There is only a week to go until the Cop28 climate conference gets under way in Dubai.
The summit – being held from November 30 to December 12 – comes at the end of a year in which global temperatures have soared, extreme weather events have wreaked havoc and the UN has warned that the key 1.5ºC threshold is slipping out of reach.
And this has all come during a period of major geopolitical tension, from Ukraine to Gaza.
The UAE now has the task of trying to find consensus among close to 200 countries that will meet at Cop28 against this backdrop.
The backdrop to Cop28
Since the first Cop in 1995, the summits have changed from small, technical gatherings into major events. But the aim is the same: to drive momentum to tackle climate change.
Dr Sultan Al Jaber, Cop28 President-designate, has spent much of the year on what was described as a global listening tour to build momentum and ensure a smooth conference.
“You must listen to everyone,” said Moustafa Bayoumi, climate change research fellow at the Anwar Gargash Diplomatic Academy in Abu Dhabi. “Not just the parties, but the position of non-government bodies, companies, youths, indigenous people and more.”
Earlier this month Dr Al Jaber urged countries to “have the difficult conversations now” to ensure talks can begin immediately on November 30 without any delays.
“If we succeed in coming together now, we have a huge opportunity before us,” he said. “We can reimagine entire economies and put every nation on the path to a prosperous and sustainable future. So let’s unite, let’s act and let’s deliver in Dubai.”
The UAE role during Cop28
The presidency’s role varies from formal tasks such as declaring the opening and closing of sessions to providing leadership. The UNFCCC, the UN’s climate change body, also helps to ensure that procedure is followed.
During the final few days, the presidency plays an increasingly active role when talks can drag on into the night, tempers fray and negotiators get mired in detail.
“The level of intervention [from a Cop presidency] is going to be on how much political capital they have,” Mr Bayoumi said. “How much do the parties trust them to take this forward?”
Mr Bayoumi said there were positive signs, such as the framework deal on loss and damage agreed in Abu Dhabi last month that could set the stage at Cop28 for the fund to come into operation. But it was very hard to speculate on what might happen during the summit, where challenges in one negotiation track can affect others.
“For example, when finance negotiations are not going well there could be a slowdown in other negotiation rooms," Mr Bayoumi said. "If there is no money it is hard to agree on mitigation, adaptation and so on.”
Does the UAE negotiate?
The UAE stays neutral and does not negotiate. However, hosts can help steer the conversation. Mr Bayoumi pointed to Cop27 in Egypt where the loss and damage fund was first created.
“I would argue it would have been unlikely to have an agreement on loss and damage if this Cop was hosted in a developed country,” he said.
“Egypt was hosting Cop27 on behalf of the African continent. And they wanted to focus on a topic of concern for African countries.”
How will Dubai be remembered?
At Cop21 in 2015, the landmark Paris agreement was signed in which leaders agreed to “pursue efforts” to limit global temperature increases to 1.5ºC above pre-industrial levels. Conversely, talks at Cop15 in Copenhagen in 2009 were chaotic and it ended with only an acknowledgement of a deal struck by five nations, led by the US.
The difference between success and failure can hinge on how the presidency approaches the negotiating text that will form the “cover decision” typically issued at the end of the summit or other agreements.
“If the text feels like it is landing from the sky, no one will agree and that’s what happened in Copenhagen,” Mr Bayoumi said. “The text suggested was not building on what was being negotiated. The text was quite good and provided the basis of much of what was agreed in Paris. But the parties felt that this did not represent them.
“On the other hand, what the French presidency did very well … is that they always made sure the text was building on what was being negotiated.
”It is very important to have a good outcome on the global stocktake at Cop28 so we can for ever say it was achieved in Dubai," he added, referring to how, at Cop28, the first assessment of how the world is measuring up to the Paris deal will take place.
Will there be a positive outcome?
Aisha Al Sarihi, research fellow on the policy and politics of climate and environment at the National University of Singapore’s Middle East Institute, said the UAE would want a successful outcome for “legacy reasons” and would be keen to see progress on the 1.5ºC goal, loss and damage and the $100 billion annual finance goal from developed to developing countries that was pledged in 2009.
“I expect the … presidency will emphasise on ensuring a just energy transition to keep 1.5ºC within reach, a goal that might be appealing and will receive support from the majority of country delegations, especially developing, least developed and small island countries,” she said.
“The UAE would want to use its credentials, as both a wealthy nation classified as [a] developing country, to leave a legacy in building the trust between developed and developing countries.”
Mr Bayoumi said that while the outcome was always very hard to anticipate and things can change quickly, the UAE had put in a lot of effort.
“There are high expectations because the UAE is one of the few countries that can talk to all,” he said. "And in some ways can forge consensus.”
Ten pictures that tell the story of the climate crisis
-
A child stands in his family's yard as a wildfire burns nearby, in the village of Agios Charalampos near Athens, in July 2023. Europe saw record temperatures amid a relentless heatwave and wildfires that scorched vast regions of the Northern Hemisphere, forcing the evacuation of 1,200 children close to a Greek seaside resort. Health authorities sounded alarms from North America to Europe and Asia, urging people to stay hydrated and shelter from the burning sun, in a stark reminder of the effects of global warming. AFP -
A resident uses a buoy to move through a flooded house after heavy rains in Bago township, in Myanmar's Bago region, in October. Floods sparked by record rain hit parts of southern Myanmar, inundating roads and fields and sending residents fleeing for higher ground. AFP -
Ali Hakim, an Iraqi Marsh Arab man, Iooks at the remains of a buffalo that died due to drought and the salinity of the water at the Basra marshes, Iraq. Reuters -
Iris Hsueh, left, and her fiance Ian Ciou pose for a pre-wedding photo in front of a rubbish heap in Puli Township, Taiwan. The couple chose the site for their photoshoot because the environment-conscious bride said she wanted to discourage guests and the public from generating waste. AFP -
Residents of a riverside community in Amazonas state, Brazil, carry food and containers of drinking water distributed by the state's humanitarian aid action, amid a continuing drought and high temperatures that affect the region of the Solimoes River. AP -
The edge of Larsen C Ice Shelf, left, and the western edge of iceberg A68 in the distance over the Antarctic in November 2017. The iceberg detached from the ice shelf in July 2017, becoming one of the largest in recorded history to split off from Antarctica. AFP -
A man walks past construction vehicles submerged in debris caused by flash floods after a lake burst in Rangpo, India, in October. Reuters -
A mobile home swept by floodwaters in Steinhatchee, Florida, in August 2023, after Hurricane Idalia made landfall. Idalia slammed into north-west Florida as an 'extremely dangerous' Category 3 storm, buffeting coastal communities as officials warned of 'catastrophic' flooding in parts of the southern US state. AFP -
A floating solar farm, built on the site of a former coal mine since filled with water, in Huainan, China. The installation by Sungrow Power Supply Co covers the size of more than 400 football pitches and generates power for more than 100,000 homes. Getty Images -
A handprint of glue left behind by an activist from the group Last Generation (Letzte Generation), after they were removed by police, is visible on the asphalt following a blockade at an intersection in Berlin, Germany, in September. Last Generation is continuing its disruptive protests in an effort to put pressure on politicians to stop the burning of fossil fuels. Getty Images
