Regulated short selling on the UAE's main markets must be introduced to shield investors from volatility and to attract more institutional money, says the chief executive of NASDAQ Dubai.
"The UAE should and can do short selling. It enables you to make money when the market is going down, and it gives all types of investor the ability to buy," said Jeff Singer, the head of Dubai's second bourse.
Short-sellers borrow and sell an asset, hoping to profit by buying it back later for less. NASDAQ Dubai already allows this but the Dubai Financial Market (DFM), which is a much more active index, and the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange (ADX) do not. The Emirates Securities and Commodities Authority (SCA), the regulator that oversees the DFM and ADX, has prohibited the practice and has spoken out regularly against it because it can drive down the value of equities.
But this year the regulator changed its tune and said the implementation of short selling would help upgrade the UAE markets' status to "emerging".
Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) classifies six of the Gulf's exchanges as "frontier", excluding Saudi Arabia's Tadawul All-Share Index, which is not categorised. Institutional investors often steer clear of frontier markets because they are considered too volatile for a long-term investment to flourish. Industry experts say the acceptance of short selling (shorting) in the market will help reclassify the UAE.
Shorting a stock is also seen as effective when markets are volatile and the opportunities to profit on day-to-day price movements are increased.
"[Shorting] allows for better price discovery and pricing of securities. When volatility is high the premiums are high and it creates a more active options market," said Walid Shihabi, the chief executive of Shuaa Securities. He said a move towards derivatives, or a security that is dependent on the movement of one or more underlying assets, would add depth to the market because it would encourage foreign institutions to participate and use the security as a hedge against a bet. "It has always been a priority from SCA to target those participants," he said. Nick Wright, the head of institutional brokerage at Mubasher, an online trading engine, said derivatives were an important part of having a well-functioning capital market, but the dominance of retail investors who tend to speculate on the movement of a stock had put off the regulator in the past.
"The biggest fear for the regulator is … these markets are dominated by a very large amount of retail speculators. [The regulator] fears it'll give them even more capability to leverage. The regulator hasn't come around to how they're going to protect these investors, I don't think anyone has a master plan for this," Mr Wright said. The UAE has struggled to revive trading volumes after a collapse in property prices in Dubai, the region's financial bellwether.
Volumes and liquidity are down by more than half compared with last year as retail investors flee and less formal derivatives trading, such as over-the-counter (OTC) transactions that allow financial instruments to be traded between two parties, has arisen.
"We should take everything OTC and put it on the exchange," said Mr Singer, who estimated the number of contracts passing between traders on the global OTC market to be in the trillions. Brokers carry out multiple private transactions between each other but this creates a monopoly with the broker rather than the exchange because a broker can demand higher prices.
Moving OTCs to an exchange offers a competitive environment that is well regulated and transparent, Mr Singer said. Sharia-compliant financial instruments could also contribute to growth in the markets.
"If enough need exists there's enough brain power to structure Sharia-compliant derivatives, [but] that will take some time," said Mohammed el Kuwaiz, the chief executive and co-founder of Derayah, an investment firm based in Saudi Arabia.
Under a Sharia-compliant method such as an arbun contract, a purchaser makes a deposit, which forms part of the purchase price, to buy particular assets at a later date. Should the sale not proceed, the seller keeps the deposit. It avoids the speculative nature of standard derivatives.
But the "main barrier" to introducing even Sharia-compliant products is the local regulator, Mr el Kuwaiz said.
"[The SCA is] hesitant to open doors to this as we're retail investors, and putting it in the hands of individuals would make it more volatile. They are more prone to greed and fear," he said.
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Results
2pm: Al Sahel Contracting Company – Maiden (PA) Dh50,000 (Dirt) 1,200m; Winner: AF Mutakafel, Tadhg O’Shea (jockey), Ernst Oertel (trainer)
2.30pm: Dubai Real Estate Centre – Maiden (TB) Dh60,000 (D) 1,200m; Winner: El Baareq, Antonio Fresu, Rashed Bouresly
3pm: Shadwell – Rated Conditions (TB) Dh100,000 (D) 1,950m; Winner: Lost Eden, Andrea Atzeni, Doug Watson
3.30pm: Keeneland – Handicap (TB) Dh84,000 (D) 1,000m; Winner: Alkaraama, Dane O’Neill, Musabah Al Muhairi
4pm: Keeneland – Handicap (TB) Dh76,000 (D) 1,800m; Winner: Lady Snazz, Saif Al Balushi, Bhupat Seemar
4.30pm: Hive – Conditions (TB) Dh100,000 (D) 1,600m; Winner: Down On Da Bayou, Royston Ffrench, Salem bin Ghadayer
5pm: Dubai Real Estate Centre – (TB) Handicap Dh64,000 (D) 1,600m; Winner: Lahmoom, Royston Ffrench, Salem bin Ghadayer
A State of Passion
Directors: Carol Mansour and Muna Khalidi
Stars: Dr Ghassan Abu-Sittah
Rating: 4/5
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million