Masters of universe track the planetary shift West to East

Western investment bankers appear wedded to the advice of "Go east, old boy" - at least according to new evidence from London specialist recruitment consultants, writes Frank Kane.

At the peak of the global financial crisis in 2008 and 2009, there was an exodus of bankers from London's Square Mile. Sang Tan / AP Photo

Western investment bankers appear wedded to the advice of "Go east, old boy" - at least according to new evidence from London specialist recruitment consultants.

Astbury Marsden, an outfit that specialises in finding jobs for potential "masters of the universe", recently published the results of a survey of clients.

Participants were asked: "Where do you expect financial services recruitment to expand fastest over the next 12 months?" The results were illuminating.

Far fewer of the movers and shakers of the financial world believed London (11 per cent) or New York (only 6 per cent), the former bastions of the investment banking universe, would show growth.

The Middle East and Asia are where the action will be, according to the survey. About 38 per cent thought Singapore would be the focus of activity. The UAE was rated high by 17 per cent of respondents; Shanghai (18 per cent) and Hong Kong (11 per cent) had their fans too.

This is different from the knee-jerk reaction of western bankers during the bad years of 2008 to 2009, when underemployed financial executives were given the options of "Dubai, Mumbai, Shanghai or bye-bye".

Then, the exodus from London's Square Mile or New York's Wall Street was seen as a palliative to problems in home markets, a haven in which to shelter from the financial storm.

Now, banking executives are actively looking for careers in the East, because that is where they think the business is drifting. This is not a short-term fix, it is a long-term trend.

Who can blame them? Not only is all the business in the East but investment bankers, in the old school of bonus-grabbing, bubbly-quaffing spendthrifts, are rapidly becoming an endangered species in the West.

Their traditional hunting grounds for easy fees - mergers and acquisitions, initial public offerings (IPOs) and rights issues - are rapidly drying up, with levels of corporate activity in London and New York at all-time lows.

At the same time, the authorities and some of the banks themselves are taking an increasingly stern view of past excesses.

Deutsche Bank took the battle against the bonus culture a significant step further this week by announcing it would expect new recruits to give up stock options (a common form of bonus payment) awarded by previous employers. At many other banks, too, such as HSBC, Royal Bank of Scotland and Switzerland's UBS, the dreaded word "clawback" is being heard with increasing regularity.

Meanwhile, regulatory probes continue by western watchdogs into a whole gamut of alleged abuses, from money laundering and terrorism funding to drugs financing and interest-rate fixing. The West really is no place for a chap these days if he wants to stay "clean".

In contrast, the action is coming thick and fast in the East. Singapore has obvious attractions in terms of quality of life but also in proximity to increasingly lively markets. Nearby Kuala Lumpur was the setting for two of the biggest IPOs anywhere in the world this year with US$5.5 billion (Dh20.2bn) raised, putting it above Hong Kong in the IPO rankings.

A whole new branch to the investment banking sector is being created.

The fee-earning beneficiaries of the Kuala Lumpur deals were not just the usual branch offices of the big western banks - indigenous newcomers figured highly as well.

And, whatever the reduced prospects for the Chinese economy, it has not stopped the steady flow of export-funded deals coming out of the country. Acquisitions by Chinese companies in the United States is near an all-time high.

The new rule for investment bankers is: bonus cuts and redundancy in the West; fee bonanzas and recruitment in the East.

For bankers in the Arabian Gulf region, it could be a sign that the four-year lull in corporate activity since the financial crisis is coming to an end.

The headhunters appear to be back in recruitment mode in the region.