In its 37 years of existence, the UAE has made a point of procuring arms from countries spanning the globe, from big hitters such as the US, Russia and Europe to niche players including Brazil and Switzerland. But this multi-source approach will be put to the test when it decides on a supplier for its biggest missile deal in 30 years. The Government is considering a US$9 billion (Dh33.03bn) purchase of advanced missile technology to create a formidable air defence shield against known threats as well as weapons that have yet to be developed.
"It's well known they are looking to invest heavily in a new air missile defence system," said Jim O'Halloran, the editor of Jane's Land-Based Air Defence. "It's a competition between Russia and Raytheon [of the US]. Until the contract is signed, both sides have everything to play for." A select group of US suppliers is courting the UAE Armed Forces for a multi-layered system incorporating short-, medium- and long-range missiles. If signed, the deal will also bring the country closer to the US.
But the UAE, which has used its arms purchases to foster alliances with the world's leading powers, may keep with its tradition of arms sales diplomacy and buy its defensive missiles from Russia instead. "The UAE is playing the political game here, as much as anything else," Mr O'Halloran said. "They are buying from all over the place." The missiles will bolster the country's defences as it phases out the US-made Hawk missile system from Raytheon.
For several decades, the country's main perceived threat was an air attack launched from Iraq, but since the fall of Saddam Hussein, that perception had shifted to Iran, Mr O'Halloran said. The Pentagon has already notified the US Congress of potential sales to the UAE of up to 504 missiles, which is a necessary step prior to any deal, but not a guarantee that one will be sealed. The potential contracts comprise the long-range Patriot systems, developed by Raytheon and Lockheed Martin, which were used in the First Gulf War to protect Saudi Arabia and Israel from Iraq's Scud ballistic missiles.
The UAE is also considering Raytheon's medium-range SLAMRAAM air intercept missiles, which can be used to take out low-flying cruise missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles. However, the UAE is not only considering current threats. It is also preparing for future weapons that could menace the country, and so has also reportedly expressed interest in the longer-range Terminal High Altitude Area Defence (THAAD) system developed by Lockheed Martin, which can destroy missiles in space.
But the UAE also has an extensive history of arms purchases from Russia and may not want to be tied to one overarching system. For instance, the armed forces have nearly 600 BMP-3 Russian infantry combat vehicles. Russia's Almaz Central Design Bureau, a defence contractor, is hoping to parlay its nation's relationship with the UAE with a sale of its S-400 Triumph. The lorry-based missile defence system is designed to intercept and destroy aircraft, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles at a distance of up to 400km.
A UAE Government source declined to go into specifics about its buying strategy. "We are constantly seeking to improve our air defences, integrating the latest technology," he said. Albert Del Checcolo, the director of Patriot missile programmes at Raytheon Integrated Defence Systems, said: "We understand the UAE has a very serious interest in developing an integrated air-defence capability, and they are looking at several systems in order to achieve that.
"My perception would be that they recognise that they are in a relatively dangerous area of the world, and they do have some very high-value assets, basically oil and gas, which I think would become prime targets." Mr Del Checcolo said he expected the UAE to purchase some defensive missiles in the next few months, with more to follow next year. When the Government finally makes a choice of missile system, it will conclude a competition between the former Cold War powers that originally began more than a decade ago.
The Russian and American manufacturers first locked horns for the UAE contract in 1997, offering earlier variants of today's missiles. However, the issue was put on the back burner until a few years ago, and the Government placed an interim order for 80 F-16 fighter jets from Lockheed Martin. The UAE may have deferred the decision because it felt the missile defence system was unnecessary at the time, Mr O'Halloran said. Since then, the intensifying standoff between the UN and Iran over its nuclear programme has increased the risk of conflict in the region as a whole, analysts say.
Iran has invested heavily in Shahab-3 medium-range offensive missiles, which can strike targets across the Gulf and the Middle East. As a result, last December the US Congress was formally notified of potential sales to the UAE for 288 Patriot Advanced Capability-3 missiles, developed by Lockheed Martin, and 216 Patriot Guidance Enhanced Missiles, developed by Raytheon. If all options are exercised, including launching stations and radar systems, the deal would be worth $9bn.
The Patriot missile was first deployed during the 1990-1991 Gulf War, when it was used to intercept Iraqi Scuds fired on Saudia Arabia and Israel. Success ratios ranged between 40 per cent and 70 per cent, Raytheon said. In May, however, Reuters reported that the UAE had also signalled its interest in the new THAAD programme, in a separate deal worth $7bn. Representatives from the UAE were among a small group of nations last year observing a test of the system, which is expected to be operational by 2010.
Mr O'Halloran said it was unlikely the UAE would choose both the Patriot and the THAAD systems. "The country isn't big enough for it," he said. "It's much more likely they will choose one or the other." He noted that the Russians would submit a competitive bid. "Russia will offer the UAE a good package, although they won't offer the same kind of support Raytheon will offer," he said. If signed, the deal would be the third major missile defence agreement for the UAE in recent months. In June, Emirates Advanced Investments joined with Raytheon in a project to set up a UAE-based company to develop and build laser-guided rockets.
This month, the UAE also agreed on a $115 million joint purchase with Oman of anti-tank Javelin missiles from Raytheon and Lockheed Martin. @Email:igale@thenational.ae
