Not everyone at Australia's party is enjoying the music


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Australia seems to have been able to sustain an economic boom while the rest of the world continues to suffer, and even Australians cannot quite explain why.

If you could paint an image of the world looking at Australia from the outside, it would be like a host peering into a room at a never-ending party. Nobody else is invited, and from the inside the participants are thumbing their noses at passers-by.

Since the onset of the global financial crisis, Australia has managed to tame inflation and keep unemployment low while still enjoying solid economic growth.

Many economists argue you cannot have low inflation and high employment at the same time, at least not for any sustained period. High employment tends to drive wages up,and from there costs rise and the inflation bubble grows.

Australia has managed to keep both leading economic indicators looking good - the mining boom that has been the mainstay of the economic boom remains hungry for manpower, and at the same time, the ever-strengthening local currency has made Australia's addiction to imported goods less costly, keeping inflation at bay.

It is the sort of situation government economic strategists dream of, but it is in part illusory.

Look closer at the party and you will see that some people are doing very well, while others are suffering. The economy is often described as two-speed - one fast (the resources and utilities sector) and the other slow (all the rest).

Others believe the picture is more fractured: a multi-speed economy that is working at different rates and tempos.

The growth in employment, which last week pushed the country's jobless rate below 5 per cent, is concentrated in just a few industries. About two thirds of the 37,800 jobs created last month were in the resource-rich states of Western Australia and Queensland.

This explains why the Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry's latest survey of business confidence was largely negative in outlook. In it, 34.5 per cent of businesses say trading conditions are poor, while the number expecting conditions to deteriorate over the next three months has almost doubled since the start of the year to 18.7 per cent.

"The non-mining sectors, which still make up 90 per cent of the economy, are exposed to pressure from interest rates, the dollar, cautious household spending and rising oil prices," the chamber's economics director Greg Evans said.

The sluggish housing market had put even the booming mining state of Western Australia into a technical recession.

There is another reason for inflation below 2 per cent. With the central bank setting interest rates at 4.75 per cent (well above par in the western world), it has effectively stymied spending in the retail sector and dampened the hopes for growth in the building and housing industries.

As with the economy, growth in employment has been patchy. Jobs are being shed in manufacturing, building, tourism and finance, while the healthcare sector, with an ageing population to cater for, is enjoying a boom.

Some of the biggest winners over the past year have been the professions. Lawyers, accountants, information technology specialists and engineers have all enjoyed work related to the resources boom. Much hiring by mining companies has been in anticipation of investment that has yet to occur.

Helen Kevans, an economist for JPMorgan, believes the central bank will lift interest rates in August as labour shortages inevitably push up wages.

Meanwhile, the illusion of the never-ending party will probably continue for some time. While the biggest industries get the cream and full employment, the rest may have to suffer the price of their success.

A two-speed economy may give the impression that inflation and unemployment remain in control, but inevitably the fastest player will be forced to change down gears.

The National Archives, Abu Dhabi

Founded over 50 years ago, the National Archives collects valuable historical material relating to the UAE, and is the oldest and richest archive relating to the Arabian Gulf.

Much of the material can be viewed on line at the Arabian Gulf Digital Archive - https://www.agda.ae/en

PRO BASH

Thursday’s fixtures

6pm: Hyderabad Nawabs v Pakhtoon Warriors

10pm: Lahore Sikandars v Pakhtoon Blasters

Teams

Chennai Knights, Lahore Sikandars, Pakhtoon Blasters, Abu Dhabi Stars, Abu Dhabi Dragons, Pakhtoon Warriors and Hyderabad Nawabs.

Squad rules

All teams consist of 15-player squads that include those contracted in the diamond (3), platinum (2) and gold (2) categories, plus eight free to sign team members.

Tournament rules

The matches are of 25 over-a-side with an 8-over power play in which only two fielders allowed outside the 30-yard circle. Teams play in a single round robin league followed by the semi-finals and final. The league toppers will feature in the semi-final eliminator.

Milestones on the road to union

1970

October 26: Bahrain withdraws from a proposal to create a federation of nine with the seven Trucial States and Qatar. 

December: Ahmed Al Suwaidi visits New York to discuss potential UN membership.

1971

March 1:  Alex Douglas Hume, Conservative foreign secretary confirms that Britain will leave the Gulf and “strongly supports” the creation of a Union of Arab Emirates.

July 12: Historic meeting at which Sheikh Zayed and Sheikh Rashid make a binding agreement to create what will become the UAE.

July 18: It is announced that the UAE will be formed from six emirates, with a proposed constitution signed. RAK is not yet part of the agreement.

August 6:  The fifth anniversary of Sheikh Zayed becoming Ruler of Abu Dhabi, with official celebrations deferred until later in the year.

August 15: Bahrain becomes independent.

September 3: Qatar becomes independent.

November 23-25: Meeting with Sheikh Zayed and Sheikh Rashid and senior British officials to fix December 2 as date of creation of the UAE.

November 29:  At 5.30pm Iranian forces seize the Greater and Lesser Tunbs by force.

November 30: Despite  a power sharing agreement, Tehran takes full control of Abu Musa. 

November 31: UK officials visit all six participating Emirates to formally end the Trucial States treaties

December 2: 11am, Dubai. New Supreme Council formally elects Sheikh Zayed as President. Treaty of Friendship signed with the UK. 11.30am. Flag raising ceremony at Union House and Al Manhal Palace in Abu Dhabi witnessed by Sheikh Khalifa, then Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi.

December 6: Arab League formally admits the UAE. The first British Ambassador presents his credentials to Sheikh Zayed.

December 9: UAE joins the United Nations.

MATCH INFO

Manchester City 3
Danilo (16'), Bernardo Silva (34'), Fernandinho (72')

Brighton & Hove Albion 1
Ulloa (20')

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PREMIER LEAGUE FIXTURES

Saturday (UAE kick-off times)

Watford v Leicester City (3.30pm)

Brighton v Arsenal (6pm)

West Ham v Wolves (8.30pm)

Bournemouth v Crystal Palace (10.45pm)

Sunday

Newcastle United v Sheffield United (5pm)

Aston Villa v Chelsea (7.15pm)

Everton v Liverpool (10pm)

Monday

Manchester City v Burnley (11pm)

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