The US dollar's weakness continued in January, with the US Dollar Index — a measure of the value of the greenback against a weighted basket of major currencies — sliding to a seven-month low after peaking at a 20-year high last September.
The dollar's entire second-half rise in 2022 has now been erased, as markets position themselves in expectation of US Federal Reserve action and its direction on interest rate policies.
Since my last column, we had the US inflation report for December, which showed another run of cooling inflation readings.
Overall, year-on-year inflation came in at 6.5 per cent, down from 7.1 per cent in November, while core prices — excluding food and energy — came in at 5.7 per cent compared with November's reading of 6 per cent.
This compounded weakness in the greenback, as market participants increased bets that the Fed will back off from its current path of increasing interest rates.
During its last meeting, the Fed indicated that rates would exceed 5 per cent in 2023.
However, futures pricing now indicates that this level could top out between 4.75 per cent and 5 per cent.
The theme of divergence between markets and policy will continue in the lead up to the next Fed rate decision meeting, which concludes on February 1.
Watch: US Federal Reserve chief warns of 'pain' in reducing inflation
While key Fed members have reiterated their commitment to the current path, upcoming US jobs data will be central to deciphering their views.
The central bank has long been cautious towards a hotter-than-expected US labour market and its implications on inflation.
Last week’s jobless claims — a weekly measure of the number of individuals filing for unemployment insurance — came in at 190,000, well below market expectations of 215,000.
While this still shows a rather robust US labour market, it is important to note that the data was released before Google's announcement on Friday that it would lay off 12,000 employees globally.
If we get a continued run of slower-than-expected hiring numbers, coupled with slowing wage growth, this will continue to stoke the divergence debate and weigh on the dollar's prospects.
Across the pond, the current bearish move in the dollar has benefitted the euro, which finds itself north of 1.09 levels for the first time since April last year.
Up more than 10 per cent in the past three months, the EUR/USD move continues to be exacerbated by fundamentals.
The optimism surrounding China’s move to end its zero-Covid policy continues to drive positive sentiment in Europe.
Coupled with falling energy prices and a rather hawkish European Central Bank, we continue to remain bullish on EUR/USD prospects in the short and medium term.
The US interest rate differential play also has been a factor in the euro's rally.
In theory, these should all combine to stoke further upside in the euro.
In the current rally, I see a further push towards 1.1150 levels in the common currency, while it needs to close above 1.0850 this week to confirm this level as a short-term support level.
Meanwhile, gold bulls have been rewarded by the weakening dollar.
The precious metal continues its four-week march since the turn of the new year, a period in which it has gained 11 per cent
Gaurav Kashyap,
risk manager at Equiti Securities Currencies Brokers
The precious metal continues its four-week march since the turn of the new year, a period in which it has gained 11 per cent.
I expect another conclusive test in the channel between $1,970 and $2,000, with any further upsides highly unlikely.
On the economic calendar this week is the release of data for US gross domestic product, due out on Thursday at 5.30pm UAE time. Fourth-quarter GDP is expected to come in at 2.6 per cent.
Also due out on Thursday is the weekly US jobless data, with new claims expected to come in at 205,000.
The personal consumption expenditures price index — the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation — will be released on Friday.
Core PCE year on year for December is expected to be 4.4 per cent, below November's 4.7 per cent print. Expect a weaker print to keep the dollar anaemic through to the beginning of February.
Gaurav Kashyap is risk manager at Equiti Securities Currencies Brokers. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect the views of Equiti Securities Currencies Brokers
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Email sent to Uber team from chief executive Dara Khosrowshahi
From: Dara
To: Team@
Date: March 25, 2019 at 11:45pm PT
Subj: Accelerating in the Middle East
Five years ago, Uber launched in the Middle East. It was the start of an incredible journey, with millions of riders and drivers finding new ways to move and work in a dynamic region that’s become so important to Uber. Now Pakistan is one of our fastest-growing markets in the world, women are driving with Uber across Saudi Arabia, and we chose Cairo to launch our first Uber Bus product late last year.
Today we are taking the next step in this journey—well, it’s more like a leap, and a big one: in a few minutes, we’ll announce that we’ve agreed to acquire Careem. Importantly, we intend to operate Careem independently, under the leadership of co-founder and current CEO Mudassir Sheikha. I’ve gotten to know both co-founders, Mudassir and Magnus Olsson, and what they have built is truly extraordinary. They are first-class entrepreneurs who share our platform vision and, like us, have launched a wide range of products—from digital payments to food delivery—to serve consumers.
I expect many of you will ask how we arrived at this structure, meaning allowing Careem to maintain an independent brand and operate separately. After careful consideration, we decided that this framework has the advantage of letting us build new products and try new ideas across not one, but two, strong brands, with strong operators within each. Over time, by integrating parts of our networks, we can operate more efficiently, achieve even lower wait times, expand new products like high-capacity vehicles and payments, and quicken the already remarkable pace of innovation in the region.
This acquisition is subject to regulatory approval in various countries, which we don’t expect before Q1 2020. Until then, nothing changes. And since both companies will continue to largely operate separately after the acquisition, very little will change in either teams’ day-to-day operations post-close. Today’s news is a testament to the incredible business our team has worked so hard to build.
