Search for inflation proves elusive for central banks



The global economy looks to be on a constructive trajectory, rebounding in 2017 after bottoming in 2016. 
The growth is broad-based and well synchronised between developed and emerging markets. Although central banks have begun considering their exit plans from ultra-easy monetary policy, inflation has yet to emerge and is keeping central banks in check. A stronger and more persistent trend of rising inflation will be needed for a decisive leg up in rates.
Inflation has fallen globally with the pace of price rises "below target" in almost all of the 26 inflation-targeting economies. Barring the UK, where a weaker currency has translated into inflation running at above 2.5 per cent, inflation in G10 countries has remained below 2 per cent for most of this decade. This is despite solid GDP growth and improving employment levels. In the US, the market under most scrutiny, headline inflation fell to 1.6 per cent in June from 1.9 per cent a month earlier and even higher at the start of 2017. In the euro zone and Japan, the trend is broadly similar.
The inflation picture in the key emerging markets is slightly different. In countries such as Brazil and Russia, inflation has been declining as prolonged recession in these economies comes to an end. Central banks in both countries are likely to continue their monetary easing cycles. China is still growing at a fairly robust pace with core inflation fluctuating between 1 per cent and 2 per cent over the last two years. Significant overcapacity in industry suggests, however, that a sustained uplift in prices will be a slow process. In contrast, inflation has moved higher in economies that recently experienced currency weakness, like Turkey and Mexico, but this will likely be temporary and fade once higher import prices have filtered through to the economy and the currencies stabilise.
Getting inflation right is critical for central bank policymakers. Too high and excessive price levels limit consumption, but when inflation is too low companies will be hesitant to invest and consumers may delay purchases, also threatening consumption on the downside. Textbook wisdom links inflation to changes in employment levels, financial system liquidity and supply and demand for goods. However, none of these dynamics provide a good answer to explain the current lack of inflation in the developed world.
Unemployment levels in the US and UK are currently at two and four-decade lows respectively, but wage growth has consistently remained at or below 2.5 per cent. Part of the reason is the influx of cheap labour, either by importing labour onshore or exporting jobs offshore (and hence lower cost production) from markets such as China and India that keeps employees' bargaining power minimal despite tight labour conditions. Moreover, over the past decade there have been profound labour-market reforms. Widespread unionisation of the private sector has largely dissipated, along with collective wage bargaining that many blamed for helping to fuel wage and price spirals in the earlier decades. They have been replaced with minimum-wage legislation and an increasingly casual labour force – the "gig economy" – that is much more flexible to changes in the wider economy.
Nor is a shortage of liquidity to blame for current low inflation levels. The US monetary base rose at an annual rate of 9 per cent from 1985-95, then slowing to 6 per cent in 1995 to 2005. Consumer price inflation (CPI) during this time was 3.5 per cent between 1985 to 1995 and then slowed to 2.5 per cent in the decade to 2005. From 2005 to 2015 the monetary base soared at an annual rate of 17.8 per cent (from US$1 trillion in 2007 to $4tn in 2015), but CPI increased at an annual rate of just 1.9 per cent.
That leaves supply and demand dynamics as the culprit behind low inflation figures. We believe some key reasons for low current inflation may be related to excess capacity in labour where the participation rate in the US has come down considerably over the past two decades, from close to 70 per cent in the 1990s to less than 63 per cent as of June 2017. The major downturn in commodity prices in the past few years — most evident in oil markets but also in metal and agricultural prices — has also been a result of large increases in supply outpacing demand. At an even higher level, GDP growth globally has been slowing, from double-digit to single-digit growth in markets like China and from mid-single digit to low single digit in the developed world.
There have also been dynamics specific to the most recent financial crisis that have sapped away momentum from price growth. The US Federal Reserve started to offer interest on reserve deposits which meant commercial banks could use the cash to invest in reserve deposits instead of risk lending to corporates. At the same time, regulation became more stringent, leading to banks becoming more cautious in lending.
If the true cause of low inflation expectations is weak global growth; a glut of workers from emerging markets and excess capacity driving down corporate pricing power in many industries then central bankers could be facing a serious challenge to their credibility in the months ahead, as both realised inflation and inflation expectations could take even longer to return to target.
Anita Yadav is the head of fixed income research at Emirates NBD

Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
 
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
 
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
 
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
 
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia
THE LIGHT

Director: Tom Tykwer

Starring: Tala Al Deen, Nicolette Krebitz, Lars Eidinger

Rating: 3/5

UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Previous men's records
  • 2:01:39: Eliud Kipchoge (KEN) on 16/9/19 in Berlin
  • 2:02:57: Dennis Kimetto (KEN) on 28/09/2014 in Berlin
  • 2:03:23: Wilson Kipsang (KEN) on 29/09/2013 in Berlin
  • 2:03:38: Patrick Makau (KEN) on 25/09/2011 in Berlin
  • 2:03:59: Haile Gebreselassie (ETH) on 28/09/2008 in Berlin
  • 2:04:26: Haile Gebreselassie (ETH) on 30/09/2007 in Berlin
  • 2:04:55: Paul Tergat (KEN) on 28/09/2003 in Berlin
  • 2:05:38: Khalid Khannouchi (USA) 14/04/2002 in London
  • 2:05:42: Khalid Khannouchi (USA) 24/10/1999 in Chicago
  • 2:06:05: Ronaldo da Costa (BRA) 20/09/1998 in Berlin
How to protect yourself when air quality drops

Install an air filter in your home.

Close your windows and turn on the AC.

Shower or bath after being outside.

Wear a face mask.

Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.

If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.

Fight card

1. Bantamweight: Victor Nunes (BRA) v Siyovush Gulmamadov (TJK)

2. Featherweight: Hussein Salim (IRQ) v Shakhriyor Juraev (UZB)

3. Catchweight 80kg: Rashed Dawood (UAE) v Khamza Yamadaev (RUS)

4. Lightweight: Ho Taek-oh (KOR) v Ronald Girones (CUB)

5. Lightweight: Arthur Zaynukov (RUS) v Damien Lapilus (FRA)

6. Bantamweight: Vinicius de Oliveira (BRA) v Furkatbek Yokubov (RUS)

7. Featherweight: Movlid Khaybulaev (RUS) v Zaka Fatullazade (AZE)

8. Flyweight: Shannon Ross (TUR) v Donovon Freelow (USA)

9. Lightweight: Mohammad Yahya (UAE) v Dan Collins (GBR)

10. Catchweight 73kg: Islam Mamedov (RUS) v Martun Mezhulmyan (ARM)

11. Bantamweight World title: Jaures Dea (CAM) v Xavier Alaoui (MAR)

12. Flyweight World title: Manon Fiorot (FRA) v Gabriela Campo (ARG)

COMPANY PROFILE
Name: HyperSpace
 
Started: 2020
 
Founders: Alexander Heller, Rama Allen and Desi Gonzalez
 
Based: Dubai, UAE
 
Sector: Entertainment 
 
Number of staff: 210 
 
Investment raised: $75 million from investors including Galaxy Interactive, Riyadh Season, Sega Ventures and Apis Venture Partners
Guide to intelligent investing
Investing success often hinges on discipline and perspective. As markets fluctuate, remember these guiding principles:
  • Stay invested: Time in the market, not timing the market, is critical to long-term gains.
  • Rational thinking: Breathe and avoid emotional decision-making; let logic and planning guide your actions.
  • Strategic patience: Understand why you’re investing and allow time for your strategies to unfold.
 
 
Essentials

The flights
Etihad and Emirates fly direct from the UAE to Delhi from about Dh950 return including taxes.
The hotels
Double rooms at Tijara Fort-Palace cost from 6,670 rupees (Dh377), including breakfast.
Doubles at Fort Bishangarh cost from 29,030 rupees (Dh1,641), including breakfast. Doubles at Narendra Bhawan cost from 15,360 rupees (Dh869). Doubles at Chanoud Garh cost from 19,840 rupees (Dh1,122), full board. Doubles at Fort Begu cost from 10,000 rupees (Dh565), including breakfast.
The tours 
Amar Grover travelled with Wild Frontiers. A tailor-made, nine-day itinerary via New Delhi, with one night in Tijara and two nights in each of the remaining properties, including car/driver, costs from £1,445 (Dh6,968) per person.

