting megafloods in Europe may now be within reach by examining historical data from areas with similar hydrological features, researchers have found.

This finding has implications for the future of flood defence strategies across the continent.

Megafloods are extremely large and rare floods that drastically exceed the normal expectations for an area, often causing widespread destruction and loss of life. They are typically much larger than the biggest floods for which a region usually prepares.

In a study published in Nature Geoscience, Miriam Bertola and her colleagues analysed river discharge data from about 8,000 gauging stations throughout Europe, covering a period from 1810 to 2021.

Their research identified 510 instances of megafloods, revealing a trend where regions with similar water-related characteristics experience extreme flooding events of similar magnitudes.

The findings suggest that 95.5 per cent of these megafloods could have been anticipated by looking at previous events in comparable locations.

The study indicates a promising approach by adopting a continental-scale perspective when assessing flood risks, rather than limiting the focus to local catchment areas.

By implementing this strategy it may be possible to predict the magnitude of potential megafloods in Europe, based on data from areas with hydrologically similar characteristics.

The research indicates effective prediction and preparedness for such disastrous events might be achieved by sharing flood data across national borders, with European locations as reference points.

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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

FIRST TEST SCORES

England 458
South Africa 361 & 119 (36.4 overs)

England won by 211 runs and lead series 1-0

Player of the match: Moeen Ali (England)

 

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Updated: November 06, 2023, 5:00 PM