Optimistic signs for US as shoppers spend more


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Shoppers in the US have spread some Christmas cheer as they shrugged off the threat of higher taxes next year.

Consumer spending probably rose last month, economists said before reports this week.

Household purchases increased 0.4 per cent last month after declining 0.2 per cent in October, according to the median estimate from 66 economists surveyed by Bloomberg before figures are released by the US commerce department due this Friday. Other reports may show home sales and demand for long-lasting goods climbed.

"The economy is holding in," said Jim O'Sullivan, the chief US economist for High Frequency Economics in New York. "For the household sector, the housing numbers have been quite good," he said.

"The labour market numbers are OK."

A jump in car sales last month is among the evidence that the world's largest economy is rebounding from the damage caused by superstorm Sandy. Improving property values and falling fuel costs are helping brace consumers against the more than US$600 billion (Dh2.2 trillion) in tax increases and government spending cuts that will take effect next month without action from Congress.

"There is a lot of nervousness about the fiscal cliff, so I think how that gets resolved will be important to what happens next," Mr O'Sullivan said.

Retail sales rose 0.3 per cent last month after a 0.3 per cent decrease in October, the commerce department reported. Ten of 13 major categories showed gains, led by a 1.4 per cent increase at car dealers, a 2.5 per cent jump at electronics outlets and a 0.9 per cent pickup at clothing stores.

Cars and light trucks sold last month at a 15.5 million annual rate, the fastest pace since February 2008 and up from 14.2 million in October when Sandy kept east coast shoppers away during dealers' busiest time of the month, data from Ward's Automotive Group show.

Limited Brands, the operator of the Victoria's Secret lingerie chain, reported comparable sales rose 5 per cent last month, topping projections for a 3.4 per cent gain. Limited Brands said Sandy, which swept ashore October 29, reduced its comparable-store sales growth by as much as 2 percentage points.

From July to September, household purchases contributed 1 percentage point to the economic expansion, which proceeded at a 2.7 per cent annual rate. The rate of economic growth for the past quarter will be revised up to 2.8 per cent when the commerce department issues updated figures on Thursday, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg survey.

An improving housing market is supporting the economy. Residential construction has contributed to growth for six consecutive quarters, the best showing since 2005, as builders begin to restore the inventory of new homes.

After three consecutive gains, homebuilding took a breather last month, according to economists surveyed. Housing starts fell to 873,000 annual rate after reaching a four-year high 894,000 rate in October, economists project a commerce department report to show on Wednesday. Building permits, a proxy for future construction, probably rose to an 875,000 annual pace.

Homebuilder shares have been benefiting as a result. The Standard & Poor's supercomposite homebuilding index has climbed 17.7 per cent so far in the second half of this year, compared with a 3.8 per cent gain in the broader 500 Index.

Healing in the market for new houses is complementing progress in existing properties, which have benefited from mortgage rates near record-lows and rising home values. Sales of previously-owned homes probably rose to a 4.9 million pace, a three-year high, economists forecast a report from the National Association of Realtors will show on Thursday.

Orders for durable goods, those meant to last at least three years, climbed 0.5 per cent last month, commerce department data will show on Friday, according to the Bloomberg survey median.

* Bloomberg News

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What is Folia?

Prince Khaled bin Alwaleed bin Talal's new plant-based menu will launch at Four Seasons hotels in Dubai this November. A desire to cater to people looking for clean, healthy meals beyond green salad is what inspired Prince Khaled and American celebrity chef Matthew Kenney to create Folia. The word means "from the leaves" in Latin, and the exclusive menu offers fine plant-based cuisine across Four Seasons properties in Los Angeles, Bahrain and, soon, Dubai.

Kenney specialises in vegan cuisine and is the founder of Plant Food Wine and 20 other restaurants worldwide. "I’ve always appreciated Matthew’s work," says the Saudi royal. "He has a singular culinary talent and his approach to plant-based dining is prescient and unrivalled. I was a fan of his long before we established our professional relationship."

Folia first launched at The Four Seasons Hotel Los Angeles at Beverly Hills in July 2018. It is available at the poolside Cabana Restaurant and for in-room dining across the property, as well as in its private event space. The food is vibrant and colourful, full of fresh dishes such as the hearts of palm ceviche with California fruit, vegetables and edible flowers; green hearb tacos filled with roasted squash and king oyster barbacoa; and a savoury coconut cream pie with macadamia crust.

In March 2019, the Folia menu reached Gulf shores, as it was introduced at the Four Seasons Hotel Bahrain Bay, where it is served at the Bay View Lounge. Next, on Tuesday, November 1 – also known as World Vegan Day – it will come to the UAE, to the Four Seasons Resort Dubai at Jumeirah Beach and the Four Seasons DIFC, both properties Prince Khaled has spent "considerable time at and love". 

There are also plans to take Folia to several more locations throughout the Middle East and Europe.

While health-conscious diners will be attracted to the concept, Prince Khaled is careful to stress Folia is "not meant for a specific subset of customers. It is meant for everyone who wants a culinary experience without the negative impact that eating out so often comes with."

Fire and Fury
By Michael Wolff,
Henry Holt