The negative impact of climate change will continue way into the next century even if the world starts to reduce the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere by 2050, a study has revealed.
According to the research, even in a scenario of “negative emissions” by the middle of the century – where more greenhouse gases are removed from the atmosphere than are released – or if the world is at net-zero, areas of permafrost will keep thawing and giving out both carbon dioxide and methane.
One of the study authors, Dr Norman Steinert, a senior researcher at the Cicero Centre for International Climate Research in Oslo, said that permafrost responded on timescales that were centuries or millennia long, so he was “not surprised to see projection of permafrost as a long-term source of carbon emissions”.
“As long as temperatures are net positive relative to pre-industrial [times], permafrost will be exposed to a warmer climate and therefore emit carbon,” he told The National.
Most permafrost is in the Northern Hemisphere, with large areas around the Arctic in Alaska, Siberia, Canada and the Tibetan Plateau, although there is permafrost around the Antarctic too.
When it thaws it releases carbon dioxide and methane – which has a warming effect more than 25 times that of CO2 – because the organic matter trapped within it is broken down by microorganisms.
Can permafrost ever recover?
The research, published in Science Advances and also carried out by scientists in South Korea and the United States, involved computer modelling of changes in permafrost between the years 2000 and 2300.
Dr Steinert said that the amount of carbon released was determined by the temperature the permafrost had been exposed to, not just at any given point, but over time.
He also said that with negative emission scenarios, permafrost would cool more slowly than the air, which is another factor causing the release of carbon emissions to continue.
Climate change-induced alterations to a major ocean circulation pattern, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), which brings warm water from the tropics north, could have a cooling effect on permafrost, but not enough to cancel out other warming effects.
Effects such as cooling from a slowdown in the AMOC “cannot be an excuse to delay climate action”, according to Dr Steinert.
The scientific community is, he said, “still debating a potential tipping point for permafrost”, meaning a point at which global-scale thawing and the release of carbon emissions from it cannot be stopped.
Alternatively, permafrost thaw and associated carbon loss may happen gradually with every increment of global warming, without there being a warming level that can be considered “safe” until crossed.
A study last year indicated that a runaway effect was less likely than had been feared, and the new research indicates that there could be some recovery in permafrost area if temperatures fell sufficiently.
However, Dr Steinert said that permafrost carbon loss due to human-induced warming was irreversible on human timescales.
Time to act
Bob Ward, of the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, part of the London School of Economics, said that he hoped “all countries would be paying attention” to findings like those in the new study.
“It's one example of the many ways we're carrying out an experiment without being aware of the many consequences,” he said. “It just shows that we're in a worse situation, even worse situation, than we realise ... If we carry on our current path, we’re not just going to trigger thawing permafrost, but many other climate thresholds [could be breached].”
This could result in, he said, the destabilisation of the polar ice sheets, changes to circulations in the North Atlantic, and “major disruption” to monsoons.
Some climate change-induced processes, such as sea-level rises, are set to continue for thousands of years, even without further greenhouse gas emissions, highlighted Asher Minns, executive director of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research at the University of East Anglia in the UK.
“We should have turned off the CO2 taps maybe 20 or so years ago, so we’re well beyond the threshold when we should have acted,” he said. “That means action is needed even more urgently across all sectors of the planetary economy.”
Mr Minns also said that as well as efforts to mitigate climate change, prompt action was needed to adapt to its looming effects, as it is cheaper to act now than later.
The impact of climate change on the Middle East – in pictures
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
If you go
Flight connections to Ulaanbaatar are available through a variety of hubs, including Seoul and Beijing, with airlines including Mongolian Airlines and Korean Air. While some nationalities, such as Americans, don’t need a tourist visa for Mongolia, others, including UAE citizens, can obtain a visa on arrival, while others including UK citizens, need to obtain a visa in advance. Contact the Mongolian Embassy in the UAE for more information.
