Record sales of homes to foreigners in Turkey, driven by a sharply falling currency and the promise of citizenship, are starting to slow after a new government rule aimed at tackling inflated prices, property experts say.
Before the rule change, some cheaper homes were being marked up and sold to foreigners for at least $250,000 — the minimum price for Turkey to grant foreigners a passport, property sellers and real estate professionals said.
Some sellers were working with selected appraisal companies to inflate prices and secure citizenship for buyers with the difference between the market value and the price paid in some cases later returned to buyers, they said.
But under a regulation adopted last month, the land registry authority now automatically assigns appraisers to properties, thwarting collaboration that could lead to abuse.
GIGDER, an industry body that promotes Turkish home builders abroad, said that since September 20, when the regulation was adopted, prices of some homes sold to foreigners have dropped by 30 per cent to 45 per cent, prompting some prospective buyers to walk away.
“This difference between construction companies' sales prices and new valuations has led to distrust among foreigners,” Omer Faruk Akbal, the head of GIGDER, said.
This difference between construction companies' sales prices and new valuations has led to distrust among foreigners
Omer Faruk Akbal,
the head of GIGDER
“We have since seen sales offices emptying out and presale contracts getting cancelled.”
A construction boom has helped drive economic growth through much of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's nearly two decades in power and, under the citizenship scheme, cash from abroad helped offset Turkey's usually heavy trade imbalance.
About 7,000 foreigners received Turkish citizenship via home purchases between 2017 and 2020, the government said last year.
The General Directorate overseeing land registries said it adopted the regulation in September to address “certain observed irregularities in the appraisal reports".
Foreign home sales — mainly to Iranians, Iraqis, Russians and Afghans — reached an all-time high of 6,630 last month, official data shows, as a sharp fall in the lira made Turkish property more attractive to foreign buyers.
Last year, net foreign investment in real estate was $5.7 billion, central bank data shows.
Mr Akbal expects construction companies to sell a record 50,000 homes to foreigners by the end of the year, although the new regulation might reduce that.
The sales have contributed to a broader rise in living costs for Turks that has weighed on Mr Erdogan's opinion polls. Housing-related inflation was more than 20 per cent last month, reflecting soaring rents, valuations and mortgage rates.
The government adopted the citizenship-for-homes scheme in 2017. A year later, it cut the minimum price to $250,000, from $1 million, to attract foreign buyers and help alleviate the currency crisis.
One property industry representative, who requested anonymity, said that before the regulation, properties worth only $150,000 could be reported to the land registry authority with a $250,000 price tag to secure citizenship for the buyer.
After the sale, the construction company would transfer $100,000 back to the buyer, the person said. Ibrahim Babacan, chairman of Babacan Holding, which works mostly with foreign buyers, said the new regulation was likely to lead to the cancellation of six of his 10 recent sales to foreigners.
“The customer buys the property with the aim of citizenship but when the appraiser reports a lower valuation, he cancels the contract,” he said. He added that appraisers and builders often use different measurements in valuations.
Mr Babacan said the new rules will cool sales in October but the lira depreciation will keep foreigners interested. “You can buy a property in Turkey at a fifth the price in Dubai,” he said.
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
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