The UAE Government must be ready to cut back spending when the economy shows signs of overheating, the IMF says.
Its warning comes as oil prices hit post-downturn peaks and inflationary pressures edge higher.
More co-ordinated fiscal policy between each emirate was important, said an IMF adviser to the country.
"This is an important macroeconomic policy challenge for the UAE," said Taline Koranchelian, who led an IMF mission to the country this week.
"The high dependency on volatile hydrocarbon revenues underscores the need for strong demand management over the economic cycle."
Higher oil prices were a positive for the UAE by helping to bolster government reserves, said Ms Koranchelian after the conclusion of the annual mission.
But if prices remained high for a sustained period they risked smothering the economic recovery by impeding global growth, she said.
North Sea Brent crude briefly dipped below US$113 a barrel yesterday but had been rising in recent weeks because of unrest in parts of the Mena region.
Increasing inflationary pressures caused by higher commodity prices and rapid economic growth are stoking concerns about some emerging market economies overheating. Some economists have warned China, Russia and other economies risk a slowdown once governments start to raise interest rates.
High oil prices and a credit-fuelled property bubble led to accelerated growth in the UAE, especially Dubai, in the period up to 2008. The global credit crunch and a steep drop in oil prices put the brakes on expansion and caused a contraction in Dubai's economy.
The IMF says a contributing factor to the overheating and subsequent crisis was high government spending during the boom times.
Dubai, in particular, rolled out ambitious expenditure plans.
Instead of pro-cyclical fiscal policy - essentially spending during healthy economic times - the IMF supports a counter-cyclical fiscal stance. Such a policy encourages spending during downturns and a tightening of credit during inflationary periods.
The Federal Government has already made progress towards co-ordinating on spending with the establishment of a fiscal committee with representatives from each emirate.
It is also establishing a federal public debt unit to better regulate government debt. Until now, most borrowing has been undertaken at an emirate level. As a result, sovereign debt levels vary between each emirate.
But more could still be done, the IMF says.
"When you set up fiscal policy you determine your overall fiscal objective and this implies a certain amount of spending, which needs to be co-ordinated across the federal and emirate governments," Ms Koranchelian said.
The IMF raised its consumer price inflation forecast for this year to 4 per cent due to rising international food prices. But it said inflation was expected to remain moderate as housing rents continued to decline. Ms Koranchelian does not see any need to change the fixed exchange rate regime as the economy is in a low inflationary period and the US dollar peg has served the economy well.
[ tarnold@thenational.ae ]
The specs: 2018 Ducati SuperSport S
Price, base / as tested: Dh74,900 / Dh85,900
Engine: 937cc
Transmission: Six-speed gearbox
Power: 110hp @ 9,000rpm
Torque: 93Nm @ 6,500rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 5.9L / 100km
if you go
The flights
Etihad, Emirates and Singapore Airlines fly direct from the UAE to Singapore from Dh2,265 return including taxes. The flight takes about 7 hours.
The hotel
Rooms at the M Social Singapore cost from SG $179 (Dh488) per night including taxes.
The tour
Makan Makan Walking group tours costs from SG $90 (Dh245) per person for about three hours. Tailor-made tours can be arranged. For details go to www.woknstroll.com.sg
The specs
Powertrain: Single electric motor
Power: 201hp
Torque: 310Nm
Transmission: Single-speed auto
Battery: 53kWh lithium-ion battery pack (GS base model); 70kWh battery pack (GF)
Touring range: 350km (GS); 480km (GF)
Price: From Dh129,900 (GS); Dh149,000 (GF)
On sale: Now
WHAT IS A BLACK HOLE?
