Mobile broadband will dial in best opportunity

Middle East telecoms companies pin their hopes on data services, despite gloomy report by Fitch on industry revenues in 2012.

Maha Muraish, the online channels and portals director at Etisalat, demonstrates the ePlus mobile application.

Middle East telecommunications companies are pinning their hopes on demand for broadband and mobile internet, amid gloomy forecasts for the industry as a whole.

Operators have rushed to launch so-called "4G" mobile broadband, despite few smartphones being compatible with the next-generation networks.

Local telecoms companies have also launched services on the back of demand for mobile internet.

Etisalat last year announced a new mobile application called ePlus, expected to be one of the first legal uses of voice over internet protocol services in the UAE, where services such as Skype are banned.

The operator has also launched a mobile-wallet service, with which users can tap their phones on sensors to pay for goods in shops and cafes.

Other telecoms companies have also made attempts to diversify the services they offer, amid a declining average revenue per user (arpu) rate across the industry.

Etisalat's rival du said last week it had launched a service called Music Store, which allows users to download five songs a day for a charge of Dh1.

With a library of just 10,000 songs, du's offering is unlikely to have rival music-download services quaking in their boots.

Nevertheless, services such as ePlus and Music Store indicate an intense attempt by Middle East mobile companies to diversify their revenues. Despite this, analysts question whether the growth of fixed and mobile-data subscriptions, along with connected revenue-generating services, is enough to revive the fortunes of the industry.

Fitch Ratings predicts revenues in the Middle East telecoms sector will this year be level with, or lower than, last year.

The agency said the high penetration of mobile phones, along with increased competition, meant the industry was in for a gloomy year.

"Fitch still sees the possibility of some revenue contraction in 2012, as data revenue and the new driver of growth, mobile broadband, fail to offset the fundamental decline in voice revenue," it said.

"Mobile data traffic growth will continue to grow at double-digit rates in 2012 but this will only partially offset some of the competitive pressure on arpus and margins," it added.

Fitch acknowledged telecoms companies were pursuing additional revenues from media and mobile commerce - but said this was not likely to bring an immediate cash boost.

"Some prominent mobile operators would also like to rely on the convergence of the telecoms, media and financial services, but Fitch believes this is merely a long-term prospect," it said.

One telecoms analyst based in the Middle East, who did not wish to be named, said he agreed with the Fitch report.

"Voice is already saturated. The only growth area you see in the Middle East is mobile broadband," he said. "In developed markets, telecoms spending will grow in line with, or slightly below, GDP per capita."

However, other commentators believe fixed-line and mobile broadband could boost the fortunes of Middle East telecoms companies.

"If you look at the conventional part of telephony - voice and mobile - the outlook of flat to negative is probably right. But the big curveball is data," said Ibrahim Masood, a senior investment officer for asset management at Mashreq.

Mr Masood disputed Fitch's forecast that revenues from data would fail to compensate for declining voice revenues.

"The data side will more than make up for it," he said.

"There's still room for more price rationalisation to drive usage, especially on the data side. I'm quite bullish on the prospects for data."

Services launched on the back of mobile-data networks - such as music downloads and e-commerce - could also give a boost to regional telecoms companies, Mr Masood said. "It's not just content provision. The other big area is mobile commerce. And we're just scratching the surface."

While commentators are split on whether data subscriptions will be enough to stem declining revenues in the telecoms business, most agree the industry will become more competitive.

According to Fitch, initiatives such as mobile-number portability, which allows users to change mobile provider but keep their phone numbers, will help to boost competition in the UAE.

"Certain markets such as Kuwait, Qatar and Bahrain remain highly competitive while Saudi Arabia and the UAE may become even more competitive due to the maturity of these markets," Fitch said.