The Cop28 summit in Dubai is the most important UN climate change conference in eight years, as the goals of the 2015 Paris Agreement will be evaluated for the first time by world leaders, a senior Spanish officials has told The National.
The agreement set 2023 as the year for a first global stocktake, which will be “the real test to confirm that we can reach 1.5°C in the next decade", said Valvanera Maria Ulargui Aparicio, director general at the Spanish government’s office for climate change.
She was referring to pledges by world leaders to limit the increase in global temperatures to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
The global stocktake is not simply a progress assessment, it represents a “real exercise to look beyond and identify concrete actions that we need to put on the table", she said.
The stocktake will influence the next nationally determined contributions, or NDCs, which outline each country’s plans to cut emissions and adapt to climate change.
“If these national commitments are not ambitious enough, the gap will not be closed,” Ms Ulargui Aparicio said.
She spoke to The National at a conference organised by the European Commission in Brussels aimed at highlighting Europe’s efforts to adhere to the goals of the Paris Agreement.
In a technical report published in September, the UN warned the world was “not on track” to slow global warming to 1.5°C.
“Time is not on our side,” EU Commissioner for Climate Action Wopke Hoekstra said.
The bloc aims to achieve net zero by 2050 and expects to reduce carbon emissions by about 57 per cent by 2030, compared with 1990.
“We feel Cop28 is the opportunity to aim higher than any other Cop before,” said Mr Hoekstra, who plans to present a target of 90 per cent net emission reduction by 2040.
Ms Ulargui Aparicio said the main priority was to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to commit to them peaking by 2025 at the latest.
'We must be brave'
“We must be very, very brave on energy transition goals,” she said. “If we do not peak fossil fuels this decade, if we do not reduce drastically their consumption and production, it will not be enough.”
Ms Ulargui Aparicio said called for more investment in the green transition in the developing world.
“We need to help Africa and the most vulnerable [countries] with clear, concrete goals, otherwise the rest of the regulatory framework and market improvements will not happen,” she said.
Cop28 is the last chance to make “credible commitments to start bending the curve on fossil fuel-based emissions", Johan Rockstrom, director for the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, told The National.
“We need to have credible outcomes in Dubai to start reducing emissions from oil, coal and gas,” he said.
Mr Rockstrom called on “big economies” including he US, India, China and the EU to “step up” to tackle the climate crisis.
Speaking during a panel, he said aiming to limit global warming by 1.5°C was “non-negotiable".
“It’s a physical limit where life would cross a number of tipping points that would undermine livelihoods for many people around the world,” he told the panel.
Policymakers and scientists must also be “humble” in the face of the enormity of the task, Mr Rockstrom said.
“We have been powering the economy with fossil fuels for 250 years and now we are transitioning to green energy," he added.
“It is the biggest transition for humankind on planet Earth. We must be humble to that fact."
Will the pound fall to parity with the dollar?
The idea of pound parity now seems less far-fetched as the risk grows that Britain may split away from the European Union without a deal.
Rupert Harrison, a fund manager at BlackRock, sees the risk of it falling to trade level with the dollar on a no-deal Brexit. The view echoes Morgan Stanley’s recent forecast that the currency can plunge toward $1 (Dh3.67) on such an outcome. That isn’t the majority view yet – a Bloomberg survey this month estimated the pound will slide to $1.10 should the UK exit the bloc without an agreement.
New Prime Minister Boris Johnson has repeatedly said that Britain will leave the EU on the October 31 deadline with or without an agreement, fuelling concern the nation is headed for a disorderly departure and fanning pessimism toward the pound. Sterling has fallen more than 7 per cent in the past three months, the worst performance among major developed-market currencies.
“The pound is at a much lower level now but I still think a no-deal exit would lead to significant volatility and we could be testing parity on a really bad outcome,” said Mr Harrison, who manages more than $10 billion in assets at BlackRock. “We will see this game of chicken continue through August and that’s likely negative for sterling,” he said about the deadlocked Brexit talks.
The pound fell 0.8 per cent to $1.2033 on Friday, its weakest closing level since the 1980s, after a report on the second quarter showed the UK economy shrank for the first time in six years. The data means it is likely the Bank of England will cut interest rates, according to Mizuho Bank.
The BOE said in November that the currency could fall even below $1 in an analysis on possible worst-case Brexit scenarios. Options-based calculations showed around a 6.4 per cent chance of pound-dollar parity in the next one year, markedly higher than 0.2 per cent in early March when prospects of a no-deal outcome were seemingly off the table.
Bloomberg
Tentative schedule of 2017/18 Ashes series
1st Test November 23-27, The Gabba, Brisbane
2nd Test December 2-6, Adelaide Oval, Adelaide
3rd Test Dcember 14-18, Waca, Perth
4th Test December 26-30, Melbourne Cricket Ground, Melbourne
5th Test January 4-8, Sydney Cricket Ground, Sydney
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Ultra processed foods
- Carbonated drinks, sweet or savoury packaged snacks, confectionery, mass-produced packaged breads and buns
- margarines and spreads; cookies, biscuits, pastries, cakes, and cake mixes, breakfast cereals, cereal and energy bars;
- energy drinks, milk drinks, fruit yoghurts and fruit drinks, cocoa drinks, meat and chicken extracts and instant sauces
- infant formulas and follow-on milks, health and slimming products such as powdered or fortified meal and dish substitutes,
- many ready-to-heat products including pre-prepared pies and pasta and pizza dishes, poultry and fish nuggets and sticks, sausages, burgers, hot dogs, and other reconstituted meat products, powdered and packaged instant soups, noodles and desserts.
WTL%20SCHEDULE
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Who has lived at The Bishops Avenue?
- George Sainsbury of the supermarket dynasty, sugar magnate William Park Lyle and actress Dame Gracie Fields were residents in the 1930s when the street was only known as ‘Millionaires’ Row’.
- Then came the international super rich, including the last king of Greece, Constantine II, the Sultan of Brunei and Indian steel magnate Lakshmi Mittal who was at one point ranked the third richest person in the world.
- Turkish tycoon Halis Torprak sold his mansion for £50m in 2008 after spending just two days there. The House of Saud sold 10 properties on the road in 2013 for almost £80m.
- Other residents have included Iraqi businessman Nemir Kirdar, singer Ariana Grande, holiday camp impresario Sir Billy Butlin, businessman Asil Nadir, Paul McCartney’s former wife Heather Mills.
Hunting park to luxury living
- Land was originally the Bishop of London's hunting park, hence the name
- The road was laid out in the mid 19th Century, meandering through woodland and farmland
- Its earliest houses at the turn of the 20th Century were substantial detached properties with extensive grounds