1. Black holes are objects whose gravity is so strong not even light can escape their pull
2. They can be created when massive stars collapse under their own weight
3. Large black holes can also be formed when smaller ones collide and merge
4. The biggest black holes lurk at the centre of many galaxies, including our own
5. Astronomers believe that when the universe was very young, black holes affected how galaxies formed
Our legal consultant
Name: Dr Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
SPECS
Engine: 1.5-litre turbo
Power: 181hp
Torque: 230Nm
Transmission: 6-speed automatic
Starting price: Dh79,000
On sale: Now
CHATGPT ENTERPRISE FEATURES
• Enterprise-grade security and privacy
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• Analytics dashboard for usage insights
• Free credits to use OpenAI APIs to extend OpenAI into a fully-custom solution for enterprises
Sly Cooper and the Thievius Raccoonus
Developer: Sucker Punch Productions
Publisher: Sony Computer Entertainment
Console: PlayStation 2 to 5
Rating: 5/5
Race card
1.30pm: Handicap (PA) Dh 50,000 (Dirt) 1,400m
2pm: Handicap (TB) Dh 84,000 (D) 1,400m
2.30pm: Maiden (TB) Dh 60,000 (D) 1,200m
3pm: Conditions (TB) Dh 100,000 (D) 1.950m
3.30pm: Handicap (TB) Dh 76,000 (D) 1,800m
4pm: Maiden (TB) Dh 60,000 (D) 1,600m
4.30pm: Handicap (TB) Dh 68,000 (D) 1,000m
More coverage from the Future Forum
India squad for fourth and fifth Tests
Kohli (c), Dhawan, Rahul, Shaw, Pujara, Rahane (vc), Karun, Karthik (wk), Pant (wk), Ashwin, Jadeja, Pandya, Ishant, Shami, Umesh, Bumrah, Thakur, Vihari
The Details
Kabir Singh
Produced by: Cinestaan Studios, T-Series
Directed by: Sandeep Reddy Vanga
Starring: Shahid Kapoor, Kiara Advani, Suresh Oberoi, Soham Majumdar, Arjun Pahwa
Rating: 2.5/5
Confirmed bouts (more to be added)
Cory Sandhagen v Umar Nurmagomedov
Nick Diaz v Vicente Luque
Michael Chiesa v Tony Ferguson
Deiveson Figueiredo v Marlon Vera
Mackenzie Dern v Loopy Godinez
Tickets for the August 3 Fight Night, held in partnership with the Department of Culture and Tourism Abu Dhabi, went on sale earlier this month, through www.etihadarena.ae and www.ticketmaster.ae.
Company Profile
Company name: Namara
Started: June 2022
Founder: Mohammed Alnamara
Based: Dubai
Sector: Microfinance
Current number of staff: 16
Investment stage: Series A
Investors: Family offices
Barbie
Director: Greta Gerwig
Stars: Margot Robbie, Ryan Gosling, Will Ferrell, America Ferrera
Rating: 4/5
Company Profile
Name: HyveGeo
Started: 2023
Founders: Abdulaziz bin Redha, Dr Samsurin Welch, Eva Morales and Dr Harjit Singh
Based: Cambridge and Dubai
Number of employees: 8
Industry: Sustainability & Environment
Funding: $200,000 plus undisclosed grant
Investors: Venture capital and government
Guns N’ Roses’s last gig before Abu Dhabi was in Hong Kong on November 21. We were there – and here’s what they played, and in what order. You were warned.
- It’s So Easy
- Mr Brownstone
- Chinese Democracy
- Welcome to the Jungle
- Double Talkin’ Jive
- Better
- Estranged
- Live and Let Die (Wings cover)
- Slither (Velvet Revolver cover)
- Rocket Queen
- You Could Be Mine
- Shadow of Your Love
- Attitude (Misfits cover)
- Civil War
- Coma
- Love Theme from The Godfather (movie cover)
- Sweet Child O’ Mine
- Wichita Lineman (Jimmy Webb cover)
- Wish You Were Here (instrumental Pink Floyd cover)
- November Rain
- Black Hole Sun (Soundgarden cover)
- Knockin’ on Heaven’s Door (Bob Dylan cover)
- Nightrain
Encore:
- Patience
- Don’t Cry
- The Seeker (The Who cover)
- Paradise City
COMPANY PROFILE
Company name: Revibe
Started: 2022
Founders: Hamza Iraqui and Abdessamad Ben Zakour
Based: UAE
Industry: Refurbished electronics
Funds raised so far: $10m
Investors: Flat6Labs, Resonance and various others
The biog
Favourite hobby: taking his rescue dog, Sally, for long walks.
