The benchmark National 100 Index of Borsa Istanbul has dived 10 per cent since the clashes between police and thousands of demonstrators seeking to halt the construction of a shopping mall on Istanbul's Gezi Park. Kerem Uzel / Bloomberg News
The benchmark National 100 Index of Borsa Istanbul has dived 10 per cent since the clashes between police and thousands of demonstrators seeking to halt the construction of a shopping mall on Istanbul's Gezi Park. Kerem Uzel / Bloomberg News
The benchmark National 100 Index of Borsa Istanbul has dived 10 per cent since the clashes between police and thousands of demonstrators seeking to halt the construction of a shopping mall on Istanbul's Gezi Park. Kerem Uzel / Bloomberg News
The benchmark National 100 Index of Borsa Istanbul has dived 10 per cent since the clashes between police and thousands of demonstrators seeking to halt the construction of a shopping mall on Istanbul

Turkey counts cost of political risk


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Turkey's stock market has shed 58 billion liras (Dh113.25bn) of its value since protests began, triggering a double whammy on asset prices and currency depreciation for foreigners who worry about a political risk premium hike.

"Investors are very worried about an increase of political risk premium in the country," said Burak Isyar, an equity analyst at the Istanbul-based Burgan Yatirim Menkul Degerler.

"They will be following developments as not the whole picture is visible at this stage."

The Borsa Istanbul Exchange's market capitalisation has been wiped to 461bn liras from 519bn liras on May 31, when Turkish police first fired tear gas on thousands of demonstrators seeking to halt the construction of a shopping mall on Istanbul's Gezi Park. Turkey's currency, the lira, has depreciated from 1.86 per dollar on May 31, to touch 1.90 per dollar on Tuesday.

The benchmark National 100 Index has dived 10 per cent, while the cost of insurance against Turkish debt rose 41 basis points to 172 - heading towards a 10-month high.

Moody's Investors Service, which upgraded Turkey by one notch to Baa3 before the protests began, warned on Monday over a potential hike in credit risk if protests continued.

"These political disturbances become increasingly credit-negative the more they intensify and the longer they continue because they heighten the government of Turkey's … susceptibility to balance-of-payments risks through reduced tourist arrivals and portfolio investment inflows, an important source of current account funding," the ratings agency said on Monday in a report.

Tim Ash, the head of emerging market research at Standard Bank in London, said "depending on how long this goes on, if there is no turn around on the political front, and the economy begins to deteriorate", Turkey could see its investment grade rating effected.

Recep Erdogan's actions are a marked shift from the market-friendly position AKP (Justice and Development Party) has been known for among investors.

"Time after time, they responded to market concerns and pressure by moderating policy, but something is different this time and their rhetoric is uber market unfriendly - they don't seem to care," said Mr Ash.

"It is strange that they are somehow trying to pin the blame for the protests on markets, and market participants, including foreigners."

Mr Ash was referring to Mr Erdogan's attack on speculators on Sunday, when he allegedly accused them of holding back Turkey's economic growth through the adoption of high interest rates.

At a rally in Ankara, Mr Erdogan tried to deflect the demise of the financial markets on an "interest-rate lobby".

"The lobby who has exploited the sweat of my people for years. You will not from now on. If we catch your speculation, we will choke you. No matter who you are we will choke you," Mr Erdogan said.

"I am saying the same thing to one bank, three banks, all banks that make up this lobby. You have started this fight against us, you will pay the high price for it." On Tuesday, the Central Bank said it would tighten monetary policy and was ready to act directly into the currency market if necessary.

The measure would reduce Turkish lira liquidity into the banking system, bringing up costs and rates with it.

"It was important, necessary and expected," said Christian Maggio, a senior emerging markets strategist at TD Securities in London. "They haven't assured markets. They won't stop this (Lira depreciation) by announcing something and doing some FX sales. They have just started."

The benchmark bond yield rose to above 7 per cent yesterday, the highest level since November, on expectations the central bank will raise funding costs further.

Average funding costs rose to 4.98 per cent on Tuesday from 4.68 per cent on Monday.

Yesterday, the central bank governor Erdem Basci said economic growth, which was 3 per cent year-on-year in the first quarter, is expected to pick up in the second quarter and inflation will start to fall from August.

The President's Cake

Director: Hasan Hadi

Starring: Baneen Ahmad Nayyef, Waheed Thabet Khreibat, Sajad Mohamad Qasem 

Rating: 4/5

The biog

Name: Mohammed Imtiaz

From: Gujranwala, Pakistan

Arrived in the UAE: 1976

Favourite clothes to make: Suit

Cost of a hand-made suit: From Dh550

 

Why it pays to compare

A comparison of sending Dh20,000 from the UAE using two different routes at the same time - the first direct from a UAE bank to a bank in Germany, and the second from the same UAE bank via an online platform to Germany - found key differences in cost and speed. The transfers were both initiated on January 30.

Route 1: bank transfer

The UAE bank charged Dh152.25 for the Dh20,000 transfer. On top of that, their exchange rate margin added a difference of around Dh415, compared with the mid-market rate.

Total cost: Dh567.25 - around 2.9 per cent of the total amount

Total received: €4,670.30 

Route 2: online platform

The UAE bank’s charge for sending Dh20,000 to a UK dirham-denominated account was Dh2.10. The exchange rate margin cost was Dh60, plus a Dh12 fee.

Total cost: Dh74.10, around 0.4 per cent of the transaction

Total received: €4,756

The UAE bank transfer was far quicker – around two to three working days, while the online platform took around four to five days, but was considerably cheaper. In the online platform transfer, the funds were also exposed to currency risk during the period it took for them to arrive.

The biog

Full name: Aisha Abdulqader Saeed

Age: 34

Emirate: Dubai

Favourite quote: "No one has ever become poor by giving"

U19 World Cup in South Africa

Group A: India, Japan, New Zealand, Sri Lanka

Group B: Australia, England, Nigeria, West Indies

Group C: Bangladesh, Pakistan, Scotland, Zimbabwe

Group D: Afghanistan, Canada, South Africa, UAE

UAE fixtures

Saturday, January 18, v Canada

Wednesday, January 22, v Afghanistan

Saturday, January 25, v South Africa

UAE squad

Aryan Lakra (captain), Vriitya Aravind, Deshan Chethyia, Mohammed Farazuddin, Jonathan Figy, Osama Hassan, Karthik Meiyappan, Rishabh Mukherjee, Ali Naseer, Wasi Shah, Alishan Sharafu, Sanchit Sharma, Kai Smith, Akasha Tahir, Ansh Tandon

Summer special
ADCC AFC Women’s Champions League Group A fixtures

October 3: v Wuhan Jiangda Women’s FC
October 6: v Hyundai Steel Red Angels Women’s FC
October 9: v Sabah FA