After two days of sharp losses during the early part of the week, the pound actually rallied slightly when it became clear that a leadership challenge to prime minister Theresa May was underway in the United Kingdom. This can probably be put down to the forex market's wish for greater certainty about the direction of the UK government, over Brexit itself, but also if only to have a prime minister who inspires greater confidence.
The market will probably be inclined to give almost whoever replaces Theresa May the benefit of the doubt, at least for a short amount of time. This is because Mrs May is so tarnished and associated with the stumbling Brexit negotiations of the last two years that she is viewed as almost incapable of offering original ideas on the issue. Hers is the agreement that satisfies hardly anybody, and yet she declares it is the only option available. Whether correct or not, the markets and probably the British electorate want to think that something more inventive might be tried.
Mrs May’s departure will not be mourned by the pound, and arguably it could rally some more if her replacement is prepared to look at the Brexit possibilities with more imagination. This may not necessarily require that a new deal with the EU is produced, as this looks almost impossible, but it does require a better articulation of the alternatives especially if the May deal is eventually defeated.
Clearly the pound would benefit from the thought that a different leader might be able to persuade parliament to back what is on offer. Briefly this might be its first response to a new leader, but at some point reality is likely to dawn that this is a virtual impossibility.
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Volatility in the pound leaves UAE expats cautious about remitting to the UK
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Mrs May’s departure might open the way for a second referendum, which she has adamantly opposed. However, this is also an option that could provide some grounds for a sterling recovery. Obviously, the sustainability of that recovery over the medium term would crucially depend on what a second referendum would ask, and ultimately what the public decides. Even if the date of Brexit is just delayed, the markets may take some heart from the possibility that alternative arrangements might be made in the additional time provided, especially if a no-deal Brexit is the eventual outcome.
Mrs May’s government appears to have made little effort to prepare for a no-deal Brexit, and has actually fanned fears about it through the scenario testing done at the Treasury, aided and abetted by the Bank of England. In the end it may still be that Brexit happens without a deal, and while this move into the unknown would invariably create some instability and confusion, causing the pound to lose ground, a more positive narrative about the opportunities arising from it might serve to limit the downside.
If another leader can emerge that can articulate a greater sense of purpose and self-confidence about the possibilities that Brexit offers - through the promotion of open markets, competitive taxes and regulations - such a message could provide a counterbalance to the negative forces pushing ‘project fear’. This may not prevent the pound from making further losses, but it may restrict them and cause any renewed decline to be perceived as a buying opportunity.
Put another way, a reprieve for Theresa May would probably see the pound’s limited reprieve run out of steam quite fast. It would reinforce the likelihood of the UK exiting from the EU not only without a deal, but without a constructive voice about what happens next and about what ‘crashing out’ might entail.
With Theresa May at the helm, the forex market has been progressing fairly consistently in recent months towards a renewed date with the lows seen after the referendum in 2016, below 1.20 to the dollar. Should she manage to hold onto power, the markets may accelerate the process of sterling reaching this level. Another leader on the other hand might give them a pause for thought.
Tim Fox is chief economist and head of research at Emirates NBD
QUARTER-FINAL
Wales 20-19 France
Wales: T: Wainwright, Moriarty. Cons: Biggar (2) Pens: Biggar 2
France: T: Vahaamahina, Ollivon, Vakatawa Cons: Ntamack (2)
Other key dates
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Finals draw: December 2
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Finals (including semi-finals and third-placed game): June 5–9, 2019
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Euro 2020 play-off draw: November 22, 2019
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Euro 2020 play-offs: March 26–31, 2020
Everybody%20Loves%20Touda
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Nabil%20Ayouch%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Nisrin%20Erradi%2C%20Joud%20Chamihy%2C%20Jalila%20Talemsi%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E4%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Blackpink World Tour [Born Pink] In Cinemas
Starring: Rose, Jisoo, Jennie, Lisa
Directors: Min Geun, Oh Yoon-Dong
Rating: 3/5
McLaren GT specs
Engine: 4-litre twin-turbo V8
Transmission: seven-speed
Power: 620bhp
Torque: 630Nm
Price: Dh875,000
On sale: now
ESSENTIALS
The flights
Emirates flies from Dubai to Phnom Penh via Yangon from Dh2,700 return including taxes. Cambodia Bayon Airlines and Cambodia Angkor Air offer return flights from Phnom Penh to Siem Reap from Dh250 return including taxes. The flight takes about 45 minutes.
