Freshly-made pennies sit in a bin at the US Mint in Denver on August 15, 2007.
Freshly-made pennies sit in a bin at the US Mint in Denver on August 15, 2007.
Freshly-made pennies sit in a bin at the US Mint in Denver on August 15, 2007.
Freshly-made pennies sit in a bin at the US Mint in Denver on August 15, 2007.

Trump’s move to kill off the US penny coin to have minimal economic impact, say experts


Kyle Fitzgerald
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The US penny has become the latest target of President Donald Trump's efforts to cut waste in the federal government, although the economic impact is probably negligible.

Mr Trump on Sunday directed the Treasury Department to stop minting the one-cent coin, because of rising costs. While he never raised the idea of an end to minting the penny before the announcement, Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency (Doge) took aim at the coin last month.

The US President, Mr Musk and Doge have moved at breakneck speed since Mr Trump's inauguration to reduce federal spending by cutting US foreign aid, cancelling diversity, equity and inclusion programmes, slashing federal contracts in government agencies and ending leases for federal buildings.

The penny has been a frequent target for removal from circulation, but had survived every campaign threatening its existence.

Robert Whaples, a professor at Wake Forest University, said the penny's time as an efficient coin to exchange goods and services has gone.

“The penny's not up to the task any more,” Prof Whaples said.

While Congress has the authority to make changes to coinage, he said the President could instruct the Treasury Department to produce more or fewer pennies. But it is unclear if he can demand the department to stop minting pennies altogether.

Mr Trump centred his argument for getting rid of the penny on the rising costs of producing it. The US Mint – a bureau within the Treasury Department – reported losing $85.3 million on the nearly 3.2 billion pennies it produced in the 2024 fiscal year. The current unit cost for the one-cent coin is 3.69 cents, the 19th consecutive fiscal year it remained above face value.

Prof Whaples described a “vicious cycle” in which shops pay out more pennies than they get, which leads to more pennies being made – but because they are worth so little they are usually ignored. Even if pennies cost nothing to make, he said the cost of people's time outweighs the cost of the one-cent coin.

President Donald Trump directed the Treasury Department to stop minting new pennies. Getty Images / AFP
President Donald Trump directed the Treasury Department to stop minting new pennies. Getty Images / AFP

Economic impact

Were the US to eliminate the penny, it would follow Canada and Australia in ditching one-cent coins. Brazil, Estonia, Ireland and the Netherlands have also stopped producing them.

When Canada announced its decision in 2012, it began requiring cash transactions to be rounded to the nearest five cents. The impact was minimal.

“Half the time you get beat by being overcharged two cents or three cents, and sometimes you make up two or three cents. So on average, there's no net effect,” said Jay Zagorsky, a professor at the Questrom School of Business at Boston University.

US consumers are also becoming increasingly less reliant on cash. Only 16 per cent of payments made in 2023 were done with cash, according to the Federal Reserve banks. It was also the first year most consumers used a form of payment other than cash on transactions of $25 or less.

“I think it's marginalised the penny even more,” Prof Whaples said.

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Will the pound fall to parity with the dollar?

The idea of pound parity now seems less far-fetched as the risk grows that Britain may split away from the European Union without a deal.

Rupert Harrison, a fund manager at BlackRock, sees the risk of it falling to trade level with the dollar on a no-deal Brexit. The view echoes Morgan Stanley’s recent forecast that the currency can plunge toward $1 (Dh3.67) on such an outcome. That isn’t the majority view yet – a Bloomberg survey this month estimated the pound will slide to $1.10 should the UK exit the bloc without an agreement.

New Prime Minister Boris Johnson has repeatedly said that Britain will leave the EU on the October 31 deadline with or without an agreement, fuelling concern the nation is headed for a disorderly departure and fanning pessimism toward the pound. Sterling has fallen more than 7 per cent in the past three months, the worst performance among major developed-market currencies.

“The pound is at a much lower level now but I still think a no-deal exit would lead to significant volatility and we could be testing parity on a really bad outcome,” said Mr Harrison, who manages more than $10 billion in assets at BlackRock. “We will see this game of chicken continue through August and that’s likely negative for sterling,” he said about the deadlocked Brexit talks.

The pound fell 0.8 per cent to $1.2033 on Friday, its weakest closing level since the 1980s, after a report on the second quarter showed the UK economy shrank for the first time in six years. The data means it is likely the Bank of England will cut interest rates, according to Mizuho Bank.

The BOE said in November that the currency could fall even below $1 in an analysis on possible worst-case Brexit scenarios. Options-based calculations showed around a 6.4 per cent chance of pound-dollar parity in the next one year, markedly higher than 0.2 per cent in early March when prospects of a no-deal outcome were seemingly off the table.

Bloomberg

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Updated: February 11, 2025, 10:31 AM