Boris Johnson hopes to have a UK general election on December 12. AFP
Boris Johnson hopes to have a UK general election on December 12. AFP
Boris Johnson hopes to have a UK general election on December 12. AFP
Boris Johnson hopes to have a UK general election on December 12. AFP

The UK pound will struggle to rally as Brexit saga rumbles on​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​


Tim Fox
  • English
  • Arabic

With Brexit stuck in parliamentary limbo — as the government awaits a decision on a deadline extension from Brussels and the opposition is too scared to pull the trigger on a general election — the pound’s rally has subsided.

Sterling has gained 5 per cent since the UK agreed a Brexit deal with the European Union on October 17, and signs the worst scenario — a no-deal Brexit next weekend — has been effectively removed as a risk are limiting the pound's downside. Attention in the coming week will be on how long an extension the EU will grant the UK government, which will help determine when Prime Minister Boris Johnson will be able to get enough support for a general election.

After the excitement of the last fortnight therefore, the potential rolling over of the Brexit departure date by three months will see some of the focus on the pound reduce in the coming weeks.

While his preference December 12, it seems unlikely the opposition will back this in a vote on Monday, and more likely the Brexit extension granted by the EU will be to January 31. This probably means an election after Christmas which will contain just enough risk of a Labour government that the pound will struggle to rally much further for now. After the excitement of the last fortnight therefore, the potential rolling over of the Brexit departure date by three months will see some of the focus on the pound reduce in the coming weeks, with moderate two-way risk returning.

Some of the sting also appears to be going out of the US-China trade talks, with reports that a postponement of tariffs set to be imposed on China in December is potentially in play. China has said that parts of the text for the first phase of a trade deal with the US are "basically completed" which is raising hopes that the two sides will be able to sign this first phase at a November 16-17 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Chile, at which Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping are scheduled to attend.

Both sides seem keen to play up the progress being made, probably for domestic political reasons in the US case as Mr Trump faces impeachment proceedings following a number of foreign policy blunders. China for its part has to contend with a sharply slowing economy with real gross domestic product growth in the third quarter posting just 6 per cent, the weakest expansion in 30 years. It is therefore probably in both parties’ interests to accentuate the positive for the time being, which should also help market sentiment to remain relatively favourable.

Into this relatively benign picture comes the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting this week, which carries the potential to either perpetuate the current relative calmness in markets or to disturb it. Market confidence about a third 25 basis point rate cut this year appears to be running high, with futures prices showing a 90.4 per cent chance of a move at the October 29-30 policy meeting, to a 1.50 per cent to 1.75 per cent band and 1.625 per cent midpoint.

Given that the Fed talked of its last two moves as mid-cycle adjustments, it will be harder to portray back-to-back cuts in the same way, especially as the external threats the Fed is primarily concerned about from trade and Brexit appear to be abating. Economic data, which took a dive at the beginning of this month, has also subsequently steadied a little. If they do indeed go ahead and meet market expectations with another cut, the important thing will be to communicate a readiness to pause this rate-cutting cycle at some point in the future. The policy statement is likely to reiterate that the Fed will continue to "act as appropriate" but it also needs to delineate the circumstances in which the Fed will resist market pressure for further cuts.

Easier than doing this might be to ignore market pressure this time around and hold rates steady, demonstrating that it will not be boxed into a corner. However, to do this would risk seeing markets tumble and the current positive sentiment unravel. The markets probably rightly think that the Fed is unlikely to stand in the way of a cut this week and risk renewed volatility, but the price of this may well be a harder day of reckoning at some point down the road.

Tim Fox is chief economist and head of research at Emirates NBD

Global state-owned investor ranking by size

1.

United States

2.

China

3.

UAE

4.

Japan

5

Norway

6.

Canada

7.

Singapore

8.

Australia

9.

Saudi Arabia

10.

South Korea

The specs

Engine: 2-litre 4-cylinder and 3.6-litre 6-cylinder

Power: 220 and 280 horsepower

Torque: 350 and 360Nm

Transmission: eight-speed automatic

Price: from Dh136,521 VAT and Dh166,464 VAT 

On sale: now

UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Labour dispute

The insured employee may still file an ILOE claim even if a labour dispute is ongoing post termination, but the insurer may suspend or reject payment, until the courts resolve the dispute, especially if the reason for termination is contested. The outcome of the labour court proceedings can directly affect eligibility.


- Abdullah Ishnaneh, Partner, BSA Law 

If you go

The flights 

Emirates flies from Dubai to Funchal via Lisbon, with a connecting flight with Air Portugal. Economy class returns cost from Dh3,845 return including taxes.

The trip

The WalkMe app can be downloaded from the usual sources. If you don’t fancy doing the trip yourself, then Explore  offers an eight-day levada trails tour from Dh3,050, not including flights.

The hotel

There isn’t another hotel anywhere in Madeira that matches the history and luxury of the Belmond Reid's Palace in Funchal. Doubles from Dh1,400 per night including taxes.

