Air travel will probably be a lot different in 2025. A look outside the cabin window could reveal ground handlers loading liquid hydrogen into the plane for fuel. Under the wings, there may be "open-rotor" engines, uncovered, each with two saw-tooth propeller blades that rotate in opposite directions.
Even more drastic, the entire plane might be just one giant, V-shaped wing. In the cut-throat aerospace market, the world's largest aircraft makers such as Airbus and Boeing are working on revolutionary technologies to stay one step ahead. "We want to look long term and the question is 'what is the next step change, what is the game-changing technology that will take aviation forward'?" Ian Dawkins, the senior vice president of strategy and future programmes at Airbus, said at an Innovation Days presentation in the UK recently.
The European aircraft maker is one of the major players. Airbus smashed America's dominance in the global market in 1970 after developing innovations such as fly-by-wire technology for passenger planes. This replaced the system of pulleys, cranks, tension cables and hydraulic pipes used for flight control systems. But in the future, the joint reign of Boeing and Airbus could splinter. State-backed "national champions" including Mitsubishi of Japan, Comac of China, Sukhoi of Russia and Bombardier of Canada are entering the fray with new single-aisle aeroplanes seating about 150 passengers.
Each harbours hopes that these will yield opportunities for even larger planes in the future. "The market share between Boeing and Airbus has been very, very even," Mr Dawkins said. "But it is important to recognise the duopoly will not be there forever." As a result, Airbus is taking the first steps in what could be a 15-year journey for the next "game-changing" aircraft. The A30X concept model has been shrouded in secrecy. Little is known about what it will look like when commercially produced in 2025, but it will replace the A320 family of passenger jets.
As for Boeing, the giant based in the US is also keeping its 737 replacement under wraps as it looks at the technologies of the future. Aircraft are incredibly expensive to develop, costing more than US$12 billion (Dh44.07bn). So airframe makers want to be sure their new models will be in demand for 30 to 40 years. They also need customers and airlines need good reasons to ditch their existing planes and buy new ones. That means any new aircraft coming on to the market should deliver an improvement in fuel efficiency of up to 30 per cent.
New engine technology is also a driving force for efficiency and these improvements are still years away. "There are engines with a lot of potential which we are looking at but they are not available today," Mr Dawkins said. "A lot are paper engines." That includes the open-rotor engine, as well as turbofans with higher "bypass ratios" - the ratio between air flow taken by the turbofan that reaches the engine core and the flow that does not - which is a key component in fuel efficiency and speed.
It is all a far cry from the days when aircraft were made of wood before metal became the major material. Now composites rule, and Boeing and Airbus are pioneering new planes, the 787 and A350, respectively, that break records for use of the lightweight material. Composites affect everything from the weight, payload and range of an aircraft, as well as the straightness of the walls and the cabin humidity levels.
But Mr Dawkins suggested that while composites were well suited for long-haul aircraft, the short-haul workhorses that fly only a few hours at a time may require hardier materials that are less expensive to produce. So advanced metallics, including aluminium foam, are being studied further and Airbus is even considering setting up a manufacturing centre in the Middle East to produce these materials.
Other areas of interest are in aircraft design. In simple terms, planes generate lift due to the difference between the air flowing above the wing and below it. Manufacturers are now looking to improve the "laminar flow" of air over wings to improve their efficiency by reducing turbulence. "How do we use laminarity to improve performance on some parts of the aircraft?" Mr Dawkins asked. "It's worth a few per cent and in the next 20 years, if fuel prices are high, that few per cent is definitely worth chasing after."
In the US, Boeing and NASA are studying the blended wing body, which would eliminate the tube-shaped cabins that carry passengers. In blended wing concepts, the entire plane is one single V-shaped wing. In March, Boeing conducted successful flight tests of its X-48B prototype, a scaled down model with a 6.4-metre wingspan. But recent statements suggest blended wing planes might not be used for commercial aviation, with NASA highlighting its potential for "multi-role, long-range, high-capacity military transport".
Other advances may come from Mother Nature. Like Leonardo da Vinci, whose 15th century sketches of "flying machines" were modelled on the way birds fly, Airbus believes it has a few lessons to learn. Biomimicry, as it is called, is being taken seriously at Airbus, although when it might lead to substantive changes in the design of its aircraft is unknown, according to Norman Wood, the flow control capability manager at Airbus.
"The goal is to dynamically control an aircraft as dynamically as nature," he said at an event at an English manor, holding a peregrine falcon. "It is a real attractive option for us. There is more efficiency out there, if we choose to draw from it." Whatever happens, these are not flights of commercial fantasy, but the future of passenger airlines. @Email:igale@thenational.ae
