Low confidence keeps Arab Spring markets subdued



Financial markets in most countries touched by last year's Arab Spring disappointed in the first quarter by staying broadly flat or ending down, as investors held off amid signs of continued volatility, and private-sector involvement in the economies remained weak.

Bahrain's All Share Index nudged into the green to end the quarter up 0.8 per cent. In Morocco, the main MASI index is down 0.7 per cent. The Amman Stock Exchange is 0.4 per cent up for the year to date.

"The low points [of the first quarter] are the markets that have stagnated, including Morocco, Tunisia, Jordan and Bahrain," says Graham Stock, the chief strategist at Insparo Asset Management, which focuses on frontier markets.

Outside the stellar performance seen in Egypt, which is up 37.6 per cent this year, the only other indexes to show decisive positive movement in post-Arab Spring countries are in Kuwait, up 3.5 per cent, and in Lebanon, where the main Blom Index has gained 3.4 per cent.

"We remain more cautious of North African markets as we believe their weaker domestic finances and closer links to Europe render them vulnerable if the present optimistic mood among global investors reverses," says Bassel Khatoun, a portfolio manager with Franklin Templeton Investments Middle East.

Egypt's rally has relied on a few key stocks, Mr Stock says. "The rally has been relatively narrow, with Orascom Telecom and Mobinil up around 130 per cent year to date on name-specific developments, and only three other stocks beating the index at all."

Libya reopened its stock exchange last month after it closed for a year during the country's civil. The move is raising hopes that private companies will start to replace the stranglehold of government entities on the country's index, and drive job creation and growth.

Steen Jacobsen, the chief economist at Saxo Bank,says the recovery of financial markets in Arab Spring countries lies in their ability to restart their private sectors. "There needs to be a smooth handover from public to private capital investment," he says. "Too many Mena markets are almost entirely dependent on state business and interaction to create growth. This needs to be reduced."

In Tunisia, where the unrest that would eventually spread across the Arab world began at the end of 2010, the Tunindex ended the quarter up 1.7 per cent. Egypt and Tunisia are net importers of oil, and with the price of Brent crude up to about $126 a barrel, analysts say energy costs are a key risk to the countries' stability.

"The first quarter has been more challenging for the oil-importing countries of North Africa and the Levant," Mr Khatoun says. "However, after a difficult 2011, many are now beginning to show signs of economic recovery and progress towards political stability."

One of the biggest risers on the Tunindex so far this year is Société Magasin Général. On the Tunisian stock exchange, shares in the food and furniture distributor jumped from 136 Tunisian dinars to 177.96 dinars in the first three months of the year. The company has recently signed a partnership agreement with the French group Auchan to start work on rapid movement into Libya.

Arab Monitor calls the Tunisian market "one to watch" over the next 12 months as Libyan liquidity flows increase. "We see regional cooperation as the priority emphasis and potential for the Maghreb," its researchers said in a note.

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Install an air filter in your home.

Close your windows and turn on the AC.

Shower or bath after being outside.

Wear a face mask.

Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.

If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.

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Name: Almnssa
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Founder: Areej Selmi
Based: Gaza
Sectors: Internet, e-commerce
Investments: Grants/private funding
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Based: Dubai
Founders: Alhaan Ahmed, Alyina Ahmed and Maximo Tettamanzi
Sector: Sustainability
Total funding: Self funded
Number of employees: 4
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Hometown: Cairo

Age: 37

Favourite TV series: The Handmaid’s Tale, Black Mirror

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Favourite book: Designing Brand Identity, Fifth Edition

Know your camel milk:
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Super Bowl LIII schedule

What Super Bowl LIII

Who is playing New England Patriots v Los Angeles Rams

Where Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, United States

When Sunday (start time is 3.30am on Monday UAE time)

 

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If you go
Where to stay: Courtyard by Marriott Titusville Kennedy Space Centre has unparalleled views of the Indian River. Alligators can be spotted from hotel room balconies, as can several rocket launch sites. The hotel also boasts cool space-themed decor.

When to go: Florida is best experienced during the winter months, from November to May, before the humidity kicks in.

