Analysts say Boeing is a promising play for investors because of its impressive new family of aircraft, such as the Dreamliner. Jeff Topping / The National
Analysts say Boeing is a promising play for investors because of its impressive new family of aircraft, such as the Dreamliner. Jeff Topping / The National
Analysts say Boeing is a promising play for investors because of its impressive new family of aircraft, such as the Dreamliner. Jeff Topping / The National
Analysts say Boeing is a promising play for investors because of its impressive new family of aircraft, such as the Dreamliner. Jeff Topping / The National

In the news: Boost profits with the iPad and Dreamliners


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The stock market has astonished everybody with a bright and positive start to what was predicted to be 12 months of fear and negativity.

Many private investors are more bullish than they were just a few months ago and will be looking for ways to play the next leg of the recovery.

Nothing is certain, of course. With the eurozone crisis still playing out and western governments still wondering how they will ever repay their debts, this could be another false dawn.

And if the oil price continues to spiral, or Israel attacks Iran, the recovery could quickly go into reverse.

Still, the future is looking a little bit brighter - and investors should be thankful for that.

We asked five global share analysts to name their preferred stock tips for the future. Here is where they recommend putting your money.

Boeing

Investors should book a flight with aircraft manufacturer Boeing, says Dan Dowding, the chief executive (Middle East and Asia) at IFAs Killik & Co in Dubai. "Boeing is one of the world's leading aerospace and defence companies. It already has a full order book because its production capacity is sold out for the next five or six years.

"In that time, it should build an incredible 3,500 aircraft worth US$273 billion [Dh1 trillion] in total."

Boeing is divided into two operating divisions: its commercial and defence arms.

Boeing Commercial Airplanes is developing an impressive new family of aircraft, including the 737 Max and 787 Dreamliner, Mr Dowding says. "It has refreshed its product line and ramped up its production of commercial airplanes. Demand is likely to remain strong, even if passenger growth slows, because many airlines will still want to replace older aircraft with more fuel-efficient versions. China alone needs an estimated 4,000 planes over the next 20 years."

Boeing Defense, Space & Security has a stable, well-diversified product portfolio and development programmes in high-growth areas such as unmanned and cyber-warfare.

"US defence budget cuts are a threat, but the market has already priced in a significant drop in military spending. And if the US does cut military spending, its allies in the Middle East and Asia may increase theirs as a result," Mr Dowding says.

Boeing generates plenty of cash and has plenty of scope to boost its profit margins.

Apple

Size isn't everything, but sometimes it can't be ignored.

Apple is now the biggest company in the world and deservedly so, says Rob Burgeman, the divisional director at Brewin Dolphin, the investment manager. "Some believe Apple is so dominant that it can only go downhill, but we believe it has plenty of scope to climb even higher."

Apple has a dominant market position in the segment that it created itself, the iPad, and this looks likely to be reinforced with the recent launch of the iPad 3, Mr Burgeman says.

"It has a relatively small share of the smartphone market at 25 per cent, but this is growing fast following the latest iPhone launch. And it has just 10 per cent of the PC market, so again, that allows plenty of scope for growth."

Apple is also rumoured to be launching a television set at the end of this year. "Who would bet against it revolutionising the TV marketplace in the same way that it has revolutionised other markets?"

The company has a ridiculously healthy balance sheet and has just started paying dividends. "Investors in Apple can now get a dividend yield of around 1.8 per cent a year."

Despite strong recent share-price growth, its shares still look relatively cheap, Mr Burgeman says.

A common way of working out whether a company is good value is to divide the share price by its company earnings to produce its price to earnings (P/E) ratio. A P/E of 15 is thought to represent fair value. "Apple is trading at a relatively cheap P/E ratio of 13.8. That looks very tempting to me."

Vodafone

Jeremy Batstone-Carr, at stockbrokers Charles Stanley & Co, is sceptical about the recent stock market fight back. "The market has been driven by central bankers loosening liquidity, but I don't think it can run much further. Western countries have massive debts and rapidly ageing populations, and will struggle to grow their way out of debt. Given all the problems, nobody should expect a stock market bonanza."

Mr Batstone-Carr prefers to invest in defensive stocks and plumps for Vodafone, the global mobile phone giant. "In what could be a low-growth future, you should look for companies generating lots of cash and paying attractive dividends. Vodafone is one of them. It is currently on a forecast dividend yield of 7.3 per cent a year. That's far better than you could get from any savings account."

Vodafone's share price has dipped slightly in recent months, so don't expect to see runaway capital growth. "Vodafone has enjoyed strong sales growth in emerging markets, notably India, but it is a cautious stock for these uncertain times."

Mr Batstone-Carr says not everybody shares his pessimistic outlook. "If you are more bullish and expect the global economy to continue recovering, you might invest in mining stock BHP Billiton. If China keeps growing, demand for commodities and national resources will remain high and BHP Billiton should reap the rewards. The stock also gives you exposure to the rising oil price, as do the oil majors such as BP, Exxon and Royal Dutch Shell."

Mr Batstone-Carr urges investors to play it safe right now. "There's an old stock market adage that you should 'sell in May and go away'. This could be a good year to do just that."

Pearson

Pearson is best known as the owner of London's Financial Times and Penguin, the book publisher. But its real value lies elsewhere, says James Griffin, the portfolio manager at Fidelity MoneyBuilder Growth, the investment fund. "Pearson is a global leader in the move to digital online education, which is being embraced in the US and, increasingly, emerging markets. It describes itself as 'the world's leading learning company' across 70 different countries and we believe it will be the dominant, long-term winner in this sector. Its education arm generates two thirds of the company's revenue."

Mr Griffin also recommends WPP, the global marketing, advertising and communications company. Although listed in the UK, it has a highly successful franchise in fast-growing emerging markets. "This has cushioned the impact of the slowdown since the financial crisis and now the company boasts exceptional long-term growth prospects."

PPR

In these cash-strapped times, a little luxury goes a long way, says Peter Kirkman, from JP Morgan Asset Management. "French multinational PPR has a global portfolio of luxury, sports and lifestyle brands that are distributed in 120 countries worldwide. It owns the Stella McCartney, Gucci and Puma brands and its recent earnings results beat analyst expectations, driven by luxury revenues."

In 2011, PPR saw its revenues rise 11 per cent and its recurring net income rise by an impressive 26 per cent. Investors should benefit from continued growth in emerging markets, particularly China, where consumers are hungry for established western brand names, Mr Kirkman says.

If PPR is a play on the increasingly confident emerging-market consumer, fashion retailer Guess? Inc should benefit from any recovery in consumer confidence in the West.

In the final quarter of 2011, its revenues increased by 3 per cent to a record $776 million. European sales fell slightly, but American sales rose 5 per cent and Asian revenues soared 27 per cent. "Guess? Inc is one of our highest conviction stock choices and should move higher as housing and consumer confidence data in the US improves further," Mr Kirkman says.

Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”