The hotels
Rooms at the Raffles Le Royal in Phnom Penh cost from $225 (Dh826) per night including taxes. Rooms at the Grand Hotel d'Angkor cost from $261 (Dh960) per night including taxes.
The tours
A cyclo architecture tour of Phnom Penh costs from $20 (Dh75) per person for about three hours, with Khmer Architecture Tours. Tailor-made tours of all of Cambodia, or sites like Angkor alone, can be arranged by About Asia Travel. Emirates Holidays also offers packages.
LIGUE 1 FIXTURES
All times UAE ( 4 GMT)
Friday
Nice v Angers (9pm)
Lille v Monaco (10.45pm)
Saturday
Montpellier v Paris Saint-Germain (7pm)
Bordeaux v Guingamp (10pm)
Caen v Amiens (10pm)
Lyon v Dijon (10pm)
Metz v Troyes (10pm)
Sunday
Saint-Etienne v Rennes (5pm)
Strasbourg v Nantes (7pm)
Marseille v Toulouse (11pm)
The figures behind the event
1) More than 300 in-house cleaning crew
2) 165 staff assigned to sanitise public areas throughout the show
3) 1,000 social distancing stickers
4) 809 hand sanitiser dispensers placed throughout the venue
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
Where can I submit a sample?
Volunteers can now submit DNA samples at a number of centres across Abu Dhabi. The programme is open to all ages.
Collection centres in Abu Dhabi include:
- Abu Dhabi National Exhibition Centre (ADNEC)
- Biogenix Labs in Masdar City
- Al Towayya in Al Ain
- NMC Royal Hospital in Khalifa City
- Bareen International Hospital
- NMC Specialty Hospital, Al Ain
- NMC Royal Medical Centre - Abu Dhabi
- NMC Royal Women’s Hospital.
Pakistan Super League
Previous winners
2016 Islamabad United
2017 Peshawar Zalmi
2018 Islamabad United
2019 Quetta Gladiators
Most runs Kamran Akmal – 1,286
Most wickets Wahab Riaz –65
More from Rashmee Roshan Lall
Leap of Faith
Michael J Mazarr
Public Affairs
Dh67
THE SIXTH SENSE
Starring: Bruce Willis, Toni Collette, Hayley Joel Osment
Director: M. Night Shyamalan
Rating: 5/5
The fake news generation
288,000 – the number of posts reported as hate speech that were deleted by Facebook globally each month in May and June this year
11% – the number of Americans who said they trusted the news they read on Snapchat as of June 2017, according to Statista. Over a quarter stated that they ‘rarely trusted’ the news they read on social media in general
31% - the number of young people in the US aged between 10 and 18 who said they had shared a news story online in the last six months that they later found out was wrong or inaccurate
63% - percentage of Arab nationals who said they get their news from social media every single day.
Ferrari 12Cilindri specs
Engine: naturally aspirated 6.5-liter V12
Power: 819hp
Torque: 678Nm at 7,250rpm
Price: From Dh1,700,000
Available: Now
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
If you go
Flying
Despite the extreme distance, flying to Fairbanks is relatively simple, requiring just one transfer in Seattle, which can be reached directly from Dubai with Emirates for Dh6,800 return.
Touring
Gondwana Ecotours’ seven-day Polar Bear Adventure starts in Fairbanks in central Alaska before visiting Kaktovik and Utqiarvik on the North Slope. Polar bear viewing is highly likely in Kaktovik, with up to five two-hour boat tours included. Prices start from Dh11,500 per person, with all local flights, meals and accommodation included; gondwanaecotours.com
EA Sports FC 25
Developer: EA Vancouver, EA Romania
Publisher: EA Sports
Consoles: Nintendo Switch, PlayStation 4&5, Xbox One and Xbox Series X/S
Rating: 3.5/5
Ziina users can donate to relief efforts in Beirut
Ziina users will be able to use the app to help relief efforts in Beirut, which has been left reeling after an August blast caused an estimated $15 billion in damage and left thousands homeless. Ziina has partnered with the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees to raise money for the Lebanese capital, co-founder Faisal Toukan says. “As of October 1, the UNHCR has the first certified badge on Ziina and is automatically part of user's top friends' list during this campaign. Users can now donate any amount to the Beirut relief with two clicks. The money raised will go towards rebuilding houses for the families that were impacted by the explosion.”
OPINIONS ON PALESTINE & ISRAEL