Wind power capacity to double over the next decade

China will make up 44% of total installed wind capacity growth by 2028, Fitch Solutions says

Wind power's share of the total non-hydro renewables capacity will drop to 44 per cent by 2028 because of rapid growth in solar power capacity, Fitch Solutions said. Bloomberg

Wind power capacity is expected to nearly double over the next decade, fuelled mainly by China as the world's biggest energy consumer seeks to invest in renewable sources, according to Fitch Solutions. 
Installed wind power capacity will reach about 1,100 gigawatts globally by 2028, up from 562GW at the end of 2018, according to the industry forecast report.

"China will make up 44 of net capacity growth over this timeframe, highlighting the importance of the market to global renewables investment," the report said.

Renewable energy capacity addition grew 14.5 per cent last year, nearing the record-breaking increase seen in 2017, but still accounted for only a third of the increase in power generation, BP said in its annual statistical review, an important bellwether for the global energy industry. BP chief executive Bob Dudley said installing renewables is key to “decarbonising the power sector”, which is the biggest challenge facing the global energy system over the next two decades.

Wind power's share of the total non-hydro renewables capacity will drop to 44 per cent by 2028, down from 47 per cent in 2018, mainly due to the rapid growth in solar power capacity, Fitch Solutions said. In a separate note, the firm said solar power capacity growth is set to increase by 742GW over the period, whereas wind power will grow by 536GW. Total non-hydro renewable energy will reach more than 2,500GW by 2028, more than doubling from 1,200GW at the end of last year.

However, the wind power sector will maintain a "steady share" in power generation, which will only decline by 1 per cent, to 49 per cent, over the same period.

This is "indicative of the generally higher capacity factors of wind power projects vis-a-vis solar power projects", the report said.

China will become the biggest market globally for wind power capacity addition over the next decade, even despite plans to cut renewable power subsidies by 30 per cent in 2020.

"China's wind sector growth momentum will remain robust despite the imminent phase-out of subsidies for the country's renewables sector," Fitch Solutions said.

The research firm's optimistic outlook is driven by the "rising scope" for wind power projects to compete with coal-fired power in the market, the report said.

The total installed wind power capacity in Asia will overtake the combined total of North America and Western Europe by 2023, driven by rapid capacity growth in China, according to the forecast. China is projected to add a total of 237GW of wind power capacity between the end of last year and 2028.

The US will add 71GW of wind capacity over the coming decade, making it the second fastest expanding wind power market globally, supported by corporate procurement deals.

In Western Europe, wind power will play a major role in boosting the region's plans to rise the share of renewable energy in power generation and phase-out coal over the next 10 years.

"The rising cost-competitiveness and attractiveness of offshore wind power will be a key factor for continued wind power generation growth over our forecast period," Fitch Solutions said.

Western European markets make up four of Fitch's 10 fastest growing wind power markets globally, with Germany positioned in fourth, adding more than 32GW, the United Kingdom fifth with 20GW, France sixth adding 13GW and Spain ninth, with 9GW.