India’s largest digital-payments provider lost more than a quarter of its value in its first day of trading, marking one of the worst-ever debuts by a major technology company and casting a chill over a stock-market boom that had ranked among the world’s most frenzied.
The plunge of 27.4 per cent in One 97 Communications, operator of Paytm, surprised even some sceptics who had questioned the company’s valuation and path to profitability. Retail investors who piled into the offering are now sitting on heavy losses, alongside global money managers including BlackRock and the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board.
India’s biggest-ever IPO had been touted by some as a symbol of the country’s growing appeal as a destination for global capital, particularly for technology investors looking for alternatives to China. The question now looming over the $3.5 trillion stock market is whether the optimism that drove IPO fund-raising and the benchmark S&P BSE Sensex to record highs has gone too far.
“This kind of a plunge, frankly, has come as a surprise considering the euphoria surrounding the primary market,” said Yasha Shah, head of equity research at Samco Securities.
Paytm shares sank to 1,560.8 rupees ($21) in Mumbai. That compared with the IPO price of 2,150 rupees, the top end of the marketed range. The Sensex dropped as much as 1 per cent, among the largest declines in Asia.
Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs Group, Axis Capital, ICICI Securities, JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup and HDFC Bank were the bookrunning lead managers for the sale.
The payments provider’s IPO has become one of the most disappointing major tech industry debuts of all time. Its fall rivals Deliveroo’s plunge of as much as 31 per cent to rank among the sector’s worst day-one slumps in percentage terms since Telstra’s first-time share sale in 1997.
Paytm raised about $2.5 billion in the IPO, with individual investors bidding for nearly twice the number of shares that were available.
Nikhil Kamath, co-founder of Zerodha Broking, the country’s largest brokerage, wasn’t so much surprised by the correction in Paytm as he was with the froth visible in the number of recent first-time share sales that have been oversubscribed.
“There has been a euphoria around IPOs in India, supported by the bull run in stocks, and people got carried away by it,” Mr Kamath said. “For Paytm, the runway for their profitability is too long and doesn’t justify the far-fetched pricing.”
Institutional players are more savvy than retail, who are bearing the brunt of the losses, Mr Kamath said. While there’s no denying that Indian startups have created incredible businesses, they shouldn’t be valued too richly, he added.
“There should be a middle ground where pricing should be more favorable to the retail investors,” he said.
In an interview with Bloomberg News minutes after shares sank at the open, Paytm founder and chief executive Vijay Shekhar Sharma said the slump “is no indicator of the value of our company.”
“We are in it for the long haul,” he said. “We’ll put our heads down and execute.”
Sharma founded Paytm two decades ago and pioneered digital payments in a predominantly cash-transacting country of 1.3 billion people. The name, short for Pay Through Mobile, rhymes with ATM.
“There’s never a right moment, a correct share price and an accurate valuation,” Mr Sharma said. “We are at the starting point and investors will get to know us in the coming quarters, years and decades.”
Ahead of the listing, Macquarie Capital Securities initiated coverage on the company with an underperform rating and a price target of 1,200 rupees, implying an over 40 per cent downside from the issue price.
“We believe Paytm’s business model lacks focus and direction,” analysts Suresh Ganapathy and Param Subramanian wrote in the report. “Unless Paytm lends, it can’t make significant money by merely being a distributor. We therefore question its ability to achieve scale with profitability.”
The market debut of Paytm, backed by Berkshire Hathaway, SoftBank and Ant Group, comes in a standout year for India’s internet startups.
The number of so-called unicorns in the country has doubled and public markets have witnessed strong listing performances of many, including food-delivery service Zomato, beauty retailer Nykaa’s parent FSN E-Commerce Ventures and PB Fintech, operator of online insurance marketplace Policybazaar.
IPOs in the South Asian nation have raised about $15bn so far this year, already an annual record by total proceeds. Companies that started trading in 2021 rose by an average of 23 per cent in their first session, according to data compiled by Bloomberg as of November 15.
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe
Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010
Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille
Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm
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Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners
TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013
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Norway
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