Nomadic Road offers expedition-style trips to Mongolia in January and August, and other destinations during most other months. Its nine-day August 2020 Mongolia trip will cost from $5,250 per person based on two sharing, including airport transfers, two nights’ hotel accommodation in Ulaanbaatar, vehicle rental, fuel, third party vehicle liability insurance, the services of a guide and support team, accommodation, food and entrance fees; nomadicroad.com
A fully guided three-day, two-night itinerary at Three Camel Lodge costs from $2,420 per person based on two sharing, including airport transfers, accommodation, meals and excursions including the Yol Valley and Flaming Cliffs. A return internal flight from Ulaanbaatar to Dalanzadgad costs $300 per person and the flight takes 90 minutes each way; threecamellodge.com
Gulf Under 19s final
Dubai College A 50-12 Dubai College B
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Where to buy
Limited-edition art prints of The Sofa Series: Sultani can be acquired from Reem El Mutwalli at www.reemelmutwalli.com
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cylturbo
Transmission: seven-speed DSG automatic
Power: 242bhp
Torque: 370Nm
Price: Dh136,814
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%3Cp%3EThe%20UAE%20will%20host%20Scotland%20for%20a%20three-match%20T20I%20series%20at%20the%20Dubai%20International%20Stadium%20next%20month.%3Cbr%3EThe%20two%20sides%20will%20start%20their%20Cricket%20World%20Cup%20League%202%20campaigns%20with%20a%20tri-series%20also%20involving%20Canada%2C%20starting%20on%20January%2029.%3Cbr%3EThat%20series%20will%20be%20followed%20by%20a%20bilateral%20T20%20series%20on%20March%2011%2C%2013%20and%2014.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
In-demand jobs and monthly salaries
- Technology expert in robotics and automation: Dh20,000 to Dh40,000
- Energy engineer: Dh25,000 to Dh30,000
- Production engineer: Dh30,000 to Dh40,000
- Data-driven supply chain management professional: Dh30,000 to Dh50,000
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- Engineering leader: Dh30,000 to Dh55,000
- Project manager: Dh55,000 to Dh65,000
- Senior reservoir engineer: Dh40,000 to Dh55,000
- Senior drilling engineer: Dh38,000 to Dh46,000
- Senior process engineer: Dh28,000 to Dh38,000
- Senior maintenance engineer: Dh22,000 to Dh34,000
- Field engineer: Dh6,500 to Dh7,500
- Field supervisor: Dh9,000 to Dh12,000
- Field operator: Dh5,000 to Dh7,000
How to become a Boglehead
Bogleheads follow simple investing philosophies to build their wealth and live better lives. Just follow these steps.
• Spend less than you earn and save the rest. You can do this by earning more, or being frugal. Better still, do both.
• Invest early, invest often. It takes time to grow your wealth on the stock market. The sooner you begin, the better.
• Choose the right level of risk. Don't gamble by investing in get-rich-quick schemes or high-risk plays. Don't play it too safe, either, by leaving long-term savings in cash.
• Diversify. Do not keep all your eggs in one basket. Spread your money between different companies, sectors, markets and asset classes such as bonds and property.
• Keep charges low. The biggest drag on investment performance is all the charges you pay to advisers and active fund managers.
• Keep it simple. Complexity is your enemy. You can build a balanced, diversified portfolio with just a handful of ETFs.
• Forget timing the market. Nobody knows where share prices will go next, so don't try to second-guess them.
• Stick with it. Do not sell up in a market crash. Use the opportunity to invest more at the lower price.
Classification of skills
A worker is categorised as skilled by the MOHRE based on nine levels given in the International Standard Classification of Occupations (ISCO) issued by the International Labour Organisation.
A skilled worker would be someone at a professional level (levels 1 – 5) which includes managers, professionals, technicians and associate professionals, clerical support workers, and service and sales workers.
The worker must also have an attested educational certificate higher than secondary or an equivalent certification, and earn a monthly salary of at least Dh4,000.
SHOW COURTS ORDER OF PLAY
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Profile
Company: Justmop.com
Date started: December 2015
Founders: Kerem Kuyucu and Cagatay Ozcan
Sector: Technology and home services
Based: Jumeirah Lake Towers, Dubai
Size: 55 employees and 100,000 cleaning requests a month
Funding: The company’s investors include Collective Spark, Faith Capital Holding, Oak Capital, VentureFriends, and 500 Startups.
Tell Me Who I Am
Director: Ed Perkins
Stars: Alex and Marcus Lewis
Four stars
MATCH STATS
Wolves 0
Aston Villa 1 (El Ghazi 90 4' pen)
Red cards: Joao Moutinho (Wolves); Douglas Luiz (Aston Villa)
Man of the match: Emi Martinez (Aston Villa)
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cyl turbo
Power: 247hp at 6,500rpm
Torque: 370Nm from 1,500-3,500rpm
Transmission: 10-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 7.8L/100km
Price: from Dh94,900
On sale: now
