Oil falls to 12-month low

Oil was near US$83, depressed by expectations global demand growth will shrink if the credit crisis pushes the economy into recession.

LONDON // Oil was near US$83 a barrel after a fall to its lowest in 12 months today, depressed by expectations global demand growth will shrink if the credit crisis pushes the world economy into recession. Economic weakness spurred the International Energy Agency (IEA) to cut its forecasts for world oil demand growth for 2008 to its lowest rate since 1993. US light crude for November delivery was $3.59 down at $83.00 a barrel by 11.33 GMT. It touched a session low of $81.13, its lowest since October 2007.

Prices have dropped nearly 45 per cent from a peak of $147.27 in July. London Brent crude was down $3.47 a barrel at $79.19, below $80 for the first time in a year. The IEA, which advises 28 industrialised nations, cut its world demand growth forecast for 2008 to 0.5 per cent ? the lowest in percentage terms since 1993. The agency said the impact of global economic weakness was most acute in developed countries, while developing countries were showing "a degree of resilience".

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has called an emergency meeting in Vienna on November 18 to discuss the impact of the global financial crisis on the oil market. "Opec appears to be scrambling to put in another, firmer floor at $80," said Jonathan Kornafel, Asia director of US based options trader Hudson Capital Energy. "The market may still overshoot on the downside regardless of what Opec does, as financial flows continue to pour out of commodities," he added.

Commodities have tumbled along with global stock markets, which suffered heavy losses in Asia. The Nikkei index plunged nearly 10 per cent. European shares were down nearly seven per cent. Investors, who earlier this year piled into oil and other commodities as a hedge against inflation and the weak dollar, now want safety. "Commodity indices suffered heavy losses over the past week as market sentiment continue to focus on the potential demand-side weakness associated with the ongoing instability in the financial sector," Barclays Capital said in a note.

A key question is how far will prices fall. "We find oil prices would need to fall to $35 a barrel in order to bring prices in real terms back to their long run historical averages," Deutsche Bank said in a note. But it also said that, given the geographical location of marginal demand and supply, $60 a barrel was a more realistic characterisation of "cheap" oil. *Reuters