It’s a great day for the Middle East, for the region’s thriving tech sector, for Careem, and for Uber.
Uber on,
Dara
Milestones on the road to union
1970
October 26: Bahrain withdraws from a proposal to create a federation of nine with the seven Trucial States and Qatar.
December: Ahmed Al Suwaidi visits New York to discuss potential UN membership.
1971
March 1: Alex Douglas Hume, Conservative foreign secretary confirms that Britain will leave the Gulf and “strongly supports” the creation of a Union of Arab Emirates.
July 12: Historic meeting at which Sheikh Zayed and Sheikh Rashid make a binding agreement to create what will become the UAE.
July 18: It is announced that the UAE will be formed from six emirates, with a proposed constitution signed. RAK is not yet part of the agreement.
August 6: The fifth anniversary of Sheikh Zayed becoming Ruler of Abu Dhabi, with official celebrations deferred until later in the year.
August 15: Bahrain becomes independent.
September 3: Qatar becomes independent.
November 23-25: Meeting with Sheikh Zayed and Sheikh Rashid and senior British officials to fix December 2 as date of creation of the UAE.
November 29: At 5.30pm Iranian forces seize the Greater and Lesser Tunbs by force.
November 30: Despite a power sharing agreement, Tehran takes full control of Abu Musa.
November 31: UK officials visit all six participating Emirates to formally end the Trucial States treaties
December 2: 11am, Dubai. New Supreme Council formally elects Sheikh Zayed as President. Treaty of Friendship signed with the UK. 11.30am. Flag raising ceremony at Union House and Al Manhal Palace in Abu Dhabi witnessed by Sheikh Khalifa, then Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi.
December 6: Arab League formally admits the UAE. The first British Ambassador presents his credentials to Sheikh Zayed.
December 9: UAE joins the United Nations.
Frankenstein in Baghdad
Ahmed Saadawi
Penguin Press
The specs
Common to all models unless otherwise stated
Engine: 4-cylinder 2-litre T-GDi
0-100kph: 5.3 seconds (Elantra); 5.5 seconds (Kona); 6.1 seconds (Veloster)
Power: 276hp
Torque: 392Nm
Transmission: 6-Speed Manual/ 8-Speed Dual Clutch FWD
Price: TBC
Conflict, drought, famine
Estimates of the number of deaths caused by the famine range from 400,000 to 1 million, according to a document prepared for the UK House of Lords in 2024.
It has been claimed that the policies of the Ethiopian government, which took control after deposing Emperor Haile Selassie in a military-led revolution in 1974, contributed to the scale of the famine.
Dr Miriam Bradley, senior lecturer in humanitarian studies at the University of Manchester, has argued that, by the early 1980s, “several government policies combined to cause, rather than prevent, a famine which lasted from 1983 to 1985. Mengistu’s government imposed Stalinist-model agricultural policies involving forced collectivisation and villagisation [relocation of communities into planned villages].
The West became aware of the catastrophe through a series of BBC News reports by journalist Michael Buerk in October 1984 describing a “biblical famine” and containing graphic images of thousands of people, including children, facing starvation.
Band Aid
Bob Geldof, singer with the Irish rock group The Boomtown Rats, formed Band Aid in response to the horrific images shown in the news broadcasts.
With Midge Ure of the band Ultravox, he wrote the hit charity single Do They Know it’s Christmas in December 1984, featuring a string of high-profile musicians.
Following the single’s success, the idea to stage a rock concert evolved.
Live Aid was a series of simultaneous concerts that took place at Wembley Stadium in London, John F Kennedy Stadium in Philadelphia, the US, and at various other venues across the world.
The combined event was broadcast to an estimated worldwide audience of 1.5 billion.
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
The specs
- Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
- Power: 640hp
- Torque: 760nm
- On sale: 2026
- Price: Not announced yet
Friday’s fixture
6.15pm: Al Wahda v Hatta
6.15pm: Al Dhafra v Ajman
9pm: Al Wasl v Baniyas
9pm: Fujairah v Sharjah
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More from Neighbourhood Watch:
In-demand jobs and monthly salaries
- Technology expert in robotics and automation: Dh20,000 to Dh40,000
- Energy engineer: Dh25,000 to Dh30,000
- Production engineer: Dh30,000 to Dh40,000
- Data-driven supply chain management professional: Dh30,000 to Dh50,000
- HR leader: Dh40,000 to Dh60,000
- Engineering leader: Dh30,000 to Dh55,000
- Project manager: Dh55,000 to Dh65,000
- Senior reservoir engineer: Dh40,000 to Dh55,000
- Senior drilling engineer: Dh38,000 to Dh46,000
- Senior process engineer: Dh28,000 to Dh38,000
- Senior maintenance engineer: Dh22,000 to Dh34,000
- Field engineer: Dh6,500 to Dh7,500
- Field supervisor: Dh9,000 to Dh12,000
- Field operator: Dh5,000 to Dh7,000
Dubai World Cup factbox
Most wins by a trainer: Godolphin’s Saeed bin Suroor(9)
Most wins by a jockey: Jerry Bailey(4)
Most wins by an owner: Godolphin(9)
Most wins by a horse: Godolphin’s Thunder Snow(2)
THREE
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