Lebanon's deficit hits Dh10.39bn


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Lebanon's budget deficit swelled during the first 11months of last year as debt repayments for reconstruction projects increased.

However, the country's long-standing political deadlock has helped to maintain levels of public spending and curb the national debt load as the economy charges ahead.

Figures released by the Lebanese ministry of finance show the country's deficit reached 4.27 trillion Lebanese pounds (Dh10.39 billion) in the year to November, an increase of 9.4 per cent on the same period the previous year.

Lebanon has not passed a budget since 2005 and the resulting freeze on new government spending has created a fertile environment for investors, said Dr Marwan Barakat, the chief economist at Bank Audi, a Lebanese bank.

"Since 2005-2006, what we've seen is an improvement in debt ratios [because of] the fact that the government has been spending less than otherwise. This has constrained expenditure, while public revenues have been benefiting from the growth in the country.

"This has given more positive signals to the [international] investor community," he added.

Lebanon has experienced an average real annual GDP growth rate of 8.5 per cent over the past four years.

However, Standard & Poor's, the credit rating agency, said in a report that it expected growth to stumble, falling to 6 per cent this year and 5.5 per cent next year.

The agency warned that the country's debt-to-GDP ratio was high, however, although it predicted a fallfrom an expected 133.4 per cent at present to 125.8 per cent by the end of the year.

Lebanon faces21tn pounds of maturing debt this year, according to data from Bloomberg, much of which was accumulated between the end of the civil war in 1990 and the end of the 2006 war with Israel.

"The bulk of the Lebanese debt is held by the Lebanese themselves - it's not foreign debt," Dr Barakat said. This made the country's debt much more stable, he said.

"The locals aren't waiting for the first crisis signal to get out of the country."

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Engine: 2.5-litre in-line four-cylinder

Power: 182hp @ 6,000rpm

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Transmission: Continuously variable tranmission

Fuel consumption, combined: 7.6L / 100km

Results

5pm: Al Maha Stables – Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 (Turf) 1,600m; Winner: Reem Baynounah, Fernando Jara (jockey), Mohamed Daggash (trainer)

5.30pm: Wathba Stallions Cup – Maiden (PA) Dh70,000 (T) 1,600m; Winner: AF Afham, Tadhg O’Shea, Ernst Oertel

6pm: Emirates Fillies Classic – Prestige (PA) Dh100,000 (T) 1,600m; Winner: Ghallieah, Sebastien Martino, Jean-Claude Pecout

6.30pm: Emirates Colts Classic – Prestige (PA) Dh100,000 (T) 1,600m; Winner: Yas Xmnsor, Saif Al Balushi, Khalifa Al Neyadi

7pm: The President’s Cup – Group 1 (PA) Dh2,500,000 (T) 2,200m; Winner: Somoud, Adrie de Vries, Jean de Roualle

7.30pm: The President’s Cup – Listed (TB) Dh380,000 (T) 1,400m; Winner: Haqeeqy, Dane O’Neill, John Hyde.

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Total fights: 32
Wins: 28
Wins by KO: 26
Losses: 4

The Baghdad Clock

Shahad Al Rawi, Oneworld

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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

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March 15 - Australia, Melbourne; March 22 - Bahrain, Sakhir; April 5 - Vietnam, Hanoi; April 19 - China, Shanghai; May 3 - Netherlands, Zandvoort; May 20 - Spain, Barcelona; May 24 - Monaco, Monaco; June 7 - Azerbaijan, Baku; June 14 - Canada, Montreal; June 28 - France, Le Castellet; July 5 - Austria, Spielberg; July 19 - Great Britain, Silverstone; August 2 - Hungary, Budapest; August 30 - Belgium, Spa; September 6 - Italy, Monza; September 20 - Singapore, Singapore; September 27 - Russia, Sochi; October 11 - Japan, Suzuka; October 25 - United States, Austin; November 1 - Mexico City, Mexico City; November 15 - Brazil, Sao Paulo; November 29 - Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi.

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