German intelligence warnings
  • 2002: "Hezbollah supporters feared becoming a target of security services because of the effects of [9/11] ... discussions on Hezbollah policy moved from mosques into smaller circles in private homes." Supporters in Germany: 800
  • 2013: "Financial and logistical support from Germany for Hezbollah in Lebanon supports the armed struggle against Israel ... Hezbollah supporters in Germany hold back from actions that would gain publicity." Supporters in Germany: 950
  • 2023: "It must be reckoned with that Hezbollah will continue to plan terrorist actions outside the Middle East against Israel or Israeli interests." Supporters in Germany: 1,250 

Source: Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution

COMPANY PROFILE

Name: Lamsa

Founder: Badr Ward

Launched: 2014

Employees: 60

Based: Abu Dhabi

Sector: EdTech

Funding to date: $15 million

The specs: 2018 Chevrolet Trailblazer

Price, base / as tested Dh99,000 / Dh132,000

Engine 3.6L V6

Transmission: Six-speed automatic

Power 275hp @ 6,000rpm

Torque 350Nm @ 3,700rpm

Fuel economy combined 12.2L / 100km

Electric scooters: some rules to remember
  • Riders must be 14-years-old or over
  • Wear a protective helmet
  • Park the electric scooter in designated parking lots (if any)
  • Do not leave electric scooter in locations that obstruct traffic or pedestrians
  • Solo riders only, no passengers allowed
  • Do not drive outside designated lanes
The specs

Engine: Direct injection 4-cylinder 1.4-litre
Power: 150hp
Torque: 250Nm
Price: From Dh139,000
On sale: Now

Paatal Lok season two

Directors: Avinash Arun, Prosit Roy 

Stars: Jaideep Ahlawat, Ishwak Singh, Lc Sekhose, Merenla Imsong

Rating: 4.5/5

If you go
Where to stay: Courtyard by Marriott Titusville Kennedy Space Centre has unparalleled views of the Indian River. Alligators can be spotted from hotel room balconies, as can several rocket launch sites. The hotel also boasts cool space-themed decor.

When to go: Florida is best experienced during the winter months, from November to May, before the humidity kicks in.

How to get there: Emirates currently flies from Dubai to Orlando five times a week.
THE BIO:

Favourite holiday destination: Thailand. I go every year and I’m obsessed with the fitness camps there.

Favourite book: Born to Run by Christopher McDougall. It’s an amazing story about barefoot running.

Favourite film: A League of their Own. I used to love watching it in my granny’s house when I was seven.

Personal motto: Believe it and you can achieve it.

Director: Laxman Utekar

Cast: Vicky Kaushal, Akshaye Khanna, Diana Penty, Vineet Kumar Singh, Rashmika Mandanna

Rating: 1/5

Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

Other workplace saving schemes
  • The UAE government announced a retirement savings plan for private and free zone sector employees in 2023.
  • Dubai’s savings retirement scheme for foreign employees working in the emirate’s government and public sector came into effect in 2022.
  • National Bonds unveiled a Golden Pension Scheme in 2022 to help private-sector foreign employees with their financial planning.
  • In April 2021, Hayah Insurance unveiled a workplace savings plan to help UAE employees save for their retirement.
  • Lunate, an Abu Dhabi-based investment manager, has launched a fund that will allow UAE private companies to offer employees investment returns on end-of-service benefits.
Stage result

1. Jasper Philipsen (Bel) Alpecin-Fenix 4:42:34

2. Sam Bennett (Irl) Bora-Hansgrohe

3. Elia Viviani (Ita) Ineos Grenadiers

4. Dylan Groenewegen (Ned) BikeExchange-Jayco

5. Emils Liepins (Lat) Trek-Segafredo

6. Arnaud Demare (Fra) Groupama-FDJ

7. Max Kanter (Ger) Movistar Team

8. Olav Kooij (Ned) Jumbo-Visma

9. Tom Devriendt (Bel) Intermarché-Wanty-Gobert Matériaux

10. Pascal Ackermann (Ger) UAE Team Emirate