How scientists hope to predict huge floods across Europe

Continental approach would involve sharing data to foresee and prevent catastrophic flooding

Research suggests that analysing past flooding events in comparable areas may provide valuable foresight into future floods. AP

Predicting megafloods in Europe may now be within reach by examining historical data from areas with similar hydrological features, researchers have found.

This finding has implications for the future of flood defence strategies across the continent.

Megafloods are extremely large and rare floods that drastically exceed the normal expectations for an area, often causing widespread destruction and loss of life. They are typically much larger than the biggest floods for which a region usually prepares.

In a study published in Nature Geoscience, Miriam Bertola and her colleagues analysed river discharge data from about 8,000 gauging stations throughout Europe, covering a period from 1810 to 2021.

Their research identified 510 instances of megafloods, revealing a trend where regions with similar water-related characteristics experience extreme flooding events of similar magnitudes.

The findings suggest that 95.5 per cent of these megafloods could have been anticipated by looking at previous events in comparable locations.

The study indicates a promising approach by adopting a continental-scale perspective when assessing flood risks, rather than limiting the focus to local catchment areas.

By implementing this strategy it may be possible to predict the magnitude of potential megafloods in Europe, based on data from areas with hydrologically similar characteristics.

The research indicates effective prediction and preparedness for such disastrous events might be achieved by sharing flood data across national borders, with European locations as reference points.

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  A dam overflows at the Braskreidfoss hydroelectric power plant in Norway after Storm Hans battered parts of Scandinavia and the Baltics. EPA

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  The flood-hit city of Crna na Koroskem in Slovenia. AFP

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  A mudslide destroyed homes in the village of Bagn, in Valdres, southern Norway. AP

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  Floodwaters surround an outdoor swimming pool in the city of Leibnitz, south-eastern Austria. AFP

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  EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen embraces a resident of Crna na Koroskem as she visits flood-hit areas of Slovenia. AFP

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  A mudslide in Rottenstein, after heavy rainfall in southern Austria. AFP

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  A rescue worker climbs over trees uprooted by a mudslide in Valdres, Norway. AP

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  A section of road was swept away after the Susa river overflowed in Are, northern Sweden. Reuters

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  Flooding hit the north Slovakian province of Carinthia. AFP

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  A man wades through the flooded fishing port in Gothenburg, Sweden, after the Gota river burst its banks. AP