How to get there: Emirates currently flies from Dubai to Orlando five times a week.
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Indoor cricket in a nutshell

Indoor cricket in a nutshell
Indoor Cricket World Cup - Sept 16-20, Insportz, Dubai

16 Indoor cricket matches are 16 overs per side
8 There are eight players per team
9 There have been nine Indoor Cricket World Cups for men. Australia have won every one.
5 Five runs are deducted from the score when a wickets falls
4 Batsmen bat in pairs, facing four overs per partnership

Scoring In indoor cricket, runs are scored by way of both physical and bonus runs. Physical runs are scored by both batsmen completing a run from one crease to the other. Bonus runs are scored when the ball hits a net in different zones, but only when at least one physical run is score.

Zones

A Front net, behind the striker and wicketkeeper: 0 runs
B Side nets, between the striker and halfway down the pitch: 1 run
C Side nets between halfway and the bowlers end: 2 runs
D Back net: 4 runs on the bounce, 6 runs on the full

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RESULTS

Bantamweight title:
Vinicius de Oliveira (BRA) bt Xavier Alaoui (MAR)
(KO round 2)
Catchweight 68kg:
Sean Soriano (USA) bt Noad Lahat (ISR)
(TKO round 1)
Middleweight:
Denis Tiuliulin (RUS) bt Juscelino Ferreira (BRA)
(TKO round 1)
Lightweight:
Anas Siraj Mounir (MAR) bt Joachim Tollefsen (DEN)
(Unanimous decision)
Catchweight 68kg:
Austin Arnett (USA) bt Daniel Vega (MEX)
(TKO round 3)
Lightweight:
Carrington Banks (USA) bt Marcio Andrade (BRA)
(Unanimous decision)
Catchweight 58kg:
Corinne Laframboise (CAN) bt Malin Hermansson (SWE)
(Submission round 2)
Bantamweight:
Jalal Al Daaja (CAN) bt Juares Dea (CMR)
(Split decision)
Middleweight:
Mohamad Osseili (LEB) bt Ivan Slynko (UKR)
(TKO round 1)
Featherweight:
Tarun Grigoryan (ARM) bt Islam Makhamadjanov (UZB)
(Unanimous decision)
Catchweight 54kg:
Mariagiovanna Vai (ITA) bt Daniella Shutov (ISR)
(Submission round 1)
Middleweight:
Joan Arastey (ESP) bt Omran Chaaban (LEB)
(Unanimous decision)
Welterweight:
Bruno Carvalho (POR) bt Souhil Tahiri (ALG)
(TKO)

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Rainbow

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(Kemosabe)

The specs
Engine: 77.4kW all-wheel-drive dual motor
Power: 320bhp
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Transmission: Single-speed automatic
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Coffee: black death or elixir of life?

It is among the greatest health debates of our time; splashed across newspapers with contradicting headlines - is coffee good for you or not?

Depending on what you read, it is either a cancer-causing, sleep-depriving, stomach ulcer-inducing black death or the secret to long life, cutting the chance of stroke, diabetes and cancer.

The latest research - a study of 8,412 people across the UK who each underwent an MRI heart scan - is intended to put to bed (caffeine allowing) conflicting reports of the pros and cons of consumption.

The study, funded by the British Heart Foundation, contradicted previous findings that it stiffens arteries, putting pressure on the heart and increasing the likelihood of a heart attack or stroke, leading to warnings to cut down.

Numerous studies have recognised the benefits of coffee in cutting oral and esophageal cancer, the risk of a stroke and cirrhosis of the liver. 

The benefits are often linked to biologically active compounds including caffeine, flavonoids, lignans, and other polyphenols, which benefit the body. These and othetr coffee compounds regulate genes involved in DNA repair, have anti-inflammatory properties and are associated with lower risk of insulin resistance, which is linked to type-2 diabetes.

But as doctors warn, too much of anything is inadvisable. The British Heart Foundation found the heaviest coffee drinkers in the study were most likely to be men who smoked and drank alcohol regularly.

Excessive amounts of coffee also unsettle the stomach causing or contributing to stomach ulcers. It also stains the teeth over time, hampers absorption of minerals and vitamins like zinc and iron.

It also raises blood pressure, which is largely problematic for people with existing conditions.

So the heaviest drinkers of the black stuff - some in the study had up to 25 cups per day - may want to rein it in.

Rory Reynolds

Hunger and Fury: The Crisis of Democracy in the Balkans
Jasmin Mujanović, Hurst Publishers

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