 

 

BRIEF SCORES

England 353 and 313-8 dec
(B Stokes 112, A Cook 88; M Morkel 3-70, K Rabada 3-85)  
(J Bairstow 63, T Westley 59, J Root 50; K Maharaj 3-50)
South Africa 175 and 252
(T Bavuma 52; T Roland-Jones 5-57, J Anderson 3-25)
(D Elgar 136; M Ali 4-45, T Roland-Jones 3-72)

Result: England won by 239 runs
England lead four-match series 2-1

RESULTS

2.15pm: Al Marwan Group Holding – Handicap (PA) Dh40,000 (Dirt) 1,200m
Winner: SS Jalmod, Antonio Fresu (jockey), Ibrahim Al Hadhrami (trainer)

2.45pm: Sharjah Equine Hospital – Maiden (PA) Dh40,000 (D) 1,000m
Winner: Ghallieah, Sebastien Martino, Jean-Claude Pecout

3.15pm: Al Marwan Group Holding – Handicap (PA) Dh40,000 (D) 1,700m
Winner: Inthar, Saif Al Balushi, Khalifa Al Neyadi

3.45pm: Al Ain Stud Emirates Breeders Trophy – Conditions (PA) Dh50,000 (D) 1,700m
Winner: MH Rahal, Richard Mullen, Elise Jeanne

4.25pm: Sheikh Mansour bin Zayed Al Nahyan Cup – Prestige Handicap (PA) Dh100,000 (D) 1,200m
Winner: JAP Aneed, Ray Dawson, Irfan Ellahi

4.45pm: Sharjah Equine Hospital – Handicap (TB) Dh40,000 (D) 1,200m
Winner: Edaraat, Antonio Fresu, Musabah Al Muhairi

Score

New Zealand 266 for 9 in 50 overs
Pakistan 219 all out in 47.2 overs 

New Zealand win by 47 runs

New Zealand lead three-match ODI series 1-0

Next match: Zayed Cricket Stadium, Abu Dhabi, Friday

India squads

T20: Rohit Sharma (c), Shikhar Dhawan, KL Rahul, Sanju Samson, Shreyas Iyer, Manish Pandey, Rishabh Pant, Washington Sundar, Krunal Pandya, Yuzvendra Chahal, Rahul Chahar, Deepak Chahar, Khaleel Ahmed, Shivam Dube, Shardul Thakur

Test: Virat Kohli (c), Rohit Sharma, Mayank Agarwal, Cheteshwar Pujara, Ajinkya Rahane, Hanuma Vihari, Wriddhiman Saha (wk), Ravindra Jadeja, Ravichandran Ashwin, Kuldeep Yadav, Mohammed Shami, Umesh Yadav, Ishant Sharma, Shubman Gill, Rishabh Pant

COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3ECompany%20name%3A%20Znap%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EStarted%3A%202017%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EFounder%3A%20Uday%20Rathod%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EBased%3A%20Dubai%2C%20UAE%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EIndustry%3A%20FinTech%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EFunding%20size%3A%20%241m%2B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EInvestors%3A%20Family%2C%20friends%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
FIXTURES

All times UAE ( 4 GMT)

Saturday
Fiorentina v Torino (8pm)
Hellas Verona v Roma (10.45pm)

Sunday
Parma v Napoli (2.30pm)
Genoa v Crotone (5pm)
Sassuolo v Cagliari (8pm)
Juventus v Sampdoria (10.45pm)

Monday
AC Milan v Bologna (10.45om)

Playing September 30

Benevento v Inter Milan (8pm)
Udinese v Spezia (8pm)
Lazio v Atalanta (10.45pm)

Key facilities
  • Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
  • Premier League-standard football pitch
  • 400m Olympic running track
  • NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
  • 600-seat auditorium
  • Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
  • An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
  • Specialist robotics and science laboratories
  • AR and VR-enabled learning centres
  • Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
We Weren’t Supposed to Survive But We Did

We weren’t supposed to survive but we did.      
We weren’t supposed to remember but we did.              
We weren’t supposed to write but we did.  
We weren’t supposed to fight but we did.              
We weren’t supposed to organise but we did.
We weren’t supposed to rap but we did.        
We weren’t supposed to find allies but we did.
We weren’t supposed to grow communities but we did.        
We weren’t supposed to return but WE ARE.
Amira Sakalla

Global Fungi Facts

• Scientists estimate there could be as many as 3 million fungal species globally
• Only about 160,000 have been officially described leaving around 90% undiscovered
• Fungi account for roughly 90% of Earth's unknown biodiversity
• Forest fungi help tackle climate change, absorbing up to 36% of global fossil fuel emissions annually and storing around 5 billion tonnes of carbon in the planet's topsoil

What can victims do?

Always use only regulated platforms

Stop all transactions and communication on suspicion

Save all evidence (screenshots, chat logs, transaction IDs)

Report to local authorities

Warn others to prevent further harm

Courtesy: Crystal Intelligence