As China continues to build up its gold reserves, which currently stand at 1,054 tonnes, the metal's price may continue to rise.
As China continues to build up its gold reserves, which currently stand at 1,054 tonnes, the metal's price may continue to rise.

'Fear factor' caps rush for shining asset



On a recent business meeting in Monaco, Gary Dugan, the chief investment officer at Emirates NBD (ENBD), spoke to a room full of affluent investors about his predictions for the great yellow metal - gold.

With the world economy gloomy and uncertain, he was bullish on this precious commodity, to say the least. In fact, he firmly believes that it will reach US$1,500 an ounce (Dh5,509) in the next three to six months, and $1,600 in the next year.

By the end of his speech, Mr Dugan says one investor scratched his head, rose from his chair and immediately made arrangements to purchase 40 kilograms of gold. But rather than keep it in the bank or a vault on the Cayman Islands, he had it shipped right to his front door.

According to Mr Dugan, he didn't trust anyone with his sparkling nest egg.

"The fear factor is likely to stay with us for some time," he says. "Gold is the currency of today because the world doesn't necessarily believe in the dollar anymore. People don't believe in the euro, and in the East, the currencies are too underdeveloped on an international scale.

"This is not a golden week. It's not a golden couple of months. This is indeed a golden era."

This bold declaration was the overriding message at a conference in Dubai last week, when ENBD formally launched its Gold Business.

The initiative, spurred on by the metal's remarkable rise to $1,386.23 over the past year, features the region's first gold certificate, which allows retail and business customers to buy physical gold over the counter at any of the bank's 110 branches. Clients must undergo a credit assessment before buying and, after the purchase, the bullion is stored and kept secure on location at ENBD. The gold is available in denominations of 0.5kg and the bank says it will accommodate up to 50kg of gold purchases daily. Customers can redeem their investment at any time, with a maximum maturity date of 60 months.

While the scheme might be new to the UAE, the concept is well established in other places around the world. The Perth Mint, for example, first founded as a branch of Britain's Royal Mint in 1899 in Western Australia, offers a variety of gold-related products, including gold bars and coins, which it keeps secure at its facility.

The World Gold Council, created to promote the precious metal, launched SPDR Gold Shares in November 2004. This exchange-traded fund, known by the tracker symbol GLD, is now the world's fastest-growing major invesmtment fund, according to the US research company Lipper Inc.

The fund is also the largest private owner of bullion, acquiring about $30 million worth of gold each day, and is currently worth an estimated $56.7 billion.

But according to ENBD, the Middle East region is poised to take the lead in this thriving trade.

"Over 25 per cent of the annual global gold production is transacted through UAE markets and we have developed the Gold Business to serve the needs of our existing and prospective customers," says Asif Lakhany, the head of international and new ventures at ENBD.

"Over time, we will look to extend this expertise across other precious metals and commodities."

With a "competitive" profit margin for the bank, Mr Lakhany adds, clients who buy gold with the financial institution will spend between 2 per cent and 5 per cent less than on the open market. He says the gold certificate programme could serve as a valuable test drive for an even greater foray into the commodities market. Depending on the success of the Gold Business, ENBD says it is considering a similar scheme for silver and oil.

Mr Dugan says the trend towards investment in gold and other commodities is a reflection of a volatile world economy. In other words, people want tangible assets for their money.

"I think we're definitely moving in that direction," he says. "The average investor doesn't have confidence in a piece of paper for a stock or bond."

Of course, at the same time, Mr Dugan doesn't advise investors to sell the farm in favour of gold bars. In an ideal portfolio, it should comprise only about 20 per cent, serving as a reliable and effective hedge against eventualities.

Mr Dugan says there are many other compelling factors that continue to drive up the price of gold. The rise of emerging economies, such as India and China, is also fuelling a sharp demand for commodities.

Referring to a chart showing the Top 10 holders of gold in the world, based on data from the IMF and World Gold Council, he notes that the US has 8,134 tonnes of the precious metal in reserve, while Germany comes in at a distant second with 3,403 tonnes. But the statistics that particularly interest Mr Dugan are those concerning China. This sleeping giant currently holds just 1,054 tonnes of gold - a number, he says, that is sure to explode in the coming years.

China's surge in gold could drive the price of the yellow metal to dizzying heights, he says.

But as more countries, banks and everyday consumers jump on the golden bandwagon, is a crash just around the corner? That's the question that concerns most investors these days.

Peter Cooper, the author of Dubai Sabbatical:The Road to $5,000 Gold and Opportunity Dubai, and founder of Arabianmoney.net, continues to be bullish on gold. However, he warns of short-term volatility in the near future.

"I would be very cautious about putting too much money into gold at this stage, but over time, it's definitely a good investment," he says.

Mr Cooper points to the recent rise in silver as a possible turn in the tide, which often moves in tandem with its more coveted cousin.

"When you get considerable spikes, they tend to burn out eventually," he says.

"It's like a rocket going up, but all of a sudden it falls back down when it's out of fuel, or there are no more buyers."

He says gold will continue its meteoric rise as we enter the New Year, with a hiccup in price in February or March. He believes that the yellow metal could dip back to about $1,000 sometime next year, although it probably won't stay there for long.

Mr Dugan acknowledges that there could be a correction in the price of gold. But in his mind, the only way is up.

"There is always a risk," he says. "But I cannot believe that the general population will think everything is fine. If you look at the world, you can't reverse what is happening. There could be a correction, but a crash I just don't see happening."

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Name: Kumulus Water
 
Started: 2021
 
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
 
Based: Tunisia 
 
Sector: Water technology 
 
Number of staff: 22 
 
Investment raised: $4 million 
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe

Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010

Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille

Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm

Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year

Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”

Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners

TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013 

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Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
 
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
 
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
 
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