Favourite book: anything by Stephen King, although he said the films rarely match the quality of the books
Favourite film: The Shawshank Redemption stands out as his favourite movie, a classic King novella
Favourite music: “I have a wide and varied music taste, so it would be unfair to pick a single song from blues to rock as a favourite"
MATCH INFO
Inter Milan 2 (Vecino 65', Barella 83')
Verona 1 (Verre 19' pen)
Brief scores:
Toss: Sindhis, elected to field first
Kerala Knights 103-7 (10 ov)
Parnell 59 not out; Tambe 5-15
Sindhis 104-1 (7.4 ov)
Watson 50 not out, Devcich 49
More from Neighbourhood Watch:
Company profile
Company name: Fasset
Started: 2019
Founders: Mohammad Raafi Hossain, Daniel Ahmed
Based: Dubai
Sector: FinTech
Initial investment: $2.45 million
Current number of staff: 86
Investment stage: Pre-series B
Investors: Investcorp, Liberty City Ventures, Fatima Gobi Ventures, Primal Capital, Wealthwell Ventures, FHS Capital, VN2 Capital, local family offices
How I connect with my kids when working or travelling
Little notes: My girls often find a letter from me, with a joke, task or some instructions for the afternoon, and saying what I’m excited for when I get home.
Phone call check-in: My kids know that at 3.30pm I’ll be free for a quick chat.
Highs and lows: Instead of a “how was your day?”, at dinner or at bathtime we share three highlights; one thing that didn’t go so well; and something we’re looking forward to.
I start, you next: In the morning, I often start a little Lego project or drawing, and ask them to work on it while I’m gone, then we’ll finish it together.
Bedtime connection: Wake up and sleep time are important moments. A snuggle, some proud words, listening, a story. I can’t be there every night, but I can start the day with them.
Undivided attention: Putting the phone away when I get home often means sitting in the car to send a last email, but leaving it out of sight between home time and bedtime means you can connect properly.
Demystify, don’t demonise your job: Help them understand what you do, where and why. Show them your workplace if you can, then it’s not so abstract when you’re away - they’ll picture you there. Invite them into your “other” world so they know more about the different roles you have.
RESULTS
Time; race; prize; distance
4pm: Maiden; (D) Dh150,000; 1,200m
Winner: General Line, Xavier Ziani (jockey), Omar Daraj (trainer)
4.35pm: Maiden (T); Dh150,000; 1,600m
Winner: Travis County, Adrie de Vries, Ismail Mohammed
5.10pm: Handicap (D); Dh175,000; 1,200m
Winner: Scrutineer, Tadhg O’Shea, Ali Rashid Al Raihe
5.45pm: Maiden (D); Dh150,000; 1,600m
Winner: Yulong Warrior, Richard Mullen, Satish Seemar
6.20pm: Maiden (D); Dh150,000; 1,600m
Winner: Ejaaby, Jim Crowley, Doug Watson
6.55pm: Handicap (D); Dh160,000; 1,600m
Winner: Storyboard, Richard Mullen, Satish Seemar
7.30pm: Handicap (D); Dh150,000; 2,200m
Winner: Grand Dauphin, Gerald Mosse, Ahmed Al Shemaili
8.05pm: Handicap (T); Dh190,000; 1,800m
Winner: Good Trip, Tadhg O’Shea, Ali Rashid Al Raihe
Top 10 most competitive economies
1. Singapore
2. Switzerland
3. Denmark
4. Ireland
5. Hong Kong
6. Sweden
7. UAE
8. Taiwan
9. Netherlands
10. Norway
The Super Mario Bros Movie
Directors: Aaron Horvath and Michael Jelenic
Stars: Chris Pratt, Anya Taylor-Joy, Charlie Day, Jack Black, Seth Rogen and Keegan-Michael Key
